2021 Men’s NCAAs Cutline Analysis: Invited Times Faster than 2020 in Two Events

2021 NCAA MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• When: Wednesday, March 24 – Saturday, March 27, 2021
• Where: Greensboro Aquatic Center / Greensboro, NC (Eastern Time Zone)
• Prelims 10 AM/ Finals 6 PM (Local Time)
• Short course yards (SCY) format
• Defending champion: Cal (1x) – 2019 results
• Streaming:
• Championship Central
• Psych Sheets
• Live Results

The NCAA has released its official psych sheets (along with the invite line) for the 2021 Men’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships. The meet itself takes place later this month, from March 24-27 in Greensboro, North Carolina.

YOU CAN SEE ALL THE RELEVANT DOCUMENTS HERE:

• Official Psych Sheets (with cutlines)
• Invited Swimmers by Team (Doesn’t include relay-only swimmers)
• Eligible Relays
• Alternates List

With the release of the men’s psych sheets, we’re doing a cutline analysis of 2021 versus 2020, just as we did with the women’s meet. The “cutline” refers to the last invited time in each event.

A note: If you are unfamiliar with the NCAAs meet format, when you view the psych sheet, you will see several times listed below the cutline. These are swimmers who earned an invite in another event, and are swimming the event where they’re listed slower than the invited time as a bonus event. Once a swimmer has earned an invite to NCAAs in any event, they’re automatically eligible to swim a maximum of 3 individual events, provided they have achieved the NCAA ‘B’ time standard in the event.

The most notable difference between the men’s and women’s cutline analysis this year is that, unlike with this year’s women’s meet, there were cutlines that got faster from last year. Although they improved by tiny margins, the 200 free invited time was 0.03 seconds faster this year, while the 100 breast was 0.06 seconds faster.

Also of note, the difference between this year’s men’s invited times and last year’s are largely negligible, while the differences in the women’s invited times were more stark. For example, the 100 and 200 back are only 0.47 seconds slower combined than they were in 2020, and the fly events were only a combined 0.61 seconds slower. In terms of similarities, the longer events saw the biggest slowdowns this year over last year, although even in those events, the differences were considerably greater for the women’s meet.

The greatest percentage change from this year versus last year came in the men’s 400 IM, which was 1.31 seconds slower than last year. That greatest percentage change in the women’s meet came in the 500 free, an event which for the men was only 0.26 seconds slower than last year.

The reasons for most events slowing down can likely be explained in the same way the women’s slowdowns can be. The interruptions in training due to the COVID-19 global pandemic are certainly one of the primary factors, especially for the longer events. The Ivy League sitting this season out, as well as many mid major conferences opting to delay their conference championships until April also likely played a role.

As to why the men’s NCAA invited times saw less of a change than the women’s times did, there are a few potential explanations. Firstly, the men’s NCAA meet is smaller than the women’s meet, meaning that approximately 10-12 less swimmers are invited in each event each year. That could be a factor in why the men’s changes weren’t as drastic, because the smaller field means the men’s fields don’t go as deep as the women’s do, so there’s a little less room for fluctuation.

Another possible reason for the difference is that typically less men’s swimmers from mid major programs make it to NCAAs than mid major women’s swimmers. “Mid major” refers to those NCAA DI conferences outside the “Power 5”, which are the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC. The reason less mid major men’s swimmers make men’s NCAAs is likely due to a combination of the smaller fields in the men’s NCAAs events, and the fact that there are significantly less mid major men’s swimming & diving programs than there are women’s programs. Many mid major conferences opted to delay their conference championships until April, which likely would have less of an effect on men’s NCAAs than women’s, since less men’s swimmers from mid major programs typically earn invites to NCAAs.