Just as we did with the women’s NCAA Championship meet, we created three graphs to breakdown the team race. The men’s meet is expected to much closer than the women’s meet was. There are seven teams in the men’s team race this year. USC is the favorite if you only look at the psych sheet, but we expect the meet to very close with Texas after diving is added in. The top seven teams include USC, Texas, Florida, Michigan, NC State, California, and Georgia.
Texas should have three divers at the meet, compared to USC’s four, if they choose to bring all of their divers. It is always challenging to predict diving without a psych sheet, but as you can see in the third graph, we expect Texas’s divers to bump Texas into first place this weekend. We made our best effort to predict the results of diving as well based on last year’s results and the results from the Zone Championships. Below is a picture of a graph for each day and below it is a chart with the specific numbers for the above graph.
NCAA Men’s Championships – Day 1
| Teams | 200 Fr Relay | 500 Free | 200 IM | 50 Free | 1M Diving | 400 medley |
| Southern Cali | 24 | 57 | 57 | 65 | 69 | 103 |
| Texas | 28 | 44 | 73 | 75 | 114 | 140 |
| Florida | 9 | 42 | 53 | 70 | 70 | 100 |
| Michigan | 26 | 35 | 56 | 68 | 68 | 100 |
| NC State | 40 | 52 | 52 | 89 | 89 | 103 |
| California | 30 | 30 | 59 | 65 | 65 | 93 |
| Georgia | 0 | 16 | 49 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 67.5 |
NCAA Men’s Championships – Day 2
| Teams | 200 medley | 400 IM | 100 Fly | 200 Free | 100 breast | 100 back | 3m Diving | 800 fr relay |
| Southern Cali | 129 | 129 | 151 | 185.5 | 185.5 | 220.5 | 220.5 | 254.5 |
| Texas | 174 | 178.5 | 234.5 | 236 | 236 | 245 | 265 | 289 |
| Florida | 113 | 155.5 | 171.5 | 195 | 196.5 | 202.5 | 202.5 | 234.5 |
| Michigan | 140 | 153 | 153 | 165 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 230 |
| NC State | 135 | 138 | 138 | 154.5 | 154.5 | 154.5 | 154.5 | 184.5 |
| California | 121 | 140 | 153 | 156.5 | 169.5 | 187.5 | 187.5 | 199.5 |
| Georgia | 89.5 | 130.5 | 130.5 | 144.5 | 164.5 | 164.5 | 164.5 | 178.5 |
NCAA Men’s Championships – Day 3
| Teams | 1650 free | 200 back | 100 free | 200 breast | 200 fly | Platform | 400 fr relay |
| Southern Cali | 257.5 | 257.5 | 290 | 306 | 308 | 310 | 342 |
| Texas | 290 | 290 | 303 | 320 | 372 | 386 | 406 |
| Florida | 265.5 | 265.5 | 282.5 | 287.5 | 291.5 | 291.5 | 317.5 |
| Michigan | 241 | 243 | 254 | 258 | 280 | 280 | 310 |
| NC State | 196.5 | 213.5 | 238.5 | 238.5 | 250.5 | 250.5 | 290.5 |
| California | 199.5 | 229.5 | 231.5 | 247.5 | 247.5 | 247.5 | 261.5 |
| Georgia | 195.5 | 195.5 | 195.5 | 215.5 | 240.5 | 240.5 | 260.5 |
Here are my final top 10 predictions. Note that I did not score NC State and Alabama using my normal methods, so I’ve simply guessed where I think they’ll end up.
For reference, I’ve been scoring this meet using my own methodology for the past decade, with pretty good predictive results, posting them on that other website. And while I’m confident in my Horns, seeing them up this big also makes me damn nervous.
The big story is Texas big, then a three team dogfight for 2nd between USC, Cal and Florida. Note that I actually have Cal and Florida exactly tied, but I’m giving the tiebreaker nod to Cal because I think they have more upside. The… Read more »
Just received the latest copy of Swimming World. Their prediction for the top 10 NCAA men’s teams excludes USC! The same USC team that just beat Cal and Stanford at their conference championships. Go figure.
Yeah. Texas sucks at swimming. Diving is the only thing helping their underperforming swimmers…
Just have to start calling them the “Texas DIVING and Swimming Team”
Nice one dude! That is totally original! You really showed the world!
I’d be lying if I said I haven’t been fantasizing about a scenario in which Cal pulls out a win. It’s my hobby. Go Bears! Right now, it seems like they will have their hands full trying to get a 2nd place finish.
Didn’t go to Cal/major swim school so hopefully this is more objective, but Cal is really the school I’ve noticed that tends to bring their A game to NCAAs (and finals particularly on relays) and explode out of their seeds at least the years they win. This is vs. other teams like Michigan in ’13 and Texas this year if they win where they were the overwhelming favorite based on the psych sheet.
If memory serves, NC State was 3rd in last years psych sheet.
This is an interesting starting point. I wouldnt count out NC State just yet. I can see them top 5 here. USC has a lot of points to give back to the field… I think Cal takes a chunk of those. Georgia will also be better than seed.
Should be a fight… I see a Texas win with a 4 team scrap for 2nd, all within 20 points of each other.
If NC State beats Cal ill eat your shorts and mine Bart! hahaha no way!