2017-2018 Men’s NCAA Power Rankings: Final Edition

As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order.  SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential.  These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion.  If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in a respectful way in our comments section.

As it’s been most of the season, the top spot in our Power Rankings is coming down to a brutally close fight between Cal and Texas.

We ultimately rolled with Texas, in part because of the return of John Shebat and in part because of a big diving boost coming out of Zones.

See also:

• First edition: Preseason
• Second edition: Pre Winter Invites
• Third edition: Post Winter Invites
• Fourth edition: Pre Conference Champs

We’re introducing a new format for our Power Rankings this season: a committee system where we average out the top 20 ballots of multiple SwimSwam writers to come up with our official ranking order. While this should help readers glean which teams are consensus picks at their rank and where in the order things get fuzzy and more subjective, bear in mind that these rankings are not an opportunity to personally attack any specific writer.

With that said, onto our final rankings for the 2017-2018 season:

(Also receiving votes: Florida State, Arizona)

#20: MISSOURI TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #19)

800 free relay looks great. But Mizzou is going to need some individual scorers to make the top 20. Mikel Schreuders and Jacob Wielinski are the best bets. -JA

#19: Ohio State Buckeyes (Previous Rank: N/A)

They’ve got the nation’s 7th-ranked 400 free relay and freshman Paul DeLakis is having a monster rookie year. -JA

The Buckeyes looked great at Big 10s, their relays came up to speed, and managed to get 6 swimmers to the NCAAs. Paul Delakis came up huge for them at the conference meet, and Jack Barone and Noah Lense looked great as well. They also have a valuable relay swimmer in Andrew Loy, who could also score in the 200 free. -SP

#18: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (PREVIOUS RANK: #10)

The Sun Devils got 7 swimmers to the NCAAs, but the only ones that are really in scoring position are Cameron Craig, Christian Lorenz, and Zach Poti. It doesn’t look like they’ll score a huge amount of relay points, which will make it hard for them to get very far into the top 20. -SP

#17: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS  (PREVIOUS RANK: #17)

The Boilmakers finished 13th last year, and return all of their point scorers, including their four divers who earned a combined 94.5 points last year. -RG

Marat Amaltdinov might not score anything. But Purdue still has a handful of divers that should add about 100 points. -JA

Pretty much the same formula as last year, lots of diving points plus maybe some breaststroke points out of Amaltdinov, which should lead to pretty much the same result. -SP

#16: Minnesota Golden Gophers (Previous Rank: N/A)

Conner McHugh and Bowe Becker are proving to be two of the nation’s best in their disciplines. Who can the Gophers get to fill in alongside them, and what will the diving total look like? -JA

Bowen Becker and Conner McHugh are a lethal duo. The Gophers should have no problem finishing well within the top 20. -SP

#15: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS(PREVIOUS RANK: #15)

They return all of their individual point scorers from last year’s 15th place finish, and add Brandonn Almeida into the mix. -RG

If they had more speed in relay events, there’s no doubt in my mind they would be a top 10 team. Brandonn Almeida will hopefully show up big for South Carolina, and they still may make it close to the top 10 based off individual performances. -SP

Keep an eye on Brandonn Almeida, who should only be getting better in the short pool as he learns. -JA

#14: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #13)

Individual scorers are a bit few and far between right now, but diver Colin Zeng will add a big haul to solid Vol relays. -JA

Relays and diving will be there for Tennessee. The name of the game will be individual races for them, that’s what will determine how close to the top 10 they get. -SP

#13: TEXAS A&M AGGIES (PREVIOUS RANK: #11)

SECs were great for the Aggies, and I see no reason they won’t make their way well into the top 20 at the NCAAs. -SP

After a great SEC showing, the Aggies seem primed to make their breakout at the NCAA level official. -JA

#12: GEORGIA BULLDOGS (PREVIOUS RANK: #12)

Georgia looks in dire straits right now, but I’m expecting a lot bigger showings out of Jay Litherland and Gunnar Bentz than we’ve seen so far. -JA

The Bulldogs are currently projected to finish 20th, so even with their well-deserved reptuation for coming up big when it counts, ranking them this high feels a bit generous. -RG

If I’m being completely honest, I put Georgia 12th based on the assumption that Gunnar Bentz and Jay Litherland will be significantly faster than they were at SECs, and that there will be improvement across the rest of the roster. Without both of those things happening, the Bulldogs are in trouble. -SP

#11 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (PREVIOUS RANK: #16)

Freshman Nicholas Albiero has really come into his own, and Louisville could be rolling in the relay points. -JA

They had some breakout performances at the ACC championships, highlighted by Evgenii Somov sweeping the breaststroke events. If they can repeat those perfromances, the Cardinals could even break into the top ten. -RG

Relay points will come in for the Cardinals, and if Nicholas Albiero is in peak form, they’ll be in really good shape. -SP

#10: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (PREVIOUS RANK: #9)

This is one of the harder teams to peg; they only have six individual qualifiers, and they finished 8th at SECs, but they’ve got some very strong free relays. -RG

May be a bit of a leap to keep them in the top 10, but the relay points should roll in for the Crimson Tide. If the individual points are there, they shouldn’t have a problem being a top 10 team. -SP

#9: AUBURN TIGERS  (PREVIOUS RANK: #14)

Might as well call him Huge Gonzalez, because Hugo came up huge at SECs. -JA

Two words: Hugo Gonzalez. He had huge performances at the SECs, and is in the hunt for the title in all 3 of his individual events. Zach Apple will also provide a lot of points, and they could get some points out of a couple other swimmers too. If the Auburn relays can come down some, they will crack the top 10 for sure. -SP

#8: STANFORD CARDINAL (PREVIOUS RANK: #5)

Stanford seemed to underperform at the Pac-12s, but I’m not sure how much stock should be put in that. They have a great freestyle squad, and the 2nd biggest swimming roster, but they’ll need to swim faster than they did at Pac-12s to score significant points. -SP

It looked like no one was taking Pac 12s all that seriously, making it difficult to judge where some of these teams are at, including Stanford. While their distance group should deliver, they’ll need another lights out performance by Sam Perry to carry the shorter relays. -RG

They’ve got the second-biggest swimming roster of any team at NCAAs, but a lot of those swimmers are seeded outside of scoring range. -JA

#7: USC TROJANS (PREVIOUS RANK: #8)

Great medley relays, diving looks good too. They only have 6 swimmers, but they should all score, leaving the Trojans in a pretty good place overall. -SP

Not a ton of depth, but those medley relays could be absolutely outstanding. Divers came up big at Zones, too. -JA

#6: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (PREVIOUS RANK: #7)

This seems a bit low given their current projections, but they’ve underperformed, relative to their projections, each of the past two NCAAs. -RG

They’re a young team and they’ve continued to exceed my expectations all season. Their free relays look really good, and they should score big points in all the free events and IMs. -SP

#5:  INDIANA HOOSIERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #6)

With the rise of two good backstrokers, IU is suddenly one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, with potential scorers in almost every event. Diving is going to come up huge, and it’s not out of the question this team could finish as high as 3rd. -JA

It’s appeared that the Hoosiers have chosen to focus on Big 10s the past few years, and have slipped a few spots from their projected NCAA finish. They could move up a spot or two if they’ve gone “all in” for NCAAs this year. -RG

5th honestly seems conservative for the Hoosiers, but with their recent track record at the NCAAs, I’m fine leaving them here knowing they could explode into the top 3. Their 400 medley is really fast, and I expect their 200 medley relay to be faster than 1:23 at the NCAAs. They should also be in the A final in all 3 free relays, and diving is pretty much a given for big points, so if the individual performances are there, Indiana will be in great shape. -SP

#4: FLORIDA GATORS (PREVIOUS RANK: #4)

Caeleb Dressel is reaching a level where he could carry a relay win all by himself. Do the Gators use him on breaststroke on the medleys? -JA

Sophomore Khader Baqlah had a SEC meet that got overshadowed by the reocrd-breaking exploits of a certain swimmer. Add in fellow sophomore Maxime Rooney and veterans Mark Szaranek and Jan Switkowski, and you’ve got an incrediby solid core. The performance of the second-tier swimmers will probably determine whether or not that Gators can bite down on 3rd place. -RG

If Caeleb Dressel could swim more than 3 individual events, Florida would easily crack the top 3. At this point, we can count on Dressel for 60 individual points just like last last year. That’s significant, and I think we’ll see their relays shed a decent amount of time, so if they can get into a bunch of individual finals they could definitely crack the top 3. -SP

#3: NC STATE WOLFPACK (PREVIOUS RANK: #3)

NC State always looks lights-out at ACCs, so it’s no surprise they’re leading the psych sheet scores at this stage. -JA

Fear the beard. Several of NC State top swimmers were still hirsute at ACCs, but they still demolished the American Record in the 400 free relay on the meet’s final day. They Wolfpack may be the deepest team in the field after Cal. -RG

NC State looks really good right now. Ryan Held, Justin Ress, Andreas Vazaios and Coleman Stewart will be huge for The Wolfpack both individually and in relays. Anton Oerskov Ipsen, Jacob Molacek, and Stuart Hennessey will also be significant point contributors. They’re title contenders in all the relays too, so if the rest of their roster shows up, their chances are certainly slimmer than Texas or Cal, but the team title is not completely out of the question. -SP

#2: CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (PREVIOUS RANK: #1)

I don’t find the argument that Texas qualified one more diver than Cal to be very convincing as to why they’re the favorite, especially considering Cal qualified 2 more swimmers than Texas, and is the only school to reach the roster cap. I’m confident that Cal will outscore Texas in the 100/200 breast, 200/400 IM, 100/200 fly, 1650, and relays as a whole. I consider the 50 and 100 free to be toss-ups where it’s too close for me to be confident which team will come out on top in them. That being said, I don’t see how I can call Texas the favorite, even though I think the meet will be a close one. -SP

Without Ryan Murphy, this team doesn’t have any guaranteed wins, but what it does have is a ton of depth. With potential scorers in every event, Cal probably has a higher “floor” than any other team. -RG

Top-to-bottom, Cal looks really, really good. If Ryan Hoffer explodes, they’ll be hard to beat in the relays. The freshman class will decide the fate of the Bears this year. -JA

#1: TEXAS LONGHORNS (PREVIOUS RANK: #2)

I had finally caved and listed Cal #1. Then Texas qualified three good divers for NCAAs. If John Shebat swims like he did last year, the meet isn’t close. If not, this thing might actually come down to the wire. -JA

Texas has been laying low for much of the season, but I think Tate Jackson‘s swims at Big 12 shows what this team can do. It’s still going to be close, but diving probably puts Texas on top. -RG

I have never counted Texas out this season, even if I have consistently had Cal as #1, it’s always been close in my mind. This round, I did put Cal at #1 with the most confidence I have all season, but the Texas swimmers have a history of swimming lights out when it really matters, and have traditionally been dangerous at the NCAAs. I may be wrong for putting Texas 2nd on this ranking, but I have to go with what my previewing of the meet tells me, and that’s that Cal has the advantage. -SP

FULL RANKING BALLOTS