2024 Olympic Previews: Caeleb Dressel and the 49-Hopefuls in the Men’s 100 Butterfly

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
• Initial Entry Lists
• SwimSwam Preview Index

BY THE NUMBERS — MEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY

• World Record: 49.45 — Caeleb Dressel, United States (2021)
• World Junior Record: 50.62 —  Kristof Milak, Hungary (2017)
• Olympic Record: 49.45 — Caeleb Dressel, United States (2021)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Caeleb Dressel, United States, 49.45

In 2009, Michael Phelps and Milorad Cavic blew the minds of the global swimming community when they broke the 50-second barrier, posting times of 49.82 and 49.95, respectively, at the 2009 World Championships in Rome. These records were somewhat overshadowed by the fact that both men wore full body “super-suits” made largely of polyurethane, greatly increasing buoyancy–you know all this, so no point deliberating.

In 2017, Caeleb Dressel became just the third man to break the 50-second barrier, posting a magnificent 49.86 at the 2017 World Championships in Budapest. Two summers later, Dressel did it again, and then some, by shattering Phelps’ 2009 World Record with a 49.50 at the 2019 World Championships in Gwangju in the semifinals. Later, in the finals, Dressel posted a 49.66, easily winning.

In 2021 at the Tokyo Olympics, Dressel lowered his own World Record by posting a 49.45 to win the Olympic gold. What’s more, Hungary’s Kristof Milak nearly chased Dressel down on the final 50, posting a magnificent 49.68 to become the second-fastest man of all time and the fourth man in history to break 50 seconds.

To this day, only Dressel, Milak, Phelps, and Cavic have broken 50 seconds in the 100 LCM butterfly from a flat start, with only Dressel and Milak having done so in a textile jammer. In Paris, it seems likely that one or more men will join the 49-second club. In fact, the field is so competitive that it might take a 49 to make the podium.

How Are the Medalists from Tokyo 2020 Doing in 2024?

Caeleb Dressel (photo: Jack Spitser)

Let’s start with the defending Olympic Champion, Caeleb Dressel. Dressel’s time away from the pool in 2021 and 2022 is well documented. While he hasn’t displayed the overwhelming dominance that he showed in 2021, Dressel is starting to look like his old self again. In Paris, Dressel will swim only two individual events, not three like he did in Tokyo. Dressel’s toughest double will come on August 2nd where he will swim both the Prelims and Semifinals of the 100 fly, as well as the finals of the 50 freestyle. In Indianapolis he pulled it off, winning both events in relatively comfortable margins, though not in the same fashion as 2021, where he equaled his American Record in the 50 (21.04) and set the U.S. Open Record in the 100 fly in semifinals (49.76), though he backed it up with 49.87 in finals to win by over a second.

This 100 fly was the first race where Dressel appeared to be “back” and has continued to be the one where he has looked best throughout his comeback.

This time around, Dressel fired off a 50.19 to win the 100 fly, good for the third-fastest time in the World this year. Dressel tends to swim better at the big meets than he does the team trials, so seeing another 49 is definitely a possibility, though Dressel himself has stated that he does not know if he will ever go a best time again (perhaps he should contest backstroke, his one “weakness”). Dressel’s World Record is so fast it might not require a best time to win gold, though with at least three other men knocking on the door of 49, not to mention one other who is the second-fastest in history (Milak), Dressel’s path to victory is as competitive as it can be in the 100 fly.

Kristof Milak courtesy Simone Castrovillari/LEN

Hungarian Kristof Milak set the world on fire in 2019 when he broke Michael Phelps‘ 2009 World Record in the 200 butterfly, posting an otherworldly 1:50.73 in Gwangju. While Milak failed to break his own World Record in the 200 at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, he posted a shocking 49.68 in the 100 fly, nearly chasing down Dressel. Following Dressel’s abdication from the 2022 World Championships, Milak was the heavy favorite to win the race, which he did in a 50.14, equaling his semifinals time, in front of a home crowd in Budapest. At the same World Championships, Milak lowered his own World Record in the 200 fly, posting a 1:50.34, hitting the 100-meter turn in a sickening 51.89. Milak had a similarly outstanding 2022 European Championships. Though his butterfly times were not as dominant as in Budapest (though he did post a 50.33 in the 100 fly), he leveled up in freestyle, posting an impressive 47.47 in the 100 free, taking 2nd to only David Popovici who broke the World Record with a 46.86.

While 2021 and 2022 represent the peak of Milak’s career thus far, 2023 saw Milak take an extended break from training to focus on his mental health. Milak reportedly missed 32 out of 38 workouts following the 2024 Hungarian Championships in April. Nonetheless, Milak posted a 50.75 at the Monaco stop of the 2024 Mare Nostrum Tour in June. At the same competition, Milak swam a 1:53.94 in the 200 fly, ranking him 2nd in the world behind Japan’s Tomoru Honda (1:53.15). Like Dressel, Milak is not displaying the same level of dominance ahead of the 2024 Olympic Games that he did prior the 2020 Olympic Games, though by the merit of his swims earlier this season, including a gold in the recent European championships (50.82), he is once again a medal threat in the 100 fly in Paris.

Noe Ponti courtesy of Len European Aquatics

Switzerland’s Noe Ponti from blasted a 50.16 in April a the 2024 Swiss Championships, ranking him #2 in the world going into Paris as well as the 6th-fastest performer all-time at the time, though is now ranked 7th due to Liendo’s incredible performance at the Canadian Olympic Tirals. Ponti placed 3rd in the 100 butterfly in Tokyo in a 50.74, a Swiss National Record at the time. Ponti is also showing strong in the 200 fly having gone a 1:54.59 in April, alongside a world-leading 22.65, making him the 6th-fastest performer all-time. The field of 50-lows has deepened since 2021, and it’s likely one or more of the men who have since surpassed 50.40, the long-standing litmus test for super-elite 100 butterflyers, established by American Ian Crocker at the 2005 World Championships in a textile suit that was not surpassed until the polyurethane super-suit era of 2008 and 2009, will be wholly surpassed by the medalists in Paris. Notably, Crocker remains the 9th-fastest performer all-time, tied with compatriot Shaine Casas. Of the top-10 performers all-time, six will be competing in Paris this summer in Paris. Tokyo 2020 was the first Games that required swimmers to be sub-51 to make the podium. Could Paris 2024 be the first that requires swimmers to be sub-50 to make the podium? Seems like a long shot, but if there were ever a time for it, its 2024.

Knocking on the Door of 49

Josh Liendo (photo: Jack Spitser)

Canada’s Josh Liendo leads the world rankings in the 100 fly in 2024 with a 50.06 set at the Canadian Trials in May. Over the previous two NCAA seasons, Liendo has made serious threats at fellow Florida Gator Caeleb Dressel‘s NCAA and US Open Records in the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 fly, all swum in the short course yards (25 yard) venue. At the 2024 NCAA Championships, Liendo posted a 43.07 in the 100 yard fly, making him the 2nd-fastest man in history behind only Dressel, who posted the all-around record 2018 in a scorchin 42.80. For what it’s worth, Liendo eclipsed Dressel on the first 50, splitting a 19.90 on the first 50, making him the fastest man in history from a flat start in the 50 yard butterfly and only the second to break 20 without a swing–Dressel, for reference, took the race out in a 19.99 in 2018, making him the first man ever to go sub-20 from a flat start in the 50 fly. Liendo is great in short course, though his 50.06 at Canadian Trials is no fluke. Liendo is a Tokyo 2020 Olympian, having finished 11th in the seminifinals. Fastforward to 2022 and Liendo is winning bronze at the 2022 World Championships in Budapest. In 2023 in Fukuoka, he won silver in a blistering 50.34.

Liendo, like Dressel six years prior, won NCAA titles in the 50 free (18.07, 3rd-fastest in history), the 100 free (40.20, 2nd-fastest in history), and the 100 fly (43.07, 2nd-fastest in history). Coached by 1988 100 butterfly Olympic Champion Anthony Nesty, and a training partner of Caeleb Dressel, Liendo is ready to ascend to the top of the podium, if he can get past fellow Gator Dressel. Thankfully, both men have Anthony Nesty in their corner, making for one heck of a trio.

Maxime Grousset, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

2023 World Champion Maxime Grousset asserted himself as a contender for Olympic gold at the 2023 World Aquatics Championships, posting a 50.14, which currently ranks him as the 6th-fastest man of all-time. In doing so, Grousset erased the former French National Record, set by himself at the French Elite Championships in a 50.61. Prior that that, the record belonged to Mehdy Metella, set in 2019 in 50.85. What’s interesting is that both Grousset and Metella are from far-flung French territories, with Metella hailing from French Guyana in South America, while Grousset is from New Caledonia, located in the South Pacific between Queensland, Australia and Fiji.

Australia’s Matt Temple posted a shocking 50.45 in 2021 in lead-up to the Tokyo Olympics, though at the big dance, Temple failed to win a medal, instead finishing in a dead-heat for 5th-place, tying with Poland’s Jakub Majerski, who set a new Polish Record in the process. Temple narrowly missed the podium again at the 2023 World Championships, posting a 50.81, though had he equaled his then-best time (50.45) he would have found himself with a bronze medal, 0.01 ahead of American Dare Rose. That is all history.

At the 2023 Japan Open in December, Temple blasted a 50.25 to take the lead in the World Standings, setting new Australian and Oceanic Records in the process. About a month later, Temple posted a 50.60 at the 2024 South Australian State Championships, which would serve as his seed time for the 2024 Australian Olympic Trials. At Aussie Trials, Temple put up a respectable 51.15 to punch his ticket to Paris. Temple has what it takes to pose a serious threat to win a medal in Paris, and perhaps even break through and clock a 49. So far, only men from the Americas, the United States, specifically, and Europe, including Hungary and Serbia, have ever broken 50 seconds in the 100 fly. Perhaps Temple will add a third content to the list of regions with a performer under 50 seconds in the 100 butterfly.

A Few More 50-Points

Hubert Kos (photo: Jack Spitser)

Hungarian Hubert Kos posted an impressive 50.84 at the TYR Pro Swim in Austin in April, tying Caeleb Dressel in the process. Kos is better known as a backstroker, being the 2023 World Champion in the 200 backstroke and the second-fastest performer ever in the short course yards version of the race, having briefly held the NCAA and US Open Records in the interim between the 2024 PAC 12 Championships and the 2024 NCAA Championships. Kos is one of two Hungarians in the field, seeded 9th and only 0.09 behind fellow countryman Kristof Milak., the 2020 silver medalist and second-fastest performer all-time behind only Dressel.

Dutchman Nyles Korstanje enters the meet with a season best time of 50.90, though a seed time of 50.78 from the 2023 World Championships. Korstanje placed 11th at the 2020 Olympic Games in a 51.54, though having now gone sub-51 on more than one occasion, and having made the championship final in the 2022, 2023, and 2024 World Championships, Korstanje could snag a lane in the championship final in Paris as well.

Katsuhiro Matsumoto became just the second Japanese man to break the 51-second barrier in the 100 fly last April at the 2023 Japan swim, posting a 50.96, denying Japanese National Record holder Naoki Mizunuma the gold medal, though both men will swim the event in Paris with seed times of 50.96 and 51.23, respectively, holding down the 10th- and 20th-seeds, respectively. Mizunuma’s first Japanese National Record in the 100 fly was set in 2022 in a 50.86. At the 2023 World Championships, Mizunuma lowered the record again with a 50.81. In the final Mizunuma posted a 50.94, good for second behind Hungary’s Milak.

Poland’s Jakub Majerski and Israel’s Gal Cohen Groumi come in tied for the 11th-seed with a 50.98; Majerski’s time being done at the 2024 LEN Championships while Groumi’s time is older from the 2023 World Championships. Majerski narrowly missed the podium at the 2020 Olympic Games, posting a 50.92 to tie for 5th. With 12 swimmers seeded under the 51-second barrier, it seems almost certain it will take an equally impressive performance in the semifinals to get a lane in the championship final.

Young Guns

Thomas Heilmann (photo: Jack Spitser)

It wasn’t exactly a shock when 17-year-old Thomas Heilman made the US Olympic Team at Trials in Indianapolis, though his 50.80 performance in finals turned heads as he shaved a full 0.30 from the 17-18 NAG Record set by none other than Michael Phelps in 2003. Heilman has been a teenage phenom for years, and following his 4th-place finish in the 200 fly (1:53.82) at the 2023 World Championships, tying with Canadian teenager Ilya Kharun, Hielman has a world-class second 50 that could propel him to a spot in the final of the 100 fly in Paris. Of note, Hielman tied for 16th in the prelims of the 100 fly in Fukuoka and participated in a swim-off for a spot in the semifinals. Though Heilman did not win the swim-off against Great Britain’s JTT Peters, the level of pressure he has experienced–not to mention making it through the gauntlet that is the US Olympic Trials–gives Heilman valuable experience under pressure on the international stage. Whether he finds himself on the podium or not, he could accomplish yet another milestone by breaking Kristof Milak‘s World Junior Record in the 100 fly. Milak’s time of 50.62, set at the 2017 World Championships, is just 0.18 ahead of Heilman’s best time from U.S. Trials in June.

Canada’s Ilya Kharun, the 19-year-old 2024 NCAA Champion in the 200 butterfly, enters the Paris Games with a 51.02 seed time, the 14th-fastest in the world this year and the 12th-fastest among those expected to compete in the City of Light. Kharun, though better known as a 200 butterflyer, especially after tying for 4th at the 2023 World Championships with American Thomas Heilman (1:53.82), will, like Heilman, rely on his strong finish to earn him a spot in the final. While a medal in the 100 fly seems like a stretch for the young Canadian, there is a high probability that 4 of the 8 finalists in the 100 fly in Paris will be from North America (the others being Dressel, Liendo, and Heilman).

19-year-old Diogo Ribeiro of Portugal is the 2024 World Champion in the 100 fly after putting up a 51.17 in Doha. Ribeiro also topped the podium in the 50 fly, posting a 22.97 to get the better of sprint veterans including Michael Andrew (23.07) and Cameron McEvoy (23.08). Ribeiro is on the verge of breaking the 51-second barrier, which is the least it will take to make the final in Paris. Unlike Heilman and Kharun, Ribeiro will take the race out fast, easily under 24-seconds if he’s on form. Whether he can muster a strong enough second 50 to remain in contention with the best of the best will determine his likelihood of swimming in the Olympic final.

Kaii Winkler, who placed 5th at U.S. Olympic Trials, will now represent Germany in Paris at the 2024 Olympic Games. Winkler, who’s career thus far has been similar to Dressel’s–a young Florida phenom who burst onto the scene in freestyle but seems he might be better at butterfly–will likely need to level up again to get a second swim, though his tremendous drops in time over the past year elude to this potential.

The Veterans

South Africa’s Chad le Clos, the 2012 and 2016 silver medalist in the 100 fly, as well as Great Britain’s James Guy, will contest the 100 fly in Paris. Guy is seeded 22nd with a 51.43 from the 2023 World Championships, while le Clos is seeded 25th with a 51.48 from the 2024 World Championships in Doha. It would take a big swim for either man to make the final, though as two of the most experienced swimmers in the field, the deserve our consideration.

SwimSwam’s Top-8 Picks

With such a deep and experienced field, complimented by the rise of incredibly promising up-and-comers, predicting the podium for the men’s 100 butterfly in Paris was difficult. The clash between the veterans and previous champions versus the momentum of breakout stars makes the men’s 100 butterfly one of the most exciting events to watch this summer.

Dark Horse

China’s Wang Changhao is now the second-fastest swimmer in Chinese history in the 100 butterfly, behind only Li Zhuhao, who clocked the current Chinese National Record in 2017 with a 50.96. Wang has speed, having also broken the Chinese National Record in the 50 butterfly with a 23.25 in 2023. Furthermore, Wang was a member of the National-Record-Setting men’s 4 x 100 medley relay at the 2023 Asian Games, splitting a 50.68. Based on the entry list and the phenomenal times witnessed over the past quad, Wang will need to at least equal this from a flat-start to make the final.

Something worth considering is China’s formidable stance in the 4 x 100 medley relay in Paris. There is perhaps no better motivation to perform at a high level than to bolster a nation’s relay, especially if it mean’s upsetting a team that has never lost the race. Team USA are the stalwart favorites–the American men have never lost this race at the Olympics–though Italy, Great Britain, and China in particular could make things interesting. China boasts Xu Jaiyu, the 4th-fastest performer all-time in the 100 backstroke (51.86; 2017); Qin Haiyang (57.69; 2023), the 2nd-fastest performer all-tim and 2023 World Champion in the 50, 100, and 200 breaststroke, and the World Record holder in the 200 breaststroke (2:05.48; 2023); as well as Pan Zhanle, the World Record holder in the 100 freestyle (46.80; 2024).