With the 2016 Olympic Games looming, below find the women’s 6 months-out-formchart for the 2016 U.S. Olympic Trials. This is a high-level look at the current favorites for spots on the U.S. Olympic Team to guide your viewing of the rest of the NCAA season as well as the remainder of the Pro Swim Series. As the Trials near we will fine-tune (and expand upon) this form-chart into our formal SwimSwam predictions. If you want to see the men’s formchart from earlier click here.
50m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time (2nd Place): 24.73
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Simone Manuel 24.47 1 8 No
2.Natalie Coughlin 24.66 2 14 ’04,’08,’12
3.Madison Kennedy 24.71 3 15 No
4.Abbey Weitzeil 24.86 5 24 No
5.Kelsi Worrell 25.01 6 32 No
6.Amanada Weir 24.85 4 23 ’04,’12
Darkhorse: Faith Johnson 25.18 14 51 No
Simone Manuel is poised to make her first Olympic team this summer in Omaha, as she has proven herself as America’s top freestyle sprinter. The battle for 2nd place will be very tight. Natalie Coughlin won bronze in this event at Pan Ams, and has a very good shot. Madison Kennedy took home the National title in August, Abbey Weitzeil lost to Manuel by just 0.03 at Winter Nats and Amanda Weir also went under 25 seconds at Nationals finishing 2nd. Kelsi Worrell’s primary focus will be the butterfly events, but with the 50 free prelims not until the 2nd to last day of competition there’s no reason why she couldn’t swim it. In her young career she has already developed a reputation for delivering under pressure. There are many, many women capable of making the top-8 in this event, but one to watch for is Faith Johnson of Tennessee, who tied for 4th at Nationals and has been very fast so far in the NCAA season.
100m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time (Ind.): 54.15 Relay: 54.44
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Simone Manuel 53.81 2 10 No
2.Missy Franklin 53.68 1 9 ’12
3.Margo Geer 53.95 4 22 No
4.Abbey Weitzeil 54.11 6 30 No
5.Natalie Coughlin 53.85 3 16 ’04,’08,’12
6.Lia Neal 54.01 5 27 ’12
Darkhorse: Dana Vollmer 54.95 15 74 ’04,’12
In what will be a very hotly contested event at Trials, Simone Manuel and Missy Franklin are the clear top-2 as of now. The battle for a top-6 spot will be fierce, with many capable of qualifying. Margo Geer, Abbey Weitzeil and Lia Neal all swam well on relays at Worlds, and Natalie Coughlin won silver at Pan Ams . On her comeback trail in search of defending her 100 fly Olympic title, Dana Vollmer went sub-55 at Winter Nats in this event and certainly has the ability to push for a relay spot. She didn’t focus on it in 2015, but we could see a resurgence in sprint freestyle from Jessica Hardy as well.
200m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time (Ind.): 1:56.79 Relay: 1:58.40
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Katie Ledecky 1:55.16 1 4 ’12
2.Missy Franklin 1:55.49 2 6 ’12
3.Allison Schmitt 1:56.23 3 10 ’08,’12
4.Leah Smith 1:57.52 4 26 No
5.Melanie Margalis 1:57.91 6 35 No
6.Elizabeth Pelton 1:58.30 8 46 No
Darkhorse: Simone Manuel 1:58.54 12 57 No
The women’s 200 free will have three elite women vying for 2 spots, with 2015 World Champion Katie Ledecky, 2013 World Champion Missy Franklin and 2012 Olympic Champion Allison Schmitt set to do battle. After those three, Leah Smith and Melanie Margalis look good to make the team in the relay after going sub-1:58 in 2015. Both Katie McLaughlin and Hali Flickinger will both be considered for the relay as well after posting the 5th and 7th fastest American times in 2015. However, they will both be contesting the 200 fly which have semi-finals taking place shortly after the 200 free final, so it is unlikely we’ll see them in the final. Keep an eye out for sprint specialist Simone Manuel, who could make a push in this event. She has proven herself in yards, and was a very respectable 1:58.5 at Winter Nats.
400m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time: 4:04.18
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Katie Ledecky 3:59.13 1 1 ’12
2.Allison Schmitt 4:06.88 3 19 ’08,’12
3.Leah Smith 4:04.66 2 6 No
4.Hali Flickinger 4:07.93 7 33 No
5.Lindsay Vrooman 4:07.16 4 23 No
6.Sierra Schmidt 4:07.47 5 28 No
Darkhorse: Courtney Harnish 4:08.22 9 39 No
2-time World Champion Katie Ledecky will look for her first Olympic title in the 400. 2012 Olympic runner-up Allison Schmitt is a good bet for 2nd after a very fast 4:06.8 in-season swim at Winter Nats. Leah Smith will give her a run after going 4:04 at World University Games, and Hali Flickinger will be a major player after an scintillating 3:58.2 (SCM) at the Duel in the Pool. Lindsay Vrooman and Sierra Schmidt will also be in the fight, as will youngster Courtney Harnish after a surprising 3rd place finish at Summer Nationals.
800m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time: 8:21.87
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Katie Ledecky 8:07.39 1 1 ’12
2.Becca Mann 8:21.77 2 6 No
3.Leah Smith 8:24.74 3 10 No
4.Lindsay Vrooman 8:26.67 4 11 No
5.Haley Anderson 8:29.32 7 20 ’12
6.Stephanie Peacock 8:28.25 6 14 No
Darkhorse: Cierra Runge 8:31.55 9 34 No
Katie Ledecky will begin her pursuit of defending her 800m Olympic title in Omaha, where she shouldn’t have any trouble winning. Even if first place is all but decided, the battle for second should be a good one. Becca Mann posted a best time of 8:21.77 recently at the Minneapolis Pro Series, and got her first taste of World Championship action this past summer. Leah Smith had an excellent 2015 and though her primary focus has been the 200/400 lately, she certainly has a shot in the 800 based off her casual 8:24.7 at the VA Last Chance Meet in June. Lindsay Vrooman is coming off the national title in this event, Haley Anderson recently won Winter Nationals and Stephanie Peacock was runner-up to Vrooman at Nationals. Look out for Cierra Runge, who looked good at Winter Nationals after a dynamite 2014.
100m Backstroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 59.49
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Missy Franklin 59.40 2 8 ’12
2.Natalie Coughlin 59.05 1 6 ’04,’08,’12
3.Claire Adams 59.58 3 10 No
4.Kathleen Baker 59.63 4 12 No
5.Ali Deloof 1:00.10 7 24 No
6.Olivia Smoliga 1:00.06 6 22 No
Darkhorse: Courtney Bartholomew 1:02.13 44 169 No
Missy will be back in top form and will be the favorite for this event. Natalie Coughlin announced she was back on the 100 back scene when she dropped a 59.05 medley relay lead-off at Pan Ams. She’ll be very dangerous. Claire Adams will push both Franklin and Coughlin after winning Nationals in August, Kathleen Baker was 59.6 at Worlds and Ali Deloof has consistently improved finishing 3rd at Summer Nats and 2nd at Winter Nats. Someone to keep an eye out for is Courtney Bartholomew. She recently had an outstanding Duel in the Pool where she broke Natalie Coughlin‘s SCM American record. Yes, short course and long course are very different but she is someone everyone will have to keep an eye out for. This is an event that has a lot of contenders for a top-8 position, as I haven’t even mentioned the likes of Hannah Stevens, Rachel Bootsma, Clara Smiddy, etc… There’s a lot of young backstroke talent (as there always seems to be in the U.S.) that could/should wind up in finals, but those will shake out as more data points arise.
200m Backstroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 2:07.58
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Missy Franklin 2:06.34 1 3 ’12
2.Maya Dirado 2:08.28 2 9 No
3.Claire Adams 2:09.44 4 18 No
4.Elizabeth Beisel 2:09.54 5 21 ’08,’12
5.Lisa Bratton 2:09.31 3 15 No
6.Elizabeth Pelton 2:10.54 7 37 No
Darkhorse: Danielle Galyer 2:09.75 6 25 No
After Maya Dirado pushed Missy Franklin to the finish in the final at Winter Nationals, she would have to be considered the favorite for the 2nd spot behind the defending Olympic champion. Claire Adams won the National title, Lisa Bratton won the World University Games title, and Elizabeth Beisel will look to make her third straight Olympic team while Elizabeth Pelton is still looking for her first. Danielle Galyer from the University of Kentucky finished 2nd to Adams at Nationals and could surprise a lot of people.
100m Breaststroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 1:05.99
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Katie Meili 1:05.64 1 3 No
2.Jessica Hardy 1:06.68 4 9 ’12
3.Lilly King 1:06.43 2 6 No
4.Breeja Larson 1:07.19 5 21 ’12
5.Molly Hannis 1:06.60 3 8 No
6.Laura Sogar 1:07.41 7 27 No
Darkhorse: Andrea Cottrell 1:07.63 9 35 No
After a breakout summer that saw her win both Pan Am and US National gold, Katie Meili would have to be considered the favorite heading into 2016. Jessica Hardy faltered a bit at Worlds, but still gets the nod in 2nd given her experience. Lilly King finished 2nd at both Summer and Winter Nationals, Molly Hannis went the 8th fastest time in the world on the World Cup circuit, and Breeja Larson will look to rectify a poor 2015 with a second consecutive Olympic berth. The University of Louisville’s Andrea Cottrell‘s stock is on the rise, after a impressive 4th place finish at Summer Nationals.
200m Breaststroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 2:23.03
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Micah Lawrence 2:22.04 1 5 ’12
2.Laura Sogar 2:23.54 2 15 No
3.Lilly King 2:24.47 3 19 No
4.Molly Hannis 2:25.26 4 25 No
5.Miranda Tucker 2:26.08 5 32 No
6.Breeja Larson 2:26.32 6 34 ’12
Darkhorse: Melanie Margalis 2:27.24 11 57 No
Micah Lawrence is clearly the top pick after winning silver at the World Championships, and Laura Sogar is a clear 2nd pick after her big win at Nationals. Lilly King recently had a big win at Winter Nationals, Molly Hannis was 2nd at Summer Nationals to Sogar, and Miranda Tucker posted her best time of the year recently at Winter Nats. Someone to be aware of in this event is Melanie Margalis, who had a big surprise win over Russia’s Yuliya Efimova at the Duel in the Pool.
100m Butterfly 2012 Qualifying Time: 57.57
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Kelsi Worrell 57.24 1 3 No
2.Dana Vollmer 57.95 3 16 ’04,’12
3.Katie McLaughlin 57.87 2 15 No
4.Kendyl Stewart 58.05 4 19 No
5.Claire Donahue 58.08 5 21 ’12
6.Felicia Lee 58.54 6 38 No
Darkhorse: Cassidy Bayer 58.87 9 50 No
After her breakout summer and continued success right through 2015, I’m giving the nod to Kelsi Worrell in the 100 fly over Dana Vollmer. This will be a very exciting race to watch. 200 fly specialist Katie McLaughlin will be dangerous coming home on that second 50. Kendyl Stewart had a somewhat disappointing World Championships but did pop a 56.8 relay leg, Claire Donahue also had a disappointing Worlds and will look to bounce back, and Felicia Lee had an impressive 2nd place finish to Worrell at Summer Nationals. Cassidy Bayer is a young swimmer on the rise, claiming a bronze and two fourth place finishes at Junior Worlds.
200m Butterfly 2012 Qualifying Time: 2:07.72
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Cammile Adams 2:06.33 1 5 ’12
2.Katie McLaughlin 2:06.95 2 9 No
3.Hali Flickinger 2:07.59 3 12 No
4.Cassidy Bayer 2:08.03 4 18 No
5.Kate Mills 2:08.89 6 29 No
6.Christina Bechtel 2:09.20 7 33 No
Darkhorse: Kelsi Worrell 2:08.61 5 22 No
Cammile Adams and Katie McLaughlin are the easy 1-2 picks after finishing 2nd and 6th respectively at the World Championships. Hali Flickinger, Cassidy Bayer and Christina Bechtel went 1-2-3 at Nationals, and Kate Mills won silver at Pan Ams. Despite potential to make the team in this event, Kelsi Worrell is a darkhorse. She did scratch this final at Nationals, and simply may decide she has a better chance qualifying in the 400 free relay than the 200 fly (which would create a scheduling conflict).
200m Individual Medley 2012 Qualifying Time: 2:11.30
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Maya Dirado 2:08.99 1 4 No
2.Melanie Margalis 2:10.26 2 7 No
3.Caitlin Leverenz 2:10.35 3 8 ’12
4.Madisyn Cox 2:10.75 4 9 No
5.Meghan Small 2:11.26 5 14 No
6.Bethany Galat 2:12.13 7 21 No
Darkhorse: Kathleen Baker 2:12.09 6 20 No
Maya Dirado‘s very impressive World Championship performance makes her the clear favorite in both IM races heading into 2016. Melanie Margalis and Caitlin Leverenz look like they’ll have a good race for 2nd place, with Madisyn Cox not far behind. Leverenz won both US Nationals and Pan Ams, just ahead of Cox (Nationals) and Meghan Small (Pan Ams). Bethany Galat was a respectable 3rd at Nationals, and Kathleen Baker is someone who could surprise in this event. Known more for her backstroke, Baker has a deadly front half and used it to finish 3rd recently at Winter Nationals.
400m Individual Medley 2012 Qualifying Time: 4:34.48
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Maya Dirado 4:31.71 1 2 No
2.Caitlin Leverenz 4:35.46 2 6 ’12
3.Elizabeth Beisel 4:36.71 3 11 ’08,’12
4.Becca Mann 4:37.04 4 12 No
5.Sarah Henry 4:38.88 5 22 No
6.Madisyn Cox 4:41.75 6 38 No
Darkhorse: Brooke Forde 4:43.20 15 54 No
Maya Dirado had an amazing swim at Worlds, challenging Hungarian star Katinka Hosszu all the way to the wall, finishing 2nd. She is again the clear favorite, after a massive 4:31.7. Caitlin Leverenz pulled off the win at both Pan Ams and Nationals, and will battle 2012 Olympic silver medallist Elizabeth Beisel for the 2nd spot. Open water and distance freestyle ace Becca Mann was a very impressive 4:37.0 at the Minneapolis Pro Series, Sarah Henry won gold at the World University Games, and Madisyn Cox picked up a bronze behind Leverenz and Henry at Nationals. If there’s a young swimmer on the rise in this event, it’s Brooke Forde. She swam 4:43.20 to finish 4th at Junior Worlds which finished off a year where she dropped 12 seconds in the long course 400 IM.
Marta Ciesla dark horse for the 50 free. No doubt about it. 25.07!
Tough event timing for Katie McLaughlin: choose best chance at an individual spot or decent chance at a spot on the 4×200 relay? Given the strength of the US team, there’s a good chance of a gold medal in the relay, which might be Katie’s best shot at any kind of medal. Do you think she showed enough at 2015 Worlds to be selected for the relay if she doesn’t race the event at trials but makes the team in another event? Do you think she has a better shot of making the team through the relay or through a fly event? To my amateur eyes, it seems like she has a good shot in both but not a lock… Read more »
didnt ledecky post a 4:38-ish 400 IM for “fun”? wouldn’t she be a possible threat in that event as well? but i have not reviewed the event schedule for rio, so this may be a moot statement.
SWIM COACH – I wouldn’t bet against her if she swam the race at Trials, HOWEVER, if I had to guess, I’d say she’d take one big crack at dominating 200-800 (and maybe even 100??) and then venture into other races in Hungary at Worlds next year.
Plus the 4IM would conflict with the 4×100 free relay and that is a higher priority I would imagine!
I predict Ledecky will at least try the 400 IM on the first day of trials. Remember, Janet Evans surprised people by doing that as well.
I believe the women’s 200 free and 200 IM are on the same day – that makes a tough decision for Melanie Margalis, as well as Madison Cox, Meghan Small, and a handful of others.
Ledecky should be the 400IM dark horse.
I think it would make sense for Franklin to swim the 100 back and not the 200 free individual event. In 2012 she got away with attempting the double when Seebohm wasted her best efforts early–but then she missed the medals the next day in the 200 free.
Missy has a tought double and a tough decision, can´t see her being a gold favorite in each event on OG, but she has a sure gold on 4×200 relay and there is a minor medal chance (Which can be boosted by Vollmer return) on the medley relay, so swimming the 100 back for the relay is needed and the 100 free for relay need only: Shot for bronze
The 200 back is a sure individual event, and only Seebohm, Hosszu are match for her now, unless Daria, Wilson or someone else drops 2 3 seconds the 200 back is a safe medal and probably her only individual gold medal chance.
The question for her is between the 100… Read more »
Megan Romano……is she competing?
Ledecky, of course, is incredible, an absolute beast. However, I agree with Bobo– wouldnt be a great sign to have her on the 4×100 free relay. Perhaps she swims prelims to get a medal, but the US desperately needs pure sprinters to challenge Netherlands for silver and even to secure bronze. Good to see Lia Neal looking strong. re: this formchart, we know it’s early. Olympic trials is ALWAYS full of surprises. Breeja Larson was on ZERO form charts before 2012 trials 🙂 !
Does anyone know what’s happening with Megan Romano? The US needs a relay beast like her to drop a 52. Also, remember Arianna Kukors decided to make a comeback. Any word on her? Would like… Read more »
Kukors had an injury and aborted her comeback. Too bad…
There’s a few names I still think you may have left out…
Eva Merrell as a dark horse in the 50free for sure. She has been consistently dropping time for a while now, and nothing against Miss Bayer, but Merrell has definitely been more consistent than Bayer and has been consistently improving.
Ella Eastin! This is a big name I definitely think is missing. She is a force to be reckoned with. After a strong Winter Nationals I definitely think she is back in the contention for the IMs.
Amy Bilquist—I definitely think she has a good shot in the sprint frees and maybe even in the 100back. Just a thought though.
Another for the 200fly, while I don’t necessarily… Read more »
Whoops I meant Merrell for the 100fly not the 50free. But she definitely has a lot of potential in the 50 as well!