2024 Olympics Previews: It Will Be Milak Vs. Marchand In The Men’s 200 Fly

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
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BY THE NUMBERS — MEN’S 200 BUTTERFLY

• World Record: 1:50.34 — Kristof Mliak, Hungary (2022)
• World Junior Record: 1:53.39 — Kristof Milak, Hungary (2017)
• Olympic Record: 1:51.25 — Kristof Milak, Hungary (2021)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Kristof Milak, Hungary — 1:51.25

Kristof Milak (photo: Jack Spitser)

From 2019 to 2022, the men’s 200 fly was Kristof Milak‘s event. The Hungarian ascended from a junior phenom to the fastest in history, first breaking Michael Phelps‘ ten-year old world record in 2019 and then again breaking his own in 2022 — becoming the first swimmer to ever go under 1:51 in the 200 fly. Between those years, he dominated at the Tokyo Olympics to win his first Olympic gold medal.

After being anointed by SwimSwam in early 2023 as the top male swimmer in the world, Milak’s career took a hit. He pulled out of the 2023 World Championships because he “hit rock bottom,” and didn’t race at a meet from April 2023 to 2024 (he entered and withdrew from the World Cup stop meets in fall 2023). In addition, there were concerns from both Hungarian national team coach Csaba Sos and Hungarian media about Milak’s inconsistent training schedule — though nothing has been confirmed by Milak or his personal head coach Balasz Virth.

See Also:

• Hungarian coach worried about Kristof Milak: ‘He hasn’t done any meaningful work in months’ 
• Reports: Kristof Milak has missed 32 of 38 workouts since the Hungarian Championships

Since his comeback, Milak has posted a season-best time of 1:53.94, ranking second in the world behind Japan’s Tomoru Honda (who we will get to later). That’s over three seconds off his best time, but it indicates that he’s still in medal-worthy shape even after a year away from swimming. He also won gold in both the 100 and 200 fly at the 2024 European Championships this June.

Now, the biggest question with Milak is whether he will merely be in medalling shape, or if he will return to his old throne in the 200 fly. He has wiggle room — he’s been over two seconds faster than anyone else has this Olympic cycle and has outperformed Leon Marchand, the second-fastest man in the world, three times since the Tokyo Olympics. However, we also have to see his speed to believe he still has it, and so far we haven’t.

The Challengers To The Throne

Leon Marchand (photo: Fabio Cetti)

In Milak’s absence, France’s Marchand won the 2023 World title comfortably, posting a time of 1:52.43. That time makes him the third-fastest swimmer in history behind Phelps and Milak, and the second-fastest swimmer of this Olympic cycle. Without a major halt, he’s still on the ascent of his career, which is expected to hit one of its peaks at a home Paris Olympics. So despite being considerably slower than Milak’s best, he has the momentum right now.

Notably, the 200 fly final will be just under two hours before the 200 breast final, which Marchand is also expected to swim and be a contender in. How much energy he will exert in this 200 fly to avoid burning out in the 200 breast final could determine the outcome of this race, especially if it gets close between him and Milak.

This year, Marchand has been as fast as 1:54.08, clocking that time at French trials.

The other potential upset pick is Japan’s Tomoru Honda, who set a personal best of 1:52.70 in December 2022 and is one of the three swimmers of this Olympic cycle to break 1:53 in the event. Honda has performed consistently and up to expectation at most past international meets — he won silver at the Tokyo Olympics, bronze at the 2022 Worlds, and gold at 2024 Worlds in a Milak and Marchand-less meet. His only disappointment was at the 2023 Worlds, where he entered as a potential favorite swimming in his home country, but then added nearly a second to “only” take third.

Honda is the fastest swimmer of the 2023-24 long course season with his time of 1:53.15 from the Asian games last fall.

Having dropped over three seconds in three years, Marchand has a higher upside than Honda and seems more likely to upset Milak by just dropping time alone. However, Honda feels like a safer podium choice, given his consistency and the fact that he’s not dealing with the pressure of a double or a home Olympics. If the top two seeds falter, he will be right there.

Honda did have a sprained ankle earlier this year, so we don’t know how much that will impact him.

Rising Stars

The men’s 200 fly is also an event of rising stars: specifically the United States’ Thomas Heilman, Poland’s Krzysztof Chmielewski, and Canada’s Ilya Kharun.

Chmielewski is the 2023 Worlds silver medalist. The rising USC sophomore dropped over a second in the event last year, clocking best a time of 1:53.62 to rank as the fourth overall seed. This Olympic cycle, he rose from being one of the top swimmers on the junior stage to the senior stage, winning gold at 2021 European Juniors and 2022 World Juniors before getting his first senior international medal a year later. He will most certainly improve from his eighth-place finish from the Tokyo Olympics, recorded when he was just 16 years old. This year, he’s been as fast as 1:54.78 to finish second at European Championships behind Milak, and ranks 14th in the world this year.

Thomas Heilmann (photo: Jack Spitser)

Then there’s Heilman, who is the youngest American male swimmer to qualify for an Olympic games since Michael Phelps in 2000. At just 16 years old, he tied for fourth place in the 200 fly at 2023 Worlds, clocking a time of 1:53.82. That time helped him become the fastest 18-and-under American swimmer of all-time, and puts him just within a few tenths of Milak’s world junior record. He won comfortably at Olympic trials with a time of 1:54.50, ranking seventh in the world for the 2023-24 long course season.

After exceeding expectations at his first-ever senior international meet, Heilman at 17 comes to Paris with both experience and a high ceiling, which bodes well for him to shock the world.

Kharun tied with Heilman at 2023 Worlds, and is just two years older than him at age 19. Since switching sporting nationalities from the United States to Canada in late 2022, Kharun has seem a meteoric rise in the 200 fly, improving from a time of 1:56.66 to 1:53.82 in just two years.  At Canadian trials he went 1:54.41 (just 0.08 seconds faster than Heilman), and said that he was motivated to beat his Arizona State teammate Marchand. He may still be far away from the Frenchman right now, but an upset isn’t out of the cards.

Other Potential Finalists

We just listed six different swimmers who we believe are locks to make the 200 fly final. However, this is an extremley deep field, where the seventh to 15th seed are separated by less than 0.7 seconds. And all of them will likely be fighting for just two spots in the final.

Richard Marton (photo: Fabio Cetti)

Hungary’s Richard Marton and Chinese Taipei’s Eddie Wang are both returning 2023 Worlds finalists, finishing in seventh and eighth respectively. The two swimmers are separated by 0.01 in terms of best time, with Wang going 1:54.53 at the Asian Games and Marton going 1:54.54 in the semifinals of 2023 Worlds (before he added half a second in the final). Wang looks to bounce back from the Tokyo Olympics, where he finished second in prelims and added over a second to place 13th in finals. Meanwhile, Marton, who trains together with Milak, will be making his individual Olympic debut as a finals contender.

Japan’s Genki Terakado emerged as a challenger this spring, posting a time of 1:54.07 to upset Honda at Japanese Olympic trials and qualify for his first-ever senior international meet. Prior to this year, he had never been under 1:56, and is now rising at an exponential rate. His 1:55.87 at Mare Nostrum indicates that he’s still on-form, but there are fair concerns about his inexperience and Japan’s history of overperforming at trials due to strict qualification standards just to add considerable time at summer international meets.

Italy’s Alberto Razzetti has been on the international scene for many years now. He’s a 2021 short course world and European champion in the 200 fly and has won long course European Championship medals in the 200 and 400 IM. This year, he finally won his first international long course medal in the 200 fly, going 1:54.65 at 2024 Worlds to finish second behind Honda. He broke 1:55 for the first time last year after just missing the final at 2023 Worlds by placing ninth, and is now set to swim this race at the Olympics for the first time.

However, the fastest Italian in the 200 fly is not Razzetti — it’s Giacomo Carini. Carini came just 0.06 seconds away from reigning Olympic bronze medalist Federico Burdisso‘s (who didn’t qualify for Paris) Italian record this June, clocking a time of 1:54.34 to head into Paris as the eighth seed. He’s risen over the past Olympic cycle, improving his best time from 1:55.33. He looks to improve upon his 15th place finish in the 200 fly in Tokyo and qualify for his first major international final.

Martin Espernberger (photo: Jack Spitser)

Finishing in third at 2024 Worlds was Austria’s Martin Espernberger. The Tennessee swimmer went a 1:55.16 at Worlds but has been as fast as fast as 1:54.69, a time he swam at the U.S. Open last summer to rank as the 14th overall seed. Another NCAA swimmer in this field is Poland’s Michal Chimielewski (brother of Krzystof), who is seeded right behind him with a time of 1:54.88 — also set at the U.S. Open.

The United States’ second representative in the 200 fly is Luca Urlando, who comes in as the 12th seed with a time of 1:54.64. He will be swimming in his first Olympic Games after spending almost a year out of the water due to a shoulder injury, and looks to improve upon his sixth place finish at 2022 Worlds. It seems unlikely that he’ll replicate the best time of 1:53.84 he set as a high school senior back in 2019, but anything is possible.

Switzerland’s Noe Ponti is the final contender that we’ll discuss. The reigning Olympic bronze medalist in the 100 fly will be more of a factor in shorter distance events, but he has baggage in the 200 fly as well — he’s seeded 12th with a time of 1:54.59 (clocked in April) and just missed the podium at 2022 Worlds, finishing fourth. He’s been as fast as 1:54.20 before and is certainly in the running to final.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Ultimatley, we still believe that Milak has what it takes to win given his past dominance, and the fact that we really haven’t seen him have a bad international meet yet. The 200 fly will be his main focus unlike Marchand, who will be preoccupied with so many other races. In addition, Milak has already been faster than Marchand this year. We have Kharun winning bronze, simply because he has the right mix of experience and youth and was so close last last (plus, it’s hard not to bet against Bob Bowman-trained 200 flyers).

Dark Horse: Matt Sates, South Africa — Sates has had somewhat of a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of career, and the hype that he had when he was a teenager has seemed to fizzle out. But what goes unnoticed is his improvement in the 200 fly. Since taking up the event seriously in 2023, he’s gone from a best time of 2:02.83 all the way to a 1:55.25. He’s now seeded 18th overall, and has the chance to make himself known again with a big swim.