2023 World Champs Preview: Australia Looks to Retain Sprint Dominance in Mixed Fr Relay

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Book

By the Numbers – Mixed 4×100 Free Relay

• World Record: World Record: Jack Cartwright, Kyle Chalmers, Madi Wilson, Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia – 3:19.38 (2022)
• World Junior Record: Luca Urlando, Adam Chaney, Amy Tang, Gretchen Walsh, USA – 3:25.84 (2019)
• Championship Record: Jack Cartwright, Kyle Chalmers, Madi Wilson, Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia – 3:19.38 (2022)
• 2022 World Champion: Jack Cartwright, Kyle Chalmers, Madi Wilson, Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia – 3:19.38 (2022)

Much like the 50s of stroke, the mixed 4×100 freestyle relay is a non-Olympic event, however, that by no means implies that it lacks importance.

Held on the penultimate day, the relay occurs at the end of a very busy and sprint-heavy session. The men’s 50 free final, the semis of the 50 back, and the final of the 100 fly all occur before the relay, as do the semis of the women’s 50 free, 50 breast, and the final of the 50 fly.

The United States came into the 2022 World Championships as the reigning three-time world champions and held the world record at 3:19.40. However, due to a variety of circumstances, including Caeleb Dressel’s withdrawal, the U.S. found itself leaving Budapest with just the bronze, falling to the greatest sprinting country in the world and to their resurgent neighbors to the north.

Back to the Gold

Eschewing the event entirely in 2015 and for lack of a better term using a ‘B’ squad in 2017, when it comes to the mixed freestyle relay, the Aussies have certainly changed their tune of late.

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

In 2019, the team of Kyle Chalmers, Clyde Lewis, Emma McKeon, and Bronte Campbell placed 2nd behind the Americans in a time of 3:19.97. Three years later, the team of Jack Cartwright, Chalmers, Madi Wilson, and Mollie O’Callaghan improved by one spot, nabbing the gold in 3:19.38 and in the process resetting the world record set by the Americans in 2019.

With the final of the 100 free for both the men and women as well as their respective 4×100 free relays occurring earlier in the schedule, the Australian coaching staff (or any coaching staff for that matter) will have plenty of data to determine who is in good form and ready to try to lower that world record mark.

The Aussies dominated the relay last year, with Chalmers posting the fastest split in the field, 46.98. For reference, the next fastest was Italy’s Alessandro Miressi, who split 47.50. Not to be outdone, O’Callaghan’s 52.03 represented the fastest women’s split and her teammate Wilson had the 3rd fastest.

What is concerning for the rest of the field is that the Aussies could even be faster this year. After Chalmers, their second entrant in the 100 free, Flynn Southam, is entered with a time of 47.77—a time that is 35 one-hundredths faster than what Cartwright led off in last year. If they add in Emma McKeon, who was nine-tenths faster than Wilson at the Australian Trials and owns a 51.35 split from the Tokyo Olympics, their competition won’t be other teams, but rather the clock.

Split Comparison: Australia

Just using their season-best flat starts, the team of Southam, Chalmers, McKeon and O’Callaghan’s cumulative time would have placed 2nd in the final last year, (to themselves). While Chalmers and McKeon’s fastest splits are from 2021 and both have had time off since then, the math on just how fast the team could be is scary.

The American Redemption

If the event was swum on paper then the Aussies would be the clear favorite, as it is the Aussies are the clear favorites. But fortunately for the Americans, it is not swum on paper but rather in the pool, and as such there remains a chance for an upset.

Ryan Held (photo: Jack Spitser)

The U.S. were three-time champions in this event dating back to its inception in 2015, yet their dominance faltered in 2022 when the Aussies took advantage of a tired and relatively inexperienced squad. Dressel had withdrawn from the meet and the star U.S. female sprinter, Simone Manuel, was absent from the meet entirely. The responsibility to make it four for four fell to Ryan Held, Brooks Curry, Torri Huske, and Claire Curzan, who had a combined four international long-course medals between them heading into Budapest.

While the quartet all left Budapest with multiple medals, the performance in this event was disappointing, but 13 months later the U.S. finds itself in a better position. This year, besides the Australians, the Americans are the only nation that has two men and two women in the top 10 of world rankings in the 100 free.

Split Comparison: USA

*Using the fastest two times from Trials not based on the order of finish in finals

While the Aussie’s cumulative season-bests were just a little slower than their time last year, the Americans’ is actually faster, and that is just from flat starts. Using their fastest relay splits, the time difference between the Aussie and American relays grows larger, but both Jack Alexy and Kate Douglass’s best times are from flat starts, so they could lose another couple of tenths of a second from that time of 3:19.80.

If Dressel was on form and had made the team, then it would be a much closer race, but the strength of the Australian female sprinters is too much of a difference to overcome, at least at the moment. With both Abbey Weitzeil and Douglass hitting personal bests at Trials, the gap could start to shrink.

Injuries and Old Silvers

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Placing ahead of the U.S. last year was the team from Canada. Comprised of Josh Liendo (48.02), Javier Acevedo (47.96), Kayla Sanchez (52.52), and Penny Oleksiak (52.11), the quartet won silver in a time of 3:20.61.

While Chalmers’ split gave the Australians the lead, the Canadians had to rely upon their strong female swimmers to overtake the U.S. team to finish in the runner-up spot. The silver medal represented an improvement upon the two bronze medals they won in 2015 and 2017 and the 4th place finish in 2019. With both Acevedo and Liendo returning this year and with the marked improvements Liendo has made this season, the Canadian men seem to be in good form. However, questions abound when it comes to the women.

Sanchez has switched sporting nationality to the Philippines and Oleksiak withdrew from the meet due to injury. The only Canadian entry in the women’s 100 free is Mary-Sophie Harvey, who has an entry time of 54.77. Also on the roster are Summer McIntosh (SB: 54.39) Maggie MacNeil (SB: 54.58) and Brooklyn Douthwright (SB: 55.15). Additionally, Taylor Ruck is listed on the roster but is not entered in any individual events. Ruck has not swum since NCAAs and is recovering from a broken hand but she does have a personal best of 52.72. McIntosh seems unlikely as the 400 IM is the next day, but is certainly a possibility.

Marrit Steenbergen courtesy World Aquatics

The 2015 and 2017 silver medalists, the Netherlands, are known for their female sprinting prowess like Canada. Part of both of those medal-winning relays were Ranomi Kromowidjojo and Femke Heemskerk, who have both since retired. Taking up the mantle of Dutch sprinting is the multi-talented Marrit Steenbergen, who swam in the prelims of the 2015 relay (55.29) as well as anchoring last year’s 5th place team (52.57/3:24.24).

Like the Canadians, the Dutch only have one entrant in the women’s 100 free, so they’ll need to look elsewhere for their other female leg. Last year, Tessa Giele split 54.58 but did not make this year’s roster. The spot most likely will fall to Kim Busch, who has a season-best of 54.33.

While there is at least one entrant in the women’s 100, the men have zero. Last year’s relay swimmers, Stan Pijnenburg (48.80) and Jesse Puts (48.29) have been recovering from injuries and are not on the team. The Dutch most likely will use Thom de Boer and Kenzo Simons, their entrants in the 50 free. They have best times of 49.42 and 49.40, respectively, but de Boer has not swum the event individually this season. Another option could be to use butterflier Nyls Korstanje in the relay, who has a personal best of 48.86, but like de Boer has not swum it individually this season.

Split Comparison: Canada vs Netherlands

* Her time from the 2022 Canadian Trials 

While the cumulative times of their flat starts will obviously be slower than their times from last year, both being over two full seconds slower is cause for concern. Especially because there is a crowded field behind them who are looking to move up.

The Lion, The Dragon, and The Rooster

Foremost among these teams is China, who finished 8th last year. While the Australians and the Americans are the only two nations that can claim 2 swimmers in each of the women’s and men’s top 10, China has two men in the top 15 and three women in the top 25. Leading China with this fastest men’s 100 free of this season is Pan Zhanle, whose 47.22 marked a new Asian record. 15th in the rankings is Wang Haoyou, whose 47.89 from the Chinese Spring Championships was a best time by over a second.

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Leading the Chinese women at #11 in the world rankings is Cheng Yujie, who has a time of 53.26 from the 2023 Chinese Nationals. Most likely joining her on this relay is Yang Junxuan, whose season best is 53.87. One spot behind her in the world rankings is Zhang Yufei, who swam a season-best of 53.95 in May at her Nationals.

Slightly behind China but certainly in the hunt for a minor medal are France and Great Britain. Despite being the 2019 bronze medalist in this event, France DNSed the event last summer whereas Great Britain did not enter a relay in 2019 but finished 4th last year.

Both teams have strong sprinting depth, and each has at least two swimmers in the top 25 of the 100 for both genders, but both lack the top-end speed that the Australian and Canadian women have demonstrated in the past. The British women currently rank 15th and 17th in the world while the French rank 19th and 22nd. The men fare a little better, with the Brits ranked 6th and 20th and the French 4th and 23rd.

Split Comparison: China vs GBR vs France

As previously mentioned with both individual 100 free events and the 4×100 free relays occurring earlier in the week, coaches could swap out swimmers based on their form. Duncan Scott could be one as he was originally the 2nd entrant for the 100 free for Great Britain but dropped it after the British team was announced. For France, Charlotte Bonnet could be swapped in. Despite setting national records in the breaststrokes, she won silver in the 100 free at the 2022 European Championships (53.62) as well as being a member of the gold medal-winning mixed 4×100 free relay team (3:22.80).

Seeking a Swimmer to Win a Medal

A trio of countries are missing one or two crucial pieces. Both Brazil and Italy have the male sprinters to put a strong front half but lack the speed necessary on the end. Sweden is in the opposite boat, their strength lies in their female sprinters.

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

In 2022, Brazil placed 6th in a time of 3:24.78, one spot ahead of Italy’s 3:25.83. Unlike the Italians, who this season have no swimmers under 48, Brazil has two. Gui Caribe ranks 10th in the world with a time of 47.82 and Marcelo Chierighini is tied for 12th with a time of 47.86. That is not to say Italy is without weapons, ahead of both of them in entry lists is Alessandro Miressi who entered with a time of 47.60 from the 2022 European Championships. Joining Miressi in the 100 free is Manuel Frigo, who despite having an entry time of 48.50, split 47.26 in the men’s 4×100 free relay last August at the European Championships.

While Brazil and Italy both don’t have any female swimmers in the top 25 rankings, Stephanie Balduccini is the 13th seed in the 100 free with a time of 54.10 back from the 2022 Championships. The highest-seeded Italian is Sofia Morini with an entry time of 54.76. Both are the only entrants for their nations and thus will need to look elsewhere for a teammate.

Sweden, also only has one entrant, Michelle Coleman (54.26), but has a supreme kicker in the world record holder Sarah Sjostrom. As previously reported, Sjostrom dropped the 100 free from her schedule, maybe opening it up to focus more on relays. For the men, Sweden will most likely call upon Cal products Bjorn Seeliger and Robin Hanson.

Split Comparison: Brazil vs Italy vs Sweden

While we know that the Italian men should be faster than their season-best times, the team’s cumulative time is less than three-tenths slower than their time in last year’s final. Last year Italy opened with Lorenzo Zazzeri in 48.69, which is right where Frigo is this year. Tarantino split 55.45 last summer and has since posted 54.40 at the 2023 Italian Championships.

Sarah Sjostrom (photo: Jack Spitser)

Like the Italians, Brazil’s cumulative time is less than three-tenths from their South American record time of 3:24.78 (from the 2022 meet), meaning with relay starts they could be considerably faster.

The massive variable amongst these three is Sweden. They finished 10th in this event last year with two 55-second splits from the two female swimmers. If they hope to make the final this year, Sjostrom may have to swim in the prelims despite the 50 fly final and semis of the 50 free occurring that night or they could gamble to see if Louise Hansson can replicate her 53.72 split from the bronze medal-winning team from the 2022 European Championships (3:23.40).

Notes on the Picks

In an individual preview one balances 8-12 swimmers to determine a likely final. In a relay, that number quadruples so between 36- 48 swimmers are in play. When it’s a mixed relay that means two separate coaching staffs and two separate schedules to have to manage and when it is a non-Olympic event, meaning that no qualification for the 2024 Games is available, then it is a real toss-up as to what nations will prioritize this.

One, ie the author, is not attempting to use this disclaimer as a shield from the commenters, but rather as a warning to your Pick’ems. China, on paper, could easily contest for a medal, but in their 8th-place finish, last year did not use a single individual entrant from the 100 free. The same occurred in 2019 when their relay finished just 15th.

Note: the mixed free relay was not listed in Pan Zhanle’s schedule (the male relays were), which indicates that China won’t use him on this relay. That seems to further elevate the chances they don’t use any of their top options.

Sweden, as well, is questionable. Sjostrom swam the prelims for the relay in Rome for the 2022 Euros, but the schedule had much less overlap than this one does, and since it was a less populated event the team’s time of 3:28.39 easily qualified for the final, whereas that time would have earned them the same 10th position that their team finished in at the 2022 World Champs.

While the picks below represent a highly likely order of finish, if China punts on the relay they could be out of the final. If Sweden uses Sjostrom they could be in. If Ruck is in good form, Canada could easily move up a few spots, but if she doesn’t swim it, then they could miss the final. Teams like Poland, Hungary, or New Zealand (to name a few) could easily slip in should several of the aforementioned teams not make a concerted effort in the event.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Japan– With two top 16 seeded swimmers in the form of Katsuhiro Matsumoto (12th in the men’s 100, 47.77) and Rikako Ikee (12th in the women’s 100, 54.12) the host nation could find itself with an outside chance of making the final. They enter with a seed time of 3:36.67 from the 2022 Junior Worlds and should easily surpass that, but making the final may depend on if Ikee swims prelims (like Sjostrom, Ikee could run into conflicts with the 50 fly and 50 free). Adding up the times from the 2023 Japan Swim, the four likeliest swimmers have a cumulative time of 3:25.08, which could put them right in the thick of it.