2016 M. NCAA Picks: Dressel Toying with the 18-Second Barrier in 50 FR

2016 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• Wednesday, March 23- Saturday, March 26
• Georgia Institute of Technology- Atlanta, GA.
• Psych Sheet
• Live Results
• Live Webcast
• Championship Central

50 FREESTYLE

• NCAA record: 18.23 — Caeleb Dressel (Florida) — 2/17/2016
• American record: 18.23 — Caeleb Dressel (Florida) — 2/17/2016
• U.S. Open record: 18.23 — Caeleb Dressel (Florida) — 2/17/2016
• 2015 NCAA Champion: Caeleb Dressel (Florida) 18.67

After his outrageous performance at the SEC Championships, Florida sophomore Caeleb Dressel has gone from first high schooler under 19 seconds in the 50 to potentially the first man under 18 seconds altogether. Dressel was not shaved at SECs, and while 23 hundredths is a big time drop in a 50, especially for an athlete of Dressel’s caliber, it’s not completely out of the question.

Lofty expectations aside, it’s hard to foresee anybody seriously challenging Dressel in a flat out 50 free. Only Michigan sophomore Paul Powers (18.85) and NC State sprinters Ryan Held (18.92) and Simonas Bilis (18.94) have been under 19 so far this year. Held and Powers continue to improve into their sophomore seasons, while this is Bilis’ last rodeo.

Last year’s runner-up, Kristian Gkolomeev of Alabama, sits at #8 with a 19.21. He was 18.67 for the silver last year, and certainly is expected to have more in the tank come NCAAs. The SEC has another couple guys in the 19-low range, with #6 Peter Holoda of Auburn as well as Missouri junior Michael Chadwick. Ever since Chadwick broke 49 in a long course 100 free last summer, he’s had additional eyes on him as Rio grows closer and the U.S. sprinting situation begins to take shape. Aside from Holoda, who’s had a big year, Gkolomeev and Chadwick didn’t look to have shown all of their cards at SECs, so expect more from them.

A couple smaller names from out west are seeded highly- that would be #4 Dillon Virva of UNLV and #9 Payton Sorenson of BYU. Notably, the Pac-12 is going to be very poorly represented. The only invited swimmers in this event are #13 Sam Perry, #18 Justin Lynch, and #25 Renny Richmond. Perry is a sophomore at Stanford, Lynch a sophomore at Cal, and Richmond an Arizona junior. Hurting the Pac-12’s standing: last year’s 6th-place finisher Tyler Messerschmidt missed the NCAA invite list this season and won’t compete individually.

Not to be forgotten are Texas’ sprinters, with freshman Tate Jackson sitting at #10 followed by #11 John Murray and #17 Brett Ringgold.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS

Dark Horse: #12 Ali Khalafalla of Indiana had a huge 22.25 50m free at the Orlando Pro Swim Series to secure a FINA ‘A’ cut, qualifying him for the 2016 Rio Olympics. Khalafalla has improved since getting to the IU program, and swam a 19.27 at Big Tens to break the Indiana school record as well as finish 2nd overall behind only Powers of Michigan.