2013 Men’s NCAA Championships: Day 3 Up/Downs

Here are the “Ups” and “Downs” for the final day of the 2013 Men’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships.

These numbers are a good baseline figure to estimate how many points a team has the potential to score in a finals session. It’s not as exact of a representation of the finals as scoring is (though, thanks to Price V. Fishback, we’ve got those numbers too), but given how much things typically change between prelims to finals (“outside smoke”) it’s sort of a broader representation.

If you don’t include the mile because of the lack of certainty (our table below doesn’t), Cal has one more scorer tonight: an extra B-finalist to be precise. That, of course, is ignoring the mile, where Michigan is seeded to have 4 scorers, including three in the top 8. Even if the Wolverines distance group doesn’t quite live up to that, we know that Connor Jaeger will be in the top 5 somewhere. It would be a shock if the Wolverines don’t get at least three total scorers, given how the mile tends to drop off after about the top 10. Even if someone from Michigan adds time (this is a worst case scenario), then they won’t likely fall much below the top 16.

Moral of the story, with a 34-point cushion, even if things go badly for Michigan tonight, it looks nearly impossible for Michigan to lose. If we assume Jaeger falls no lower than 5th, no DQ’s, and that none of the other Michigan milers score, then the fewest number of points the Wolverines can score is 83. The most that Cal can score is 124. That’s +41 points, which would give Cal a 6.5 point win in an absolutely perfect scenario. So if you’re a Golden Bears fan, that’s where your hope lies.

In terms of the fight for 3rd, Florida has the most A-finalists, but Stanford matches them in total scorers. Add to that three scorers on platform (one in the A and two in the B), and the Cardinal still have some chance to make up the 65-point gap on Arizona. The Wildcats only have four scorers, but with the 1-2 seeds in the 200 breaststroke, for example, they should be high scorers. Arizona also has an A-Finalist on the platform: Rafael Quintero.

Here’s just a quick reminder of the top 10 headed into the meet’s final day.

1. Michigan 336
2. California 301.5
3. Arizona 234.5
4. Southern Cali 212
5. Florida 196.5
6. Texas 192
7. Stanford 169
8. Auburn 167.5
9. Indiana 151
10. Georgia 106