2023-24 NCAA Men’s Power Rankings: Pre-Season Edition

As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order. SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential. These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion. If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in our comments section.

Braden Keith, Spencer Penland, Robert Gibbs, Yanyan Li, Sophie Kaufman and Anya Pelshaw contributed to this report.

Heading into last year there was some trepidation regarding Arizona State’s ceiling and if they were a legitimate NCAA title contender. The Sun Devils proved they were, putting up a good fight with Cal before falling 52 points shy in March.

Now, ASU looks like it could be the team to beat this season, though our writers are pretty split on who the favorite for national champion should be here in September.

Regardless, we’re predicting things to shake out similarly to last year, with a battle between the Bears and Sun Devils for the top spot followed by some combination of Texas, Indiana, NC State and Florida, though the Longhorns are expected to drop from their 3rd-place showing due to some major losses.

Georgia, Virginia and Notre Dame are three schools we’re predicting make a jump up the standings, while some notable fallers are Auburn, Louisville and Mizzou.

• See the women’s power rankings here.

Honorable Mentions: LSU Tigers, Pennsylvania Quakers, Penn State Nittany Lions, North Carolina Tar Heels

I am convinced that Matt Fallon alone will put Penn in the top 25. -YL

#25: KENTUCKY WILDCATS +3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 28)

Look, it was really tight in this part of the NCAA standings last season, and the other teams at this tier all lost major points contributors. Levi Sandidge might be the Wildcats’ only scorer, and he might only score in the 1650, but it could give Kentucky all they need to scrape into 25th. -SK

Basically what Sophie said. -YL

#24: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -5 (2023 NCAA RANK: 19)

Alabama suffered big losses during the offseason, so expect them to slide down the standings as a result. -SK

#23: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS +15 (2023 NCAA RANK: 38)

Brady Samuels has been building momentum and looks like a multi-event scorer this season. Purdue also had three diving finishes that were 17th or 18th last season, and if Jordan Rzepka and Sam Bennett can bump up a few slots this is likely a top-25 team. -JS

#22: SMU MUSTANGS +17 (2023 NCAA RANK: NF/39*)

*scored zero points, last place team (1 point) was 38th

I know the main reason why we are putting SMU is (rightfully) because of Jack Hoagland, but we have to remember that they qualified Colin Feehery (who is in 400 IM scoring range) for NCAAs as well. These two will be a great dynamic duo. -YL

#21: MIAMI HURRICANES +2 (2023 NCAA RANK: 23)

The diving trio of Max Flory, Mohamed Farouk and Brodie Scapens keeps them in the 20-25 range. -JS

#20: MIZZOU TIGERS -4 (2023 NCAA RANK: 16)

Grant Bochenski is coming off a big summer and will be relied upon to drive the relays this season given their significant losses. -JS

#19: USC TROJANS +3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 22)

Shangfei Wang put USC 22nd alone last year, and they’re adding the Chmielewski brothers and have a few others with scoring potential. -JS

#18: WISCONSIN BADGERS +5 (2023 NCAA RANK: 23)

After scoring two relays last season, expect that to be a point of emphasis for the Badgers to go along with individual standout Jake Newmark. -JS

#17: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES +3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 20)

Let’s call it what it is: Michigan (by Michigan standards) wasn’t that great last year. That being said, there’s a lot of reason for hope in Ann Arbor. Not only do the Wolverines have a new coaching staff, but they return many of their best athletes from last year as well. On top of that, they’re bringing in a very solid freshman class, which should really help strengthen some of the weaker areas of last year’s team. -SP

#16: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS -3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 13)

It’s hard to peg Louisville; they had an uncharacteristically rough NCAAs, and they’ve reloaded this year with a bunch of international recruits. If those freshmen do what it looks like they may be capable of, watch for the Cardinals to climb the rankings again. -RG

#15: TEXAS A&M AGGIES -1 (2023 NCAA RANK: 14)

The Aggies lose their breaststroker Bustamante, but bring in our #13 ranked recruit Logan Brown who can fill in that hole on the medley relays. Baylor Nelson will only get better after a phenomenal freshman year. The reported suspension of some swimmers for the fall throws in some uncertainty, however. -JS

#14: NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH +4 (2023 NCAA RANK: 18)

They’ve lost their top 2023 NCAA scorer Jack Hoagland, but Chris Guiliano is riding a ton of momentum, and they’ve got some incoming transfers that have the potential to be quite valuable to the program. -SK

I think the Fighting Irish are one of the most interesting teams to watch for this season, especially with Abdelrahman Elaraby arriving to help out the relays. -RG

One of the biggest narratives of the NCAA season will be Tanner Filion. He was one of the biggest stars in DIII and is now getting a chance on the DI stage with a rising program. -YL

#13: AUBURN TIGERS -3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 10)

Relays will be crucial for Auburn to have a chance at maintaining their place in the top-10 from last season. There aren’t many swimmers in scoring position outside of the Stoffle brothers. -JS

#12: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -1 (2023 NCAA RANK: 11)

The Buckeyes lose some relay members but bring back a very similar squad, with the return of Ruslan Gaziev being particularly crucial. -JS

#11: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS +4 (2023 NCAA RANK: 15)

Matt King was such an important part of this UVA team the last time they finished top 12, so his absence will hurt. However, the Cavs just got a HUGE influx of sprinters (Anthony Grimm, Jack Maddoch, Hayden Belotti), and sprinters win championships. -YL

The Cavalier men underperformed at NCAAs last for the first time in the DeSorbo era. This ranking is based on my assumption that it won’t happen again, especially given just how much talent there is on this team. -RG

#10: GEORGIA BULLDOGS +2 (2023 NCAA RANK: 12)

The returning fifth-year crew does a lot to keep the Dawgs afloat. Ruard van Renen and Miles Simon could also prove to be huge pick-ups for Georgia. -SK

#9: VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES – (2023 NCAA RANK: 9)

The Hokies hit a program-best finish last year despite not firing on all cylinders at NCAAs. #9 feels just about right again, although the ceiling is certainly higher. -RG

#8: STANFORD CARDINAL – (2023 NCAA RANK: 8)

How their high-powered freshmen class turns out will be one of the biggest deciding factors in how Stanford’s season turns out. -SK

#7: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS – (2023 NCAA RANK: 7)

Let’s see what this sprint crew can do without Josh Huger. -YL

Nikoli Blackman could give Tennessee one of the best sprint free 1-2-3s in the league with Jordan Crooks and Gui Caribe, but it will be interesting to see how the entire sprint group responds to Josh Huger‘s departure. -SK

#6: TEXAS LONGHORNS -3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 3)

Honestly, given the staggering losses, the Longhorns may have to battle just to hold on to 6th. Will Modglin and Nate Germonprez should help save the relays, but there’s a still of holes. -RG

#5: NC STATE WOLFPACK – (2023 NCAA RANK: 5)

The Wolfpack are expected to be in the fight with Florida, Texas and Indiana, just like last season, and it seems as though, while their losses aren’t as significant as Texas, the Gators and Hoosiers are in a more favorable spot. Losing a relay horse like Korstanje, and an individual 25-point scorer like Gallant, is tough. But they’ve always managed to field outstanding relays, so nothing is set in stone. -JS

#4: INDIANA HOOSIERS – (2023 NCAA RANK: 4)

Love how the Hoosiers look going into this season. Two big losses in Van Mathias and Andrew Capobianco. However, IU brings in a huge incoming class, both in its size and its ability to produce NCAA points for them. Ahmed Hafnaoui, who could very well win both the 1650 and 500 free obviously headlines that class. -SP

I’m excited to see what Ahmed Hafnaoui brings to the NCAA this season. -SK

#3: FLORIDA GATORS +3 (2023 NCAA RANK: 6)

I think the battle for third between Florida and Indiana will be super close (they both have huge gains and major losses, but ultimately I think Florida wins it with their ridiculous relays and a better recruiting class. -YL

#2: CAL GOLDEN BEARS -1 (2023 NCAA RANK: 2)

I want to see what Cal looks like before putting Arizona State ahead of them. The Sun Devils look good, but Cal also has a great incoming class. -SP

I get the argument for putting ASU in the top spot, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sun Devils make a run at the title, especially given how sharp they look already. But Cal retains enough talent that I think they get they stay here until they show they don’t deserve it. -RG

Even with the Commonwealth champion Pieter Coetze deferring a year, Cal has a ton of freshmen talent coming in. Their pace of development will determine if Durden’s crew can hold off Arizona State for a three-peat. -BK

#1: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS +1 (2023 NCAA RANK: 2)

Okay, so here’s the math—Cal beat ASU by 52 points last year. Hugo Gonzalez, Lucas Henveaux, and Reece Whitley (who are gone now), combined for 81 points, while Grant House (ASU’s only big loss) scored 30 points. So that makes them about even, and I think Ilya Kharun + the other ASU freshmen (under Bob Bowman, we never know who’s gonna come out of nowhere and develop super well) can outscore Cal’s entire freshman class this year. So I’m going with ASU on top. -YL

Hard to not love ASU after those dual meets against Georgia this past weekend. Ilya Kharun is somehow already one of the fastest flyers in the NCAA. -SP

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