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Rio 2016 Olympic Previews: Phelps Chasing 4-Straight In Men’s 100 Fly

Men’s 100 Fly

The 2016 Rio Olympics has set the stage for an epic men’s 100 fly showdown, with the defending Olympic champion and World Record holder, reigning world champion, Junior World Record holder, and several other international stars.

The battle between Olympic champ Michael Phelps and world champ Chad le Clos has been highly anticipated since they traded blows in the fly events in 2012. Le Clos pulled off the upset in the 200 fly, dethroning Phelps before the latter came back to win the 100 fly. Tensions have run high since Phelps came out of retirement, with the two clearly keeping each other in mind last summer.

Le Clos was crowned World Champion in 2015 after he won the 100 fly with a scorching 50.56, making him the fastest man in the world for 2015 to that point. After his gold medal performance, Le Clos aimed a little bit of smack talk towards Phelps. Though he was absent from Worlds after a DUI and some time in rehab earlier in the year, Phelps fired back at U.S. Nationals later that day with a 50.45 to unseat Le Clos as the fastest man of 2015.

Chad-Le-Clos-WCH-by-Peter-Sukenik-www.petersukenik.com-2608

Chad Le Clos (Photo: Peter Sukenik)

This year, neither of them has broken 51 yet, but Phelps currently sits at 2nd in the world with his 51.00 from U.S. Olympic Trials. Le Clos season best is a 51.09, which currently has him sitting 3rd in the rankings. It’s likely that we’ll see them push each other under their respective season bests, as both have plenty of motivation. Le Clos has been working to cement his status as the world’s best butterflier since 2012. Phelps, on the other hand, will be looking for an unprecedented fourpeat after taking the title in 2004, 2008, and 2012.

There to potentially break up the Phelps-Le Clos party will be Hungary’s Laszlo Cseh, who was the silver medalist at worlds last summer. Cseh has typically been more competitive in the 200 fly, but he’s recently become a major player in the shorter distance as well.  He currently holds the fastest time of 2016 with his 50.86 from the European Championships. That’s a best time for Cseh, who has been a medalist at every Olympics since he first represented Hungary at the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens.

Joseph Schooling celebrates his record-setting win in the 200 fly. (Photo Courtesy: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Joseph Schooling (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Singapore’s Joseph Schooling secured the first ever World Championships medal for his country last season with a bronze in this event. Schooling is based in Austin, Texas, where he trains under Eddie Reese at the University of Texas. His new Asian Record of 50.96 from last summer was his first time under 51, and his upward momentum makes him a serious medal threat. Schooling cleared the U.S. Open record at NCAAs with a 44.01 in the yards version of this event this season, and followed suit with an impressive long course win against Phelps at the Longhorn Elite Invite, where he swam a 51.58 that puts him 13th in the World Rankings.

Another young star looking to make his mark in Rio is China’s 17-year-old Li Zhuhao, who placed 8th at last summer’s World Championships. Zhuhao broke his own Junior World Record and tied the Chinese National Record this year at Chinese nationals, where he set his personal best at 51.24. That was his first ever Chinese national title, and potentially a good sign of what’s to come.

Tom Shields, Photo credit Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com

Tom Shields (Photo: Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com)

Qualifying for Rio behind Phelps in this event was Tom Shields, who will make his first Olympic appearance for the USA after finishing 2nd in both butterfly events in Omaha. Shields just missed the podium at Worlds last summer by a tenth, and his personal best is a 51.03 from semifinals at that meet. Shields posted a 51.20 at trials to earn the bid over a tight field, and could improve on his 4th place finish from last summer if he breaks the 51-barrier.

France’s Mehdy Metella swam a 51.70 at French Nationals this year to qualify for Rio, and his personal best 51.24 puts him in the mix for a top 8 finish. He swam that 51.24 at the 2015 World Championships where he placed 5th, just a nail ahead of Poland’s Konrad Czerniak, who finished in 51.28. Czerniak has already bettered that time this season, putting up a 51.22 at the 2016 European Championships to set himself up well for the Olympics.

The Italian duo of Piero Codia and Matteo Rivolta could make a push for a finals swim after taking the top 2 spots at Italian Nationals this year. Codia has been slightly better so far, clocking a 51.42 to place him 9th in the rankings, compared to Rivolta’s 51.54 for 11th. Sitting between the two is Russia’s Alexander Sadovnikov, who enters Rio with a 51.50 from 2016 Russian Nationals.

Men’s 100 Fly Top 8 Predictions:

Place Swimmer Country Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) Predicted Time
1 Michael Phelps USA 50.45 50.3
2 Chad Le Clos RSA 50.56 50.4
3 Joseph Schooling SIN 50.96 50.7
4 Laszlo Cseh HUN 50.86 50.7
5 Tom Shields USA 51.03 50.9
6 Li Zhuhao CHN 51.24 51.1
7 Konrad Czerniak POL 51.22 51.1
8 Mehdy Metella FRA 51.24 51.2

Darkhorse: While better known for his backstroke talent, France’s Jeremy Stravius broke the French National Record with a 50.06 in the SCM version of the 100 fly in 2013, and has continued to progress his 100 fly in meters. Stravius will make an appearance in this event in Rio after clocking a 51.66 at the French Open Championships, and currently sits at 15th in the 2016 World Rankings.

Check out all of our 2016 Rio Olympic Previews here

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Sir Swimsalot
8 years ago

Le Clos is young and has more ahead of him. This is Phelp’s last Olympics; ideally, I would like Phelps to take the gold.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Sir Swimsalot
8 years ago

This is the same reason I want Plummer to beat Murphy and Larkin.

Daza
8 years ago

I would like to see a Singapore Gold.
So
1: Joe Schooling
2: Chad Le Close
3: Michael Phelps

Rylo
8 years ago

Phelps wants it bad- you have to back in the goat. Lazio the smokey..

phelps swims 200 breast rio
8 years ago

Phelps 50.07
Cseh 50.21
Shields 50.57

Q-tip
8 years ago

This ones just too hard to call…but i do want ohelps to win, if not him then schooling

Myshkin
Reply to  Q-tip
8 years ago

1 Michael Phelps
2 Joe Schooling
3 Boomer Phelps

Penguin
8 years ago

100 fly schooling will go under 50

Penguin
Reply to  Penguin
8 years ago

or a 50.01 and cry at the medal ceremony about losing his legs

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Penguin
8 years ago

Or a 50.00

Penguin
Reply to  Penguin
8 years ago

Phelps will win though. He will be 8th at the 50 and second by a body length at the flags coming into the finish and then use his Magical Olympian GOATy touch to reach past Jo schooling’s tightening-up torso to win in 49.99 to schoolings 50.0 as he sprays water in everyone’s face.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Penguin
8 years ago

I’m not sure he’ll be last. Maybe. I consider a 50.1 a world record. 49.8 is an incredible time. But Phelps was wearing lzr full body.

Jimi
8 years ago

Just how late in their broadcast do you suppose NBC will keep us hostage to witness the 100 fly final?

completelyconquered
Reply to  Jimi
8 years ago

I’m definitely not looking forward to the late nights watching the Olympics and then going to work the next morning.

TNM
8 years ago

One thing should be pointed out: Phelps swam 15 races before the 100 fly finals in 2004 and 2008 Olympics and 12 races in 2012 London.

In Rio, he’ll only have swum 10 races (8 if he doesn’t swim the free relays) before the 100 fly finals. He is going to have more energy during 100 fly unlike the previous Olympics so he may win by a handful of tenths ahead of second place.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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