2023 U.S. Trials Previews: Momentum Versus Experience in the Men’s 200 IM

2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 27 – July 1, 2023
• Indianapolis, IN
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheet (pre-scratch)
• SwimSwam Preview Index

Men’s 200 IM — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record – 1:54.00, Ryan Lochte (2011)
• American Record – 1:54.00, Ryan Lochte (2011)
• U.S. Open Record — 1:54.56, Ryan Lochte (2009)
• 2022 U.S. International Team Trials Champion – Chase Kalisz (1:56.65)
• World Aquatics ‘A’ Cut – 1:59.53

The 1:55 Club

Only five USA men have lifetime bests of 1:55-something, and three of them should be vying for two World Championships spots in this event later this week.

The name that tops the psych sheet, though, is someone who’s yet to swim this event on the world stage, and that’s Shaine Casas. The former Aggie-turned-Longhorn Aquatics swimmer didn’t contest this event at last April’s Trials. But he delivered a historic performance at Nationals later in the summer, cranking out a 1:55.24 that was just 0.02s shy of Leon Marchand’s winning time at Worlds. Not only that, but he moved to #3 all-time among US men, behind only Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. Casas is usually a fast in-season swimmer, and sure enough, he’s already been 1:56.06 just a few months ago. If Casas chooses to swim this event and is locked in, he should be the favorite to win.

But, Casas can’t afford to be off his A-game, as he figures to face two main challengers who have also been sub-1:56. Training partner Carson Foster sits at #2 on the psych sheet, thanks to his 1:55.71 from last summer, a time that earned him silver in this event at Worlds. Foster had previously struggled a bit at major meets, just missing the Olympic Team in multiple events the previous year, but he had a breakthrough last summer, and should vie for a spot on the team once again.

Casas and Foster have the recent momentum, but veteran Chase Kalisz has the experience. His lifetime best of 1:55.40 came from the 2018 Pan Pacific Championships and puts him at #6 on the all-time US list, just ahead of Foster. Kalisz won this event at Trials last summer but finished just outside of the medals at Worlds with a 1:56.43. He’s represented the US in this event at the last three long course World Champions and the Tokyo Olympics, and while time may not be on his side at the age of 29, you can’t count him out, especially if Casas or Foster slip at all.

It feels like a given that Casas, Foster, and Kalisz should occupy the top three spots. We’ve defaulted to seed times in our picks below, but it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the trio finish in any of the six possible permutations where they collectively take the top three spots.

The Sub-1:57 Absences

There are three other swimmers who rank among the all-time top ten for US men who have not officially retired, but won’t be competing in this event. Arguably the most obvious name is Michael Andrew, who is also a member of the 1:55 club with a best of 1:55.26 from the 2021 Olympic Trials. But, swim fans won’t get the treat of seeing Andrew’s fly-and-die approach, as he’s focusing on the 50 free on the final day of the competition.

Ryan Lochte, the world record holder hasn’t officially retired, but he hasn’t logged an official swim since THE Olympic Trials, and seems more focused on activities other than swimming currently.

Somewhat similarly, Sam Stewart appears to be done with swimming. Last summer, the former Longhorn finished 3rd at Trials with a 1:57.70, then blasted a 1:56.91 later in the summer. That time made him one of only two U.S. swimmers with a lifetime best of 1:56-something and put him at #9 all-time among U.S. men. However, while he never formally announced his retirement as far as we can tell, he hasn’t competed this year and appears to have joined the Air Force while enrolling in medical school.

The Usual Suspects

There’s a pretty wide gap between the top three and the rest of the field, but with spots for other international teams on the line, the A-final should feature plenty of familiar faces.

Kieran Smith has the fastest lifetime best of the bunch, having gone as fast last 1:57.23. Smith, more known for his mid-distance dominance, finished 8th last year and ranks #5 among US men this season. Most likely, this will be a “bonus” event for him after qualifying in one or more freestyle events, but it’s worth remembering that he finished 3rd at Olympic Trials in this event in 2021, behind only Andrew and Kalisz, en route to clocking that lifetime best.

Another international team veteran, Trenton Julian, is the only other swimmer in the field who’s been under 1:58, with his best of 1:57.86 coming from the 2021 Speedo Summer Championships – West. Last summer, he and former Cal teammate Destin Lasco tied for 4th at 1:58.42, which stands as Lasco’s lifetime best. Lasco is coming off a strong college season where he helped lead the Golden Bears to their second-straight championship.

Carson’s brother Jake Foster is another familiar face in this event, and he sits just behind Julian and Lasco on the psych sheets with a time of 1:58.64, from his 6th-place effort last year. While he didn’t hit many personal bests during this past college season, he’s been looking strong so far this long course season, including a lifetime best in the 100 breast and the 8th-fastest time in the country this year in this event.

Fellow former Longhorn Will Licon has been on the scene for nearly a decade, and his lifetime best of 1:58.43 comes from way back in 2015. He finished 2nd in the ‘B’ final last year, two spots ahead of another stalwart, former Bulldog Jay Litherland, who holds a best of 1:58.46 from 2017. Litherland now trains at ASU alongside Kalisz and Grant House, who while primarily a freestyler, finished 7th in this event last year with a 1:59.23, just shy of his best of 1:59.03.

The Rising Stars

Maximus Williamson is one of the youngest swimmers in the field, but he’s 7th on the psych sheet, thanks to a 1:59.01 from the 2022 Junior Pan Pacs. Williamson is riding momentum as one of several teenage stars who have been laying waste to National Age Group records seemingly at will.

Another of those star teens is Daniel Diehl, the only other US swimmer we haven’t mentioned yet who’s been under 2:00 this season, with his best of 1:59.89 also coming at the US Open. There are a ton of experienced swimmers with lifetime bests under 1:59, so we didn’t pick either Williamson or Diehl to make the A-final, but if we’re right on that count, expect the two of them to be in the mix for a B-final victory.

Thomas Heilman, the youngest swimmer in the field, has “only” been a 2:03.24, and he could opt for the 50 free over this event on the final day. But he owns a yards best of 1:41.71, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him flirt with the 2:00 barrier if he does swim this.

Baylor Nelson won the B-final here last year before graduating high school, and he continued his momentum into a great freshman with Texas A&M, including an A-final appearance in the yards version of this event at NCAAs. Nelson currently ranks 4th in the US this season, behind only the three chief contenders, with a 1:59.14 from the US Open last fall.

Cal’s Gabriel Jett and ASU’s Owen McDonald are two other young college rising stars to keep an eye on. McDonald is part of that strong Sun Devil IM group, and sits 14th on the psych sheet with a 2:00.72. He’s been on a strong improvement curve, having already improved by three seconds in this event in less than two years. Jett also already clocked a lifetime best this season, shaving 0.16s off his previous best with a 2:01.40 in Mission Viejo last month.

SwimSwam’s Picks: 

Dark Horse: Arsenio Bustos – Bustos had a breakout sophomore campaign for the NC State Wolfpack, including an A-final appearance in the 200 IM. He’s only seeded 34th here with a time of 2:02.93, but his lifetime best is actually a 2:00.89 from 2021. One big point in Bustos’ favor—he’s a true four-stroke swimmer, without any real “weak” stroke. He’s improved his yards time by over three seconds since 2021, and any sort of comparable improvement in long course could put him in the middle of the A-final.