WOMEN’S 100 BACKSTROKE
- 2012 Olympic Champ: Missy Franklin (USA), 58.33
- 2015 Worlds Champ: Emily Seebohm (AUS), 58.26
- World Record: 58.12 | Gemma Spofforth (GBR) | 7/28/09
In the summer of 2012, Australian backstroker Emily Seebohm was left in tears and disbelief as she was handed a defeat in the 100 back in London to America’s media darling Missy Franklin. Despite swimming faster than Franklin in semifinals, the 17-year-old from Colorado with the big smile charged ahead with an incredible final push towards the wall to leave Seebohm dumbfounded and without the gold medal in the final one night later.
2016 will be Seebohm’s time for redemption.
Emily Seebohm of Australia (Photo by Steve Christo)
In a way, the Australian 24-year-old already got a taste of revenge over the last two summers. At the 2014 Pan Pac Champs, Seebohm earned a win over an injured Franklin in the 100 back. She bested Franklin again at the 2015 World Championships. There, she blasted a 58.26 in the final to claim gold and scare the suit-aided world record. Two lanes down, Franklin was looking up at her time of 59.40, over a second behind Seebohm and well out of medal contention in 5th.
Seebohm won’t even race Franklin in this event in Rio– Missy failed to qualify for Rio in the 100 back, paving Seebohm’s clear path to gold in August.
Seebohm has posted so many 58’s since last September that it seems as though she’s never off her game. Her consistency is impressive, and suggests that she can drop a 58-low (at the least) in Rio.
Mie Nielsen of Denmark and Katinka Hosszu are two names that immediately come to mind behind Seebohm. Nielson and Hosszu recently went head-to-head at the 2016 European Championships, where Nielsen was 58.73 to eke out the win and notch a new Danish record.
Mie Nielsen of Denmark (Photo by Peter Sukenik)
Hosszu was 58.94 at Euros, a shade slower than her 58.78 from prelims in Kazan (she scratched from semis for the 200 IM final) that broke the Hungarian record. Nielsen, in Kazan, earned bronze in this event.
The other medalist in this event in Kazan, earning silver, was Australian Madison Wilson. She swam a 58.75 to edge ahead of Nielsen’s 58.86 last summer. Nielsen, Hosszu, and Wilson are all capable of putting up 58.6-58.8 range swims, though the Iron Lady has a scheduling conflict. In Rio, she could have 200 free and 200 IM semifinals before and after the 100 back final. Hosszu, who is known to load up with monster schedules, could certainly swim all three races, but the 200 IM is her best event and that takes priority over the other two. We’ll assume she swims the 100 back, though, since she has an infinitely better shot at a medal in that than in the 200 free.
Though Franklin won’t be back to defend her Olympic gold in this event, the NCAA has helped produce two 59-lows from UGA’s Olivia Smoliga and Cal’s Kathleen Baker to spur on the Americans this summer.
USA’s Olivia Smoliga (Photo by Tim Binning)
Baker was 8th in the final in Kazan with a 59-high, but improved through each round at the U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha to end up 2nd with a new best of 59.29. After a best time in early June, Smoliga dropped a quick 59.02 to win the event in Omaha. It’s probably going to take a 58.8 (or faster) to medal, but a big drop from either American could shoot them into medal contention.
Another name on the brink of venturing into 58-second territory is Canada’s Kylie Masse. With a 59.06 to win the 100 back at the Canadian Trials, she broke the national record and, like the American girls, could put her name in for Olympic medal contention with another big swim in Rio.
China’s Haihua Chen won this event at the Chinese National Championships back in early April, posting a 59.55 to punch her ticket to Rio. She’ll battle with GBR’s Georgia Davies, among others, for one of the last spots in this final. Haihua’s Chinese teammate Fu Yuanhui may or may not be in the hunt as well – she won the 50 back at Worlds last summer and went 59.0 in the 100 back final. But she hasn’t been under a minute yet this year, and it’s not clear if she’s even on the Chinese Olympic roster. If she is – and she’s in good form – she’ll be a finals threat. But those may be two big ifs.
TOP 8 PREDICTIONS
| Place | Swimmer | Country | Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) | Predicted Time in Rio |
| 1 | Emily Seebohm | Australia | 58.26 | 57.9 WR |
| 2 | Mie Nielsen | Denmark | 58.73 | 58.6 |
| 3 | Katinka Hosszu | Hungary | 58.78 | 58.6 |
| 4 | Madison Wilson | Australia | 58.75 | 58.8 |
| 5 | Olivia Smoliga | USA | 59.02 | 59.1 |
| 6 | Kylie Masse | Canada | 59.06 | 59.1 |
| 7 | Kathleen Baker | USA | 59.29 | 59.3 |
| 8 | Haihua Chen | China | 59.55 | 59.6 |
Crazy to look back at this preview given tonight’s events — Hosszu first and Baker with the silver! Baker’s superb swims much a very pleasant surprise 🙂 go USA!
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/sports/olympics/kathleen-baker-crohns-disease-swimming-olympics.html
Well now we know why Kathleen Baker didn’t swim the 200 back at Trials. Given this news I’m amazed she made the team and it tells me that with the 100 back, if she can stay healthy and in remission through Rio, she just might get under 59 and be a medal threat. Big if, but her mental fortitude must be enormous to be able to make the team with Crohn’s disease!!
I have had the pleasure of watching Kylie Masse swim numerous times and I can garentee she will be under 59.
I think this might be the event which is the easiest to predict. Hosszu, Seebohm and Nielsen will win the medals. The 2 american girls, Masse, Wilson and one out of Chen, Davies, Dawson or Ustinova will make the final.
Britain aren’t sending Dawson
Masse is Canadian
Katinka has marketed herself very well and very aggressively as the #IronLady. It had made her (probably) a millionaire. Her brand is arguably more valuable than any single Olympic medal, even gold.
I would be very surprised if she abandoned the strategy she has pushed 120% for 4 years (both in terms of meet prep and branding) by scratching races just because she isn’t the favorite.
Hosszu might also want to become the most successful Hungarian swimmer in a single Olympics, and that means she will have to at least equal Egerszegi’s 3 golds in 1992 Olympics.
Egerszegi was the greatest back stroker ever. Clean too. No way Hosszu surpasses her legacy no matter how many medals she wins.
Go watch Egerszegi’s 1996 200 back. Most dominant victory of the last several decades. It looked like she was giving a high school clinic.
While this is a crazy competitive event, I think the U.S. has two very strong contenders. I feel more confident with these two than I would have with Coughlin and Franklin, even if Coughlin and Franklin had put up the same times at Trials. Smoliga and Baker are on good trajectories, dropping steady time recently and are under the radar with little pressure. Go USA!
1. Nielsen
2. Seebohm
3. Wilson
I’ve been calling the upset since last summer and I’m going to stick with it. Masse the potential spoiler.
Nielsen
Seebohm
Wilson
Dont forget about the Russians!!Fesikova(Zueva)!she was twice 4th in both Olimpics before in this event!and 6th in Kazan after born a child in 2014!i think she will be competitive in Rio again!