2019-2020 NCAA Men’s Swimming & Diving Power Rankings: December Edition

As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order.  SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential.  These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion.  If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in a respectful way in our comments section.

Previous Ranks:

• First Edition (Preseason)
• November Edition (Pre-Winter Invites)

Check out our Swimulator for some early NCAA scoring projections based on current national ranks.

SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are the average of ballots from a panel of our top college swimming reporters. While this should help readers glean which teams are consensus picks at their rank and where in the order things get fuzzy and more subjective, bear in mind that these rankings are not an opportunity to personally attack any specific writer.

(Also receiving votes: Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Denver)

Change from previous ranks shown in parentheses

#20: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-)

Notre Dame didn’t have their best meet at last year’s NCAAs, but that shouldn’t discourage anyone from considering them a top 20 team. They’re not the most well-rounded team, but they do have considerable depth in some events. Notre Dame is one of only 4 teams that have 3 swimmers 4:18.0 or faster in the 500 this season. They have enough going for them in freestyle to make free relays capable of scoring, though the medleys will need some work. -SP

Zach Yeadon has had a great fall after kind of a rough spring, and while the Fighting Irish are probably going to need some relays to score to actually finish in the top 20, they’ve got a talented freshman class that should help in that regard come championship season. -RG

#19: USC Trojans (-1)

Alexei Sancov looks much-improved from his rookie year, with three 200-yard events in NCAA scoring range. USC always has its relays ready to go, and I refuse to believe they’ll only score 12, as currently projected. -JA

#18: Florida State Seminoles (Previously Unranked)

If you’re going to only do one thing well in college swimming, sprint free thing is the thing to do, and Neal Studd and the rest of the Seminoles’ staff have proven that they know what they’re doing in that discipline. But it’s also worth noting that senior backstroker Griffin Alaniz is two seconds faster in the 100 back than he was at this point last year, and has knocked over a second off his lifetime best to put him at #7 in the country. -RG

The Seminoles look awesome so far after coming into the season with way too little fanfare. They’ve got the sprint corps (Kuba Ksiazek 19.3/43.2/1:33.8; Peter Varjasi 19.4/42.8/1:34.7; Mohamed Ghaffari 1:34.7) to put together some huge relays. -JA

#17: Tennessee Volunteers (-2)

Having taken a big hit in diving points, the Volunteers need to repeat last year’s one up/one down finish for their medley relays to finish this high (I have them 16th). Those relays are currently ranked 7th and 11th, so that’s looking promising. -RG

I can’t wait for Michael Houlie to figure out yards. Especially in the 200. -KO

#16: Alabama Crimson Tide (+1)

Alabama and Florida State are both rebuilding their sprint corps, but I think the Crimson Tide gets the slight edge right now because of Zane Waddell‘s individual scoring potential. -RG

They’ve reloaded that 200 medley relay pretty well already. A killer leadoff like Zane Waddell sure helps. They’re going to need more individual scorers to finish in the top 20, though. -JA

#15: Georgia Bulldogs (-1)

Quite frankly, I feel like I have Georgia a bit high at #15, but every other team I’ve considered putting here has issues too, and of those teams, it feels like Georgia has the best chance of getting multiple swimmers (e.g., Walker Higgins, Camden Murphy) into A-finals. -RG

Dillon Downing might be a year away from being an NCAA impact sprinter, but he has already been relatively close to career-bests. With six swimmers projected to score individually, Georgia has the depth to be top 15 if things break right. -JA

#14: Stanford Cardinal (-4)

The Cardinal feel like a huge sleeper this season. They’ve got the star talent to put up big points come March, but after key absences killed them last season, and a relatively quiet fall, it’s tough to justify putting them into the top ten until we see more than we’ve seen hitherto. -RG

I can’t give up on Stanford yet. They finally have a healthy team, and they’ll show up when the time comes. -SP

#13: Arizona State Sun Devils (+6)

All five relays are projected to score big, including the nation’s #2 400 free relay. And this without redshirting Grant House or transferred Cameron Craig. Cody Bybee is really coming into his own. -JA

Their relays impressed at the NC State Invite, with the 2nd-fastest 400 free relay in the nation and a time that was just off their prelims time from NCAAs (and faster than their finals time). A Cody Bybee bounceback looks like it’ll go a long way toward blunting the loss of Grant House. -RG

#12: Virginia Cavaliers (-3)

Last year, UVA lurked pretty quietly until ACCs and NCAAs, and then impressed. They look to be following the same trajectory this season, and they should have the firepower for another top ten finish, if they put it together at the right time. -RG

#11: Missouri Tigers (+2)

How long are we supposed to pretend Mizzou’s top-10 standing in the Swimulator is entirely the product of suits? This team is really, really good, and they seem to be swimming great under the new coaching staff. I feel like Danny Kovac has been one of the more overlooked swimmers in college swimming, but after four lifetime-bests at the Mizzou Invite (1:42 in the IM, 52.7 in breaststroke, 19.6/42.9 in free), he’s not going to be overlooked for long. -JA

While lots of Mizzou men having been swimming fast so far this season, one name that stands out is backstroker Daniel Hein. He didn’t break 46.0 until last February, but was under that mark twice at the Mizzou Invite, something that should help solidify the Tigers’ medley relays. -RG

#10: Louisville Cardinals (-2)

Don’t rank Louisville based on mid-season results. That’s been a theme of the past couple years. We know the talent is there, and swimmers like Nicolas Albiero will rise when the post-season comes. The question mark here is Andrej Barna, an absolutely essential relay piece who has’t competed yet this season. -JA

Like the Cavaliers, the Cardinals have tended to have quiet mid-season invites and then explode at ACCs. They’ve got a solid core and some interesting newcomers who could show up big come February and March. -RG

#9: Arizona Wildcats (+3)

Arizona has put together a very nicely balanced team. They have all the relay events covered, and Brooks Fail should be contributing in the distance freestyles. -SP

Arizona ranks 5th in the Swimulator, and that’s without Australian IM star David Schlicht, a 22-point scorer from last year who is taking an Olympic redshirt season. I’d say there’s a real top 10 chance after some great swims at Minnesota. -JA

Brooks Fail is a machine. -KO

Raise your hand if you knew that the Wildcats have the 2nd-fastest 200 free relay in the country this season. (Okay, 3rd-fastest if you ignore the fact that Texas DQ’d for a suit violation). That 1:16.6 was faster than their best time from last season, and their 400 free relay is only 0.2s off last season’s best time. That bodes well for a top ten finish come March. -RG

#8: Florida Gators (-2)

A lot of split LCM/SCY focus has Florida way lower in the Swimulator (25th) than they’ll end up at NCAAs. One question mark: key relay swimmer Trey Freeman hasn’t competed since September. We’re told he’s dealing with an injury, but will compete once he’s cleared. Without him, they drop out of my top 10. -JA

This is kind of a tough team to peg right now. They had some promising swims early in the season, but there weren’t any super noticeable swims at the mid-season invite. Still, Kieran Smith is one of the most versatile/rangey swimmers in the country, and he can carry this team far. -RG

#7: Ohio State Buckeyes (-)

It’s been a quiet season so far, quiet enough to make you forget how much talent Ohio State has assembled. But Cameron Craig looks solid in his return to NCAA competition, and another great year from Paul DeLakis will give this team a ton of points and great relay legs. -JA

Recently, the Buckeyes haven’t competed in top form until Big Tens, and I expect that to be the case again this season. Make no mistake, they have the ability to make the top 8 in all 5 relays. Cameron Craig has already swum well this year, and could potentially be most beneficial as a 5 relay swimmer. -SP

It’s been a quiet season for OSU thus far, but they return eight of the twelve free relay legs that netted them 61 points in 2019, and Cameron Craig should more than adequately fill in the gap for three of those legs. -RG

#6: Texas A&M Aggies (+5)

Up to #4 in the Swimulator, Texas A&M is impossible to ignore. Shaine Casas is a true star and could realistically win an event or more come March. The freestyle depth is solid and the relays will be productive, though I don’t quite expect them to hold their projected 148 relay points, which is in line with Texas (154) and Cal (164). -JA

Shaine Casas has expedited his path to being an international star. His improvements already this year are clear. This team quietly has sleeper picks for NCAA titles, like Mark Theall in the 200 or 500 free, while freshman breaststroker Andres Puente already looks like an A-final dark horse in the 200 breast. -KO

Shaine Casas could be the best swimmer in the NCAA right now. On top of that, they have scoring-speed in some free and breast events. Their relays look like they’ll be strong, and if Jace Brown can really get his sprint fly going in the next few months, those medley relays could be deadly. -SP

Deep breaststroke group, strong relays, and Shaine Casas could very easily carry the Aggies to a top ten finish. -RG

#5: Indiana Hoosiers (-1)

IU looks solid. They don’t quite have enough all-stars to overcome a smaller base of national-level scorers like they have the past few seasons. One to watch: freshman Will Gallant has already dropped 27 seconds in his mile and six in his 500 free, and projects as a rookie NCAA scorer. -JA

Despite the losses from last year’s roster, the Hoosiers’ depth remains among the best in the NCAA. It looks likely IU will be represented in every event at NCAAs, with potential scorers in every event, except maybe the 400 IM. -SP

They took a bit hit in terms of graduating seniors, but returners like Bruno Blaskovic have looked solid, freshman Brendan Burns should help blunt the relay losses, and quite frankly, there’s really no other team that’s clearly knocking on the door of a top five finish. -RG

#4: NC State Wolfpack (-1)

The Wolfpack had some mixed results at the invite they hosted. Coleman Stewart and Nyls Korstanje did about what you expected, but there weren’t any other huge drops. Still, there were plenty of indications, including freshman Hunter Tapp’s and senior Noah Hensley’s free relay splits, that this team should still impress come spring.-RG

I’m not sure NC State has really put a team-wide focus on a short course meet yet, and their relay ranks reflect that. I expect the Wolfpack to blow away their current 115 projected relay points. The most exciting swimmer right now is Nyls Korstanje, who has been very close to lifetime-bests already this year. -JA

We haven’t really seen a complete NC State team yet this season. I have no worries about their ability to get it done in relays when the time comes. -SP

#3: Michigan Wolverines (+2)

Michigan has two relays ranked 3rd nationally: the 800 free and the 200 medley. Those are about as polar opposite as you can get, and the relays are made up by 8 different swimmers. That’s emblematic of how impressive Michigan has been this year – I don’t think we’ve seen their entire roster swim this well since they won NCAAs in 2013. -JA

Michigan has been incredibly good this season. Personally, I’m blown away by just how good this breaststroke squad is: 3 guys under 1:53.5 in the 200, as well as 51.6, 51.9, and 52.5 100 breaststrokers already this season. Their breast group could be better than Indiana’s this year, and right now it looks like Michigan may score the most points of any team in the breast events. -SP

Their huge breaststroke and IM groups are very impressive once again. Gus Borges is still improving incrementally, though a big second semester from freshman sprinter Cam Peel would be huge for their relays. Remember how disappointing their relays were last year? They’re top 10 in all five right now, including #3 in the 800 and the 200 medley. -KO

The distance and breaststroke groups should roll up big points, and the free relays are already looking better than they did last year. -RG

#2: Cal Golden Bears (-1)

Cal was largely so-so at Minnesota and missing Hugo Gonzalez, but I expect we’ll see much better performances at Pac-12s, and their best swims at NCAAs. -SP

It’s just hard to project what Hugo Gonzalez will ultimately do, without seeing him swim a whole lot this fall/winter. Another factor: the Cal freshmen just didn’t have any breakout swims at Minnesota. I’m still high on Jason Louser and Colby Mefford, but it’ll take a whale of a taper for those guys to be NCAA difference-makers this season. Cal is definitely taking the patient route, and they’re pretty reliable to show up when the post-season hits, but unless they can get a newcomer to score big somewhere, it looks like Texas’s additions have more than leveled the playing field. -JA

Hugo Gonzalez was out snagging Olympic qualification in Amsterdam mid-season, and overall it was evident that the Bears didn’t come down too much for the Minnesota Invite. Texas still blew them out of the water in Minneapolis, though. -KO

Let’s be clear: while Texas looks incredibly strong, Cal is by no means out of this. There’s still at least nine swimmers on this team who have the potential to make 2 or 3 A-finals each. This will come down to whichever team is closest to firing on all cylinders for the four days at NCAAs. Are you ready for March yet? I am. -RG

#1: Texas Longhorns (+1)

The Longhorns showed up at the Minnesota Invite with one of the most impressive mid-season invites we’ve ever seen. Right now, there’s at least 18 Longhorns safely qualified for NCAAs, with another five or six hovering right around last year’s invite times. Underclassmen like Braden Vines, Matt Willenbring, and Caspar Corbeau took some big steps forward, as did transfer Alvin Jiang. Still, despite the legendary “Texas Taper,” one of the things that hobbled the Longhorns last year was that some of the guys who had big swims at mid-season couldn’t match those times in March. -RG

There’s no denying Texas has been the highest performing team through the Fall semester. Honestly, it’s not even close. Everything is going the Longhorns’ way right now. They’re looking like title contenders in all 5 relays, Sam Pomajevich looks to be fully out of his sophomore slump, Daniel Krueger has been phenomenal, and we can’t forget the diving squad. -SP

Texas is scary fast right now, and they have an army of people lined up for a vast array of relay possibilities. Their roster is of course limited for NCAAs, so the coaches have some scoring possibility puzzles they’ll need to solve come March. -KO

It takes a lot for me to change my #1. Texas has done a lot. They have a 314-point lead over Cal in the Swimulator that doesn’t even factor in Texas’s huge diving advantage. The only worry is that Texas really hasn’t swum all that well at NCAAs since 2017. But the roster-wide talent is too much to ignore at this point. Under-discussed newcomer to watch: freshman Peter Larson, who dropped from 1:35.3 to 1:33.6 in the 200 free while swimming the invite back in his home state of Minnesota. -JA

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