Top Headlines
1) Phelps shoots for a record – The men’s 100 fly will be the first shot we’ll see at one of the races we highlighted earlier this week as a World Record candidates. Phelps went a 50.65 at Nationals, which is the best time in the world by over a second. The World Record stands at 49.82, meaning Phelps needs to lop off just over eight-tenths to break his own mark. If it’s any indicator, he dropped 1.12 seconds off of his 200 fly time, with bad turns. If he can hit his turn, he might shoot for the mark. If it matters, our ever-intelligent readers feel that he has the best chance of breaking a World Record.
2) Men’s 400 free relay – This race should be much more competitive than either of the 800 free relays that took place on night 2. While the Americans are still the favorites, led by Adrian and Lochte, the Australians counter with Eamon Sullivan and Kyle Richardson. If the Aussie’s get juiced up here, they could give the Americans a run.
3) Lochte going almost back-to-back – Lochte has been swimming out of his mind at this meet. On Day 3, he is entered in the 200 back, and as the runner-up at Nationals in the 100 free will likely swim the 400 free relay as well. The problem is that the A-finals for these two events will be separated by only 2 heats of breaststroke and 1 heat of a 400 free relay. That comes to roughly 5 minutes of swimming, 5 minutes of fluff, and 10 minutes of medal ceremonies. This quick turnaround could be a big factor in the relay.
4) Women’s 400 free – This race will feature the American Record holder Katie Hoff, The Australian Record holder Bronte Barrett, and a huge mass of their teammates who will be battling for spots in the finals. The top 8 times in the prelims should all be Aussie’s and Americans, so the medal hopefuls are going to have to go full-out to even secure a spot in the B-final, let alone the A.
5) Women’s 200 back – 8 out of the top 10 swimmers in the world will be swimming in this race. All 8 have best times within .71. This race will come down to nothing more than who’s in the best shape.
The Picks
Women’s 400 free
- Katie Hoff (USA)
- Bronte Barratt (AUS)
- Chloe Sutton (USA)
Breakdown: The prelims of this race will almost be more exciting than the final. In the morning, there will be at least 8 medal contenders from Australia and the USA. In the finals session, there will only be 4. These picks are fully interchangable between any number of these swimmers’ teammates, but Hoff was the American Champion and has had a huge rebirth training in California. Barratt, the Australian Record holder, and Hoff have gone identical 4:05.50’s this season, with the difference being that Barratt’s was done at a full taper, whereas Hoff’s was not. Sutton and Schmitt have both been incredible this week, but I think Sutton takes the A-final spot in the slightly longer race, with Schmitt getting stuck in the B-final.
Men’s 400 free
- Peter Vanderkaay (USA)
- Tae Hwan Park (SKOR)
- Takeshi Matsuda (JAP)
Breakdown: This has been Vanderkaay’s go-to event lately, and I think he’ll rock it with his full taper to a 3:45-low. Tae Hwan Park is the defending Olympic Champion in this event, but is still too far off of his taper to recreate the 3:45.03 he went in February. After Ous Mellouli bombing the 1500 and scratching the 400 IM, the bronze medal position is pretty wide-open. Takeshi Matsuda, who is seeded at a slower time than his season’s best, will steal the bronze.
Women’s 100 fly
- Dana Vollmer (USA)
- Christine Magnuson (USA)
- Jessicah Schipper (AUS)
Breakdown: Vollmer and Magnuson are the only two swimmers in the field who have gone 57’s this year, with Magnuson’s 57.32 tied for best in the world and Vollmer just back at 57.39. This battle will come down to these two again, just like at Nationals, and I think Vollmer pulls it off this time. The bronze medal position will come down to a battle between Schipper, Felicity Galvez, and Yolane Kukla, all of Australia. I take Schipper, who has the mental edge as the Australian Record holder.
Men’s 100 fly
- Michael Phelps (USA)
- Andrew Lauterstein (AUS)
- Kairo Marcio Almeida (BRA)
Breakdown: Phelps will take a run at the WR here, but I think he’ll come just shy at around a 50.1. He’ll certainly win the race, as Lauterstein (the second seed) went slower at Worlds in a rubber suit than Phelps went 2 weeks ago in a Jammer. Lauterstein has a good shot at second, as he’s the 3rd fastest in the world this year. Almeida, despite being ranked only 39th in the world this year, will be fully blazing. In what should be a tight final for 3rd-8th, I think Almeida will find a way to get to the wall for the bronze.
Women’s 200 back
- Belinda Hocking (AUS)
- Elizabeth Beisel (USA)
- Shiho Sakai (JAP)
Breakdown: 8 out of the top 10 women the World will swim this race, made up of 4 Australians, 3 Japanese, and 2 Americans. Hocking won Australian Nationals, and I like her to win here. Beisel was outstanding in the 400 IM, and has the easiest path of the contenders to the final. That makes her a safe pick to medal, as she can rest more in prelims, where her only real goal is to beat Missy Franklin and place in the top 15 or so. Sakai swam a 2:07.99 in June, off her taper. She’ll still be fast, even though she’s probably shooting for November and the Asian Games.
Men’s 200 back
- Ryan Lochte (USA)
- Ryosuke Irie (JAP)
- Aaron Peirsol (USA)
- Tyler Clary (USA)
Breakdown: Based on how he’s been swimming this week, Lochte wins this if he swims it. He may consider a scratch to rest for the 400 free relay two events later. If not, I like Irie’s odds. He’s young enough (20) to swim fast here even without a full taper. Peirsol, if he avoids a prelims letdown, is always tough in this event, which is his better of the two backstrokes. Clary will be the beneficiary if Lochte scratches.
Women’s 50 breast
- Rebecca Soni (USA)
- Jessica Hardy (USA)
- Leisel Jones (AUS)
Breakdown: Soni, as has been discussed, is on fire in the breaststroke events right now. By virtue of it not being a part of the typical American swimming schedule, the 50 is probably her weakest distance, but she’s still the best. If she’s going to lose a breaststroke event, it will be this one to Hardy. Hardy, who we already know is an amazing breaststroke, has worked very hard on her sprinting in general, which should make her very good when combining the two. Jones will be right in there too. This could be a very exciting race that comes down to who finishes on the right part of their stroke.
Men’s 50 breast
- Kosuke Kitajima (JAP)
- Brenton Rickard (AUS)
- Felipe Silva (BRA)
Breakdown: Kitajima is the fastest in the world so far in this event, and after his performance in the 100 yesterday, I think he drops that time even futher and becomes the first swimmer to go under 27-seconds in textile. Rickard won’t have to sneak into the final this time. The Brazilians have become so good in the 50 meter events, and Silva will show that here.
Women’s 400 free relay
- USA
- Australia
- Japan
Breakdown: The American women are so deep in the 100 free, that their B- relay might be in the top 3 fastest times. The A will pull off an easy win. Australia will be second. Japan will be third. This will be a pretty straightforward and predictable race.
Men’s 400 free relay
- USA
- Australia
- Brazil
Breakdown: The big X-factors here are Ryan Lochte, depending on how well he recovers after the 200 back, and whoever is the fourth swimmer into the Australian squad (behind Sullivan, Richardson, and Magnussen). That 4th guy for the Aussie’s will have to pull of an great leg, in the mid-48 range, for Australia to have a chance. I pick Brazil and their ever-growing crew of sprinters grab the bronze medal over the Japanese. If South Africa found a 4th swimmer, they’d give the Brazilians and Australians a run for their money, but as it is they don’t have a relay entered.