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2016 M. NCAA Picks: Murphy Ready to Test 100 Back American Record

2016 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

100 BACKSTROKE

  • NCAA record: 44.17 — Ryan Murphy (Cal) — 3/26/2015
  • American record: 44.07 — Nick Thoman (SwimMAC) — 12/6/2014
  • U.S. Open record: 44.07 — Nick Thoman (SwimMAC) — 12/6/2014
  • 2015 NCAA Champion: Ryan Murphy (Cal) 44.21

Ryan Murphy has been the heirof America’s backstroke future for several years now, and this year, expectations haven’t changed much for the Cal junior. He’s elite enough to be expected to not only win, but break records while he’s at it.

And why doubt him? He swam a lights-out 52.18 LCM 100 back at the 2015 World Championships leading off the USA mixed 4×100 free relay in prelims, just .24 off of Aaron Piersol‘s world record. While he faded in finals hard, Murphy has shown in NCAA competition that he doesn’t tank any second swims. Last year, he won this race by more than half a second over David Nolan, and was also incredibly fast in the 200 back and on Cal’s relays. This is Murphy’s race to lose, and Thoman’s 44.07 could get blown out of the water by the young backstroke phenom.

A trio of juniors follow behind Murphy, led by OSU’s Matt McHugh, who won the 100 back at Big Tens with a 45.07 after winning the 100 fly earlier in the same session. He’s also the #4 seed in the 100 fly at NCAAs, but judging off of his Big Ten performance, the fly won’t really slow him down in the back. The other two juniors are Alabama’s Connor Oslin and Louisville’s Grigory Tarasevich.

Jack Conger of Texas will, like McHugh, pull the 100 fly-100 back double. Last year, he did the same thing and finished 7th in the back and 2nd in the fly. While he’s seeded all the way back at 33rd, he’s been as fast as 45.32 (albeit from 2012). Most recently, he was 45.50 at NCAAs last year.

USC’s Ralf Tribuntsov has broken 45 before, and the #5 seed is coming off of winning the 100 back at Pac-12s, USC’s first title in that event in almost twenty years. Also coming in hot is #6 seed Andrew Marsh, who broke up the Texas vice grip on Big 12 titles, winning the conference crown in the 100 back and setting a school record in the process. His 45.41 is tied with Florida’s Jack Blyzinskyj, and UGA’s Taylor Dale and Alabama’s Luke Kaliszak sit right behind them, tied at 45.42.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS

SWIMMER SCHOOL SEED BEST TIME
Ryan Murphy Cal 1st – 44.75 44.17
Ralf Tribuntsov USC 5th – 45.30 44.95
Connor Oslin Alabama 3rd – 45.25 45.08
Matt McHugh Ohio State 2nd – 45.07 45.07
Grigory Tarasevich Louisville 4th – 45.28 45.28
Jack Conger Texas 33rd– 46.71 45.32
Jack Blyzinskyj Florida 6th — 45.41 45.41
Andrew Marsh West Virginia 6th — 45.41 45.41

Dark Horse: #10 Chatham Dobbs has come out of nowhere in the backstroke this year. Prior to the Pac-12 Champs, where he finished 2nd overall in the 100 back with a 45.72 (45.58 in prelims), he had never broken 46. Prior to the mid-season Texas Invite, where he went two 46’s and one 47.0, he had never broken 48 seconds. He’s quickly developed into one of Arizona’s top sprinters, and is one to watch out for at NCAAs. 

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Nancy
8 years ago

Watch out for Chatham dobbs

completelyconquered
8 years ago

Tarasevich’s best time is 44.92

Wolfpack
8 years ago

I think that I would have to put my money would have be on NC State’s Hennesey Stuart. The guy is an animal and has monster underwater. Definitly a dark horse

PsychoDad
8 years ago

Puzzled with Conger’s pick of 100 back. Unless he dramatically improved his back dolphin last month…
I guess he did not want to swim 100 or 200 free because they are too close to 100/200 fly?
I hope this is the year Conger wins NCAAs! Our son and I will be in stands and cheering. Go Horns!

cbswims
Reply to  PsychoDad
8 years ago

Do you think Conger picked the 100 back all on his own?

I suspect the coaches do their multitude of regression analyses, coming up with the most likely what-if line-ups from other teams, while also somewhat negotiating with swimmers about what they feel best about swimming.

Long story short; coaches do the picks and then gently persuade the swimmers. Sometimes the swimmer wins out, but most often it is the coach. At least that is what it was like when I swam.

bobo gigi
8 years ago

How can Conger still swim backstroke?
I know it’s good for Texas and its team points but especially in that olympic year, I can’t understand all his focus is not on butterfly.
Backstroke is the past for Conger. Glory and future are on butterfly in individual and freestyle on relays.

JP358
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

I don’t think it’s going to break his butterfly to do a couple of 100 backs here. He might even *gasp* be a backstroker in a medley relay or two!

Joe
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

The 100 and 200 frees don’t work out well with the three day NCAA schedule and it might be worse for his sprint / mid-D free and fly for him to train for the 500 free instead of the 100 back.

spectatorn
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

his seed times says he has not put much focus on backstroke anyway… Even the great like KL or MP are doing off event at this time. as long as he keep NCAA as “fun” meet, he should be fine.

Counterpoint
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

Counterpoint A: 100 Fly is/can be 60% underwater dolphin kick and then uses 100% dolphin kick during the rest of the race. 100 Back also uses 60% underwater dolphin kick, then 40% flutter kick, (Granted 50 and 100 free use the same percentage and I dont think its AS realistic in the 200 free.) but it seems those races have a lot in common.

Counterpoint B: 3 Individual events + 4 relays vs 2 individual events + 5 relays. If he swims 4 relays (the 400’s and 800FR and 200MR) that allows him the chance to try for the triple sweep or septo sweep (sp? even a word? or octo sweep counting team title) whatever. I think Texas is… Read more »

floppy
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

I expected Conger to be doing mostly freestyle by now – with an occasional 100 stroke. He can’t figure out what to focus on.

8 years ago

I’ve been told murphy will not be tapering for this meet but will train thru it. my money is still on him to win both back races.

ccac
8 years ago

Taylor Dale is going to be a darkhorse here. He was coached by THE Charles Todd. His feet are very flexible, all around, he is a gift from heaven to descend down upon Dalton

JP358
8 years ago

I wanna see a 43!

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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