2012 NCAA Women’s Championship Preview: Day 1

With the women’s NCAA Championship meet just a week away, we’ll continue our buildup with the first round of women’s predictions. We’ll kick things off by picking the day 1 events.

This year, we’ll pick the top 5, along with a darkhorse (or two). As always, darkhorses aren’t the swimmers who have the lowest seeds that might win; they’re the swimmers who are outside of the primary discussion that might sneak in for a top two-or-three spot.

Day 1 of this meet will hit the ground running, as some of the biggest names in this meet will be swimming some of their primary events. That includes Anna Vanderpool-Wallace’s run at sub-21, and the 200 IM featuring defending Swimmer of the Year Katinka Hosszu, World Champion Elizabeth Beisel, and a pair of budding American superstars in Maya DiRado and Caitlin Leverenz.

200 Free Relay

1. Arizona Wildcats (#5 seed)
2. Auburn Tigers (#2 seed)
3. Stanford Cardinal (#1 seed)
4. Cal Golden Bears (#9 seed)
5. Texas Longhorns (#6 seed)
Darkhorse: Missouri Tigers (#3 seed)

Rationale: Arizona was the runner’s-up last season with four freshmen on their relay. Their back and way better, with Emma Darlington bringing them some serious experience (she was injured last year, but is a phenomenal relay swimmer. That also gives the Wildcats some serious options – Kait Flederbach went sub-22 on this relay at last year’s meet and couldn’t even crack the lineup. Cal, the defending champions, have lost their options, but still have the country’s second-best sprinter in Liv Jensen. Auburn has the first – and they weren’t at all rested for SEC’s, yet still gut a sub-21 split from Vanderpool-Wallace.

Who saw Missouri as the 3^rd seed in this relay, or any, after not qualifying a single relay for last year’s meet? Here’s why this relay could be very good: most of their individual bests were swum in December, but this relay still cut off a second to become Big 12 Champions (for the first and last time ever on a relay).

500 Free

1. Haley Anderson (USC – #4 seed)
2. Alyssa Anderson (Arizona  – #5 seed)
3. Stephanie Peacock (North Carolina – #2 seed)
4. Wendy Trott (Georgia – #3 seed)
5. Ashley Steenvoorden (Minnesota – #6 seed)
Darkhorse: Cammile Adams (Texas A&M – #14 seed)

Rationale: Haley Anderson is on a mission. She’s really worked hard on her endurance since last year, which should help her closing speed at this year’s meet. Both she and sister Alyssa will have the challenge of a good finals swims – they both have had trouble finishing off afternoon swims in the past. Stephanie Peacock had her best time back in November, so she’s had the most time to build back to top form, and should avoid the trap she hit at last year’s NCAA meet.

Cammile Adams is best recognized for her 200 fly, but she won the B-Final of this race last year in the 6^th-best time overall. With more experience under her belt this year, she should be able to make the A-Final and then do some damage. Georgia’s Shannon Vreeland is also a good darkhorse pick.

200 IM

1. Katinka Hosszu (USC – #1 seed)
2. Caitlin Leverenz (Cal – #2 seed)
3. Maya DiRado (Stanford – #3 seed)
4. Elizabeth Beisel (Florida – #4 seed)
5. Melanie Margalis (Georgia – #6 seed)
Darkhorse: Meghan Hawthorne (USC – #13 seed)

Rationale: This is the first-half of the “race of the meet” (along with a very similar field in the 400 IM). Elizabeth Beisel made the smart decision and swapped the 500 free for the 200 IM this season. Still, in yards and without an Olympic Trials to worry about, Hosszu takes this race but it should be a much closer battle than last year. Leverenz didn’t have a great nationals last year, but has grown into an entirely different swimmer since then.

Good luck breaking into this top 6 (along with Indiana’s Allysa Vavra), but Meghan Hawthorne is going to have a good meet. She had huge potential coming out of high school, but had a rough freshman year. This year she’s plowed through her sophomore season and is already much faster than she was all of last year.

50 Free

1. Anna Vanderpool-Wallace (Auburn – #1 seed)
2. Liv Jensen (Cal – #2 seed)
3. Margo Geer (Arizona – #3 seed)
4. Betsy Webb (Stanford – #6 seed)
5. Sara Bateman (Florida – #4 seed)
Darkhorse: Bethany Adams (Texas – #36 seed)

Rationale: It’s not hard to give this win to V-W. She was unshaved and had only the slightest of rest preceding the SEC Championships and at the very least relay-split faster than 21. Unless she breaks an ankle, nobody’s going to catch her. Geer versus Jensen will be an awesome battle for 2^nd, but Jensen has the history of showing up in finals races so she gets the nod. Amanda Kendall’s broken hand reshapes this race.

Adams might seem like a stretch, especially after how Texas swam at Big 12’s. But despite some struggles, their sprinters still swam well.

400 Medley Relay

1. Cal (#1 seed)
2. Arizona (#2 seed)
3. Auburn (#6 seed)
4. Tennessee (#3 seed)
5. Texas A&M (#4 seed)
Darkhorse: Stanford (#10 seed)

Rationale: Good luck catching Cal. They’ve got a top three swimmer in every stroke. The Golden Bears and Arizona are the only truly complete relays in this field (Arizona moves into that category with Lauren Smart on the butterfly leg). Auburn is a really good relay, and again they have Anna V-W on the anchor (splitting a 45 more than likely). Tennessee has gotten a big breaststroke replacement from Molly freshman Molly Hannis, and the rest of the relay is loaded with veterans. A&M is still an incredibly young relay with four sophomores, and with a true sprint anchor would be challenging Arizona for 2^nd. This is another situation (like with Adams above) where inexperience caught them last year and left them in the B-Final. With three new legs this season, it’s just as good, but also equally inexperienced.

Stanford has the motivation of a need to swim better in this relay than they did last year. They’ve shuffled their order around, Sam Woodward is swimming well,  Felicia Lee has to be swimming better, and they’ve still got a great anchor is Kate Dwelley.