2023 U.S. Trials Previews: Next Wave To Challenge Ledecky’s Reign In 200 Free

2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 27 – July 1, 2023
• Indianapolis, IN
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheet (pre-scratch)
• SwimSwam Preview Index

WOMEN’S 200 FREE – BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 1:52.98, Federica Pellegrini (ITA) – 2009 World Championships
• American Record: 1:53.61, Allison Schmitt – 2012 Olympic Games
• U.S. Open Record: 1:54.13, Summer McIntosh (CAN) – 2023 Pro Swim Series – Fort Lauderdale
• 2022 U.S. International Team Trials Winner: Katie Ledecky, 1:55.15
• World Aquatics ‘A’ Cut: 1:58.66

It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for Katie Ledecky in the women’s 200 freestyle internationally. Of the four events she’s contested on the global stage, it’s the only one she hasn’t been able to dominate for the majority of her career. But in the U.S., she’s been untouchable.

Ledecky is coming up on a decade of domestic dominance in the 200 free as we head to Trials this week in Indianapolis, with Missy Franklin the last swimmer to beat Ledecky head-to-head in the event at a National Championships/selection meet in 2013.

Katie Ledecky (photo: Jack Spitser)

After winning the world title in 2015 and then Olympic gold in 2016, Ledecky hasn’t won a major title in the 200 free since. She hasn’t raced it at the last two World Championships, first turning up ill in 2019 and then dropping the event from her program last year due in part to the scheduling conflict it has with the 1500 free.

However, it was just one month after the World Championships when Ledecky put up a time of 1:54.50 at U.S. Summer Nationals, which was more than four-tenths faster than what won gold in the event in Budapest. She also split 1:53.67 on the U.S. women’s 800 free relay, propelling the team to the world title by more than two seconds.

Do these performances change her stance on racing the event in Fukuoka this summer? Maybe, maybe not. Of course, none of this matters at the moment, and won’t matter at all if Ledecky doesn’t get the job done in Indianapolis.

There are a plethora of contenders who pose a challenge to Ledecky, from up-and-coming stars to established veterans, not to mention those who specialize elsewhere but add the 200 free to their program to vie for a relay berth.

But despite so many swimmers chomping at the bit, Ledecky remains the big favorite. She won the 2022 Trials by nearly two seconds in 1:55.15, has 14 sub-1:55 swims on her resume, and since the beginning of 2022, she’s the fastest American by more than a second and a half.

She’s only been 1:54 a handful of times in-season throughout her career, and the fact she was able to go 1:54.96 in March tells us she’s in shape to be faster than that this week and should be able to cruise to yet another victory on home soil.

THE SANDPIPER TRIO

The well-established Sandpipers of Nevada “triple threat” of Bella Sims, Katie Grimes and Claire Weinstein figure to feature prominently in the 200 free final in Indy, with all three good enough to finish in the top six and earn a Worlds berth.

Bella Sims. Photo: Chris Pose

Sims has the most deceiving entry time, perhaps of the entire meet, in the 200 free. She placed fifth at the 2022 Trials in 1:57.71, but then, after securing a spot in the final of the women’s 800 free relay at Worlds with a 1:55.91 split in the prelims, she dropped a 1:54.60 anchor leg to power the U.S. to the world title. The only swimmers faster in the field were Ledecky and individual world champion Yang Junxuan (Summer McIntosh, who like Ledecky, didn’t race the 200 free individually, led off the Canadian team in 1:54.79).

There’s something to be said about the adrenaline that comes when you swim on a relay versus individually, especially as the anchor, but if Sims can channel some of the early speed she showed in Budapest, she could give Ledecky a run for the win.

Set to enter her freshman year at the University of Florida where she’ll become a training mate of Ledecky’s, Sims already has two sub-1:58 swims under her belt this year, clocking 1:57.87 in January and 1:57.63 in April. Her best time of 1:57.53 stems from the 2021 Olympic Trials, but all indications are that it will be shattered this week.

Claire Weinstein (photo: Jack Spitser)

Weinstein was one of the breakout stories of the 2022 Trials when she placed second to Ledecky in the 200 free in a PB of 1:57.08, and she followed up by going faster twice at the World Championships, getting down to 1:56.71 leading off the gold medal-winning 800 free relay.

All of that came while she was still just 15.

Now 16, Weinstein has been training for everything with the Sandpipers distance crew, winning the U.S. junior national title in the 7.5km open water event in April, which makes her ability in the 200 all the more impressive.

She’s been 1:58.6 this season, putting her on track for another 1:56-high/1:57-low swim in Indy.

Grimes is the most distance-oriented of the three, having won the U.S. national title in the women’s 10km and qualified to swim the marathon event in Fukuoka. She was a finalist in the 200 free at the 2022 Trials, placing eighth in 1:58.22, but has lowered her PB twice this year, first going 1:58.04 in March before getting down to 1:57.85 in April.

The 17-year-old might not have the speed of some others in the field, but not many will be able to match her over the closing meters.

THE (OTHER) YOUNG CONTENDERS

The Sandpipers represent a good portion of the next generation in the women’s 200 free, but there are a few others in position to make an impact sooner rather than later.

Erin Gemmell (photo: Jack Spitser)

First up is Erin Gemmell, who has really taken off over the last 12 months after placing seventh at the 2022 Trials.

Having narrowly missed a spot on the World Championship team in the relay, Gemmell when to Summer Nationals in July and dropped a massive best time of 1:56.14, ranking her second among Americans for the year. The following month she lit it up at Junior Pan Pacs in Hawaii, winning six gold medals including the 200 free, where she was .01 off her PB in 1:56.15.

She also broke 1:57 in the prelims (1:56.66) at Junior Pan Pacs, and split 1:54.86 on the 800 free relay, so she’s well on her way to a 1:55 flat start. Throw in the fact that Gemmell was 1:57.1 in May, and it’s clear that she’s coming into Nationals on good form.

Along with Ledecky and Gemmell, the only other American who ranks inside the world’s top 25 this season is Anna Peplowski, who entered 2023 with a lifetime best of 1:59.87, but has been faster four times over the last six months, highlighted by her 1:57.02 at the Indy Spring Cup in May.

The 20-year-old was sixth at the 2023 NCAA Championships in the 200 free during her sophomore year at Indiana, and set a PB of 1:42.86 leading off the Hoosiers’ 800 free relay, so in addition to riding some momentum, she’s also proven she can swim her fastest when she needs to. But with only one swim under 1:58 on her resume, she’s a little more difficult to predict compared to some of others.

Leah Hayes is predominantly known for her medley prowess, but she swam a PB of 1:58.27 in April and is only 17, so she could have another time drop coming soon, as could Kayla Wilson, who is coming off a successful freshman year at Stanford that included placing fourth in the 200 free at NCAAs.

Wilson won bronze in the 200 free at Junior Pan Pacs last year in a best time of 1:58.42 and although she’s only been 2:01.34 so far this season, the majority of Stanford’s swimmers haven’t been particularly fast so far in the long course campaign and will be saving everything up for Nationals.

VETERANS & NON-FREESTYLERS

Leah Smith has been a constant near the top of the U.S. rankings in the women’s 200 and 400 freestyle dating back to the Rio Olympics, and is the fourth American swimmer sub-1:57 in the 200 dating back to the beginning of 2022, joining Ledecky, Gemmell and Weinstein.

Leah Smith (photo: Jack Spitser)

Smith earned an individual berth at the 2022 World Championships after Ledecky’s withdrawal, placing ninth in Budapest in 1:56.90. She also contributed a 1:56.47 split on the victorious 800 free relay, and has had a bit of a career revival since moving to the University of Texas training squad with Carol Capitani.

However, Smith’s 1:56.9 swim in Budapest is her only sub-1:57 performance since 2017, and she’ll likely need to be right on that to book a spot on the relay this year.

Paige Madden is another veteran who has undergone a major change in her career of late, moving to Loughborough University last year after making the Olympic team in 2021.

Madden revealed she was dealing with Hashimoto’s disease at last year’s Trials, where she missed the 200 free ‘A’ final, but has rebounded well in 2023 and logged a 1:57.62 swim in April. The 24-year-old has two career swims under 1:57, and is trending on getting back there if she hits her taper.

The other two major names to watch for are Hali Flickinger and Alex Walsh, who specialize elsehwere but have shown an ability to compete with the best in this event as they vie for a relay spot.

Flickinger will have her eyes on the 200 fly on Day 1, but will in the hunt in the 200 free the following day, though she’ll likely need to be right on or under her PB of 1:57.53 to solidify a top-six finish. She swam that time at last year’s Trials where she was fourth.

Walsh, who will be focused on the 200 and 400 IM in Indianapolis, will kick off her schedule with the 200 free, where she finished sixth last year in 1:57.82. She led off the prelim relay in Budapest in 1:57.94, and then essentially matched her PB earlier this month in 1:57.84.

Both she and Flickinger will be right there in 1:57 territory, which figures to be right in the thick of the battle for relay spots.

Justina Kozan, Cavan Gormsen and Jillian Cox are three others with best times under 1:59 that could mix into the ‘A’ final if they have a PB in the prelims, while Kelly Pash is coming off a strong season at Texas and hit a best time of 1:59.33 in May, making her another challenger.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Isabel Ivey – Ivey, the 2022 NCAA runner-up in the 200 free, took an extended break out of the water amid the uncertainty at Cal as the coaching reins changed hands, and she announced her transfer to the University of Florida in December, where she’s been training for the last seven months. Ivey has 15 swims sub-2:00 on her resume, though just two under 1:59. Having gone 1:59.60 in May, she’s a candidate to have a bit of a breakthrough and potentially get into 1:57 territory.