2013 Men’s NCAA Championships: Day 2 Up/Downs

Backing up what we saw in our day 2 prelims recap, neither Cal nor Michigan had a spectacular day on Friday morning, with Michigan losing two A-finalists and Cal turning two B-Finalists into A-finalists (a good result, but not as good probably as they needed).

This is a day, though, where Up/Downs probably tell a better story than prelims scoring vs. psych scoring. That’s because there were so many guys swimming 2 and 3 (and sometimes 4) races on this day, that energy-conservation-mode was at a peak. Guys like Tom Shields were doing whatever they could just to get into the final without blowing too much energy; further, it’s hard to imagine that a race like the 400 IM will see all of those A-finalists being able to repeat their lofty morning times, so it’s hard to predict how a few guys falling out will shake-up the rest of the top 8.

Arizona continues to have good swims and move up, as they’ll have three more scorers than projected swimming tonight. The Indiana Hoosiers are playing this meet out with great strategy; they might have liked to get their medleys into the A-final, but short of that, things are working out well as they turned two of their projected B-Finalists into A-finalists.

USC is having a great day, especially in the 200 free where Cristian Quintero and Dimitri Colupaev are the top two seeds.

Note that the “TOTAL” column below doesn’t include the 800 free relay, since there are no prelims in that event. Michigan’s 200 freestylers looked solid, though not overwhelmingly-good, in the individual 200. They’re the top seed in the 800 free relay by a fair margin, and though a win would be nice, beating Cal (who’ll have Tom Shields on their relay) is imperative.

Florida was hurt bad by the DQ of Sebastien Rousseau in the 400 IM, a race where a top-3 finish was probable for him. In total, the Gators have one more swimmer in finals tonight than seeded, but too many bumped down into the B-Final. That should counteract the DQ by Stanford’s 400 medley relay, and with Arizona, USC, and Texas continuing to move up create a huge traffic jam for the 3rd-place team position.

The 800 free relay tonight should have a big impact. Arizona is not seeded in the top 8, but if the performance of their women’s team is any predictor of how the men’s team will do, the Wildcats should be moving way up. After that, Michigan, Cal, Florida, Texas, and USC will be at the top of the pile, and those are the teams jockeying for position.

We’ve been asked by a few people if it looks like there’s any chance that someone could come up and bump Michigan or Cal off for a top two spot. Pre-meet, Florida and Stanford would’ve been the two teams who could’ve done that. Arizona maybe could if they keep putting a bunch of people in A-finals and winning relays, but it still appears as though this is a two-team battle.

In the lower tiers of teams, Iowa continues to be a significant outperformer. They weren’t expected to score any points on the second day of this meet, but ended up getting two B-Final swims: including another medley relay.

The Virginia men will turn to their 200 free relay on Friday evening, as that looks like it might be their best chance to score swimming points at this meet. The Cavaliers swam better on Friday than they did on Thursday, but still didn’t earn any second swims. (Update after diving – Virignia diver JB Kolod made the B-Final on the platform, so the Cavs will score tonight regardless of what happens in the relay).

Don’t forget that Indiana, Auburn, and Stanford (among the top teams) still have big diving points to come on tonight’s 3-meter. Gross up Stanford’s up/downs by at least 1/1 for diving, Indiana’s by at least 0/2, and Auburn’s by at least 0/1 (though John Santeiu gets better as the boards get higher).

Note: Teams in green significantly improved from seed, teams in red significantly worsened from seed. “Ups” refers to a swimmer in the A-Final, who is guaranteed to finish 1-8, barring a DQ. “Downs” refers to a swimmer in the B-Final, who is guaranteed to finish 9-16, barring a DQ.