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2024 W. NCAA Previews: Walsh’s World In 400 IM

2024 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

WOMEN’S 400 IM

  • U.S. Open Record: 3:54.60 – Ella Eastin, Stanford (2018)
  • American Record: 3:54.60 – Ella Eastin, Stanford (2018)
  • NCAA Record: 3:54.60 – Ella Eastin, Stanford (2018)
  • 2023 NCAA Champion: Alex Walsh, Virginia – 3:57.24

Ever since she fully embraced the event in her sophomore year at Virginia, Alex Walsh has dominated the 400 IM at the collegiate level.

Walsh didn’t race the event for two years, from November 2019 until November 2021, but immediately showed she has the best combination of versatility and endurance in the country, clocking 4:01.40 at the 2021 Tennessee Invitational before rolling to the 2022 NCAA title in a time of 3:57.25.

After beating reigning champion Brooke Forde by three seconds in 2022, Walsh successfully defended her title last season, topping teammate Ella Nelson by more than two seconds while chipping .01 off her lifetime best in 3:57.24.

Only five women have ever been faster than Walsh, and if Bella Sims (PB of 3:56.59) had opted to race the 400 IM at her first NCAAs, we’d have a race on our hands. But in her absence, this race projects to be all Walsh.

She leads the NCAA rankings this season with her time of 4:00.52 from UVA’s tri-meet with NC State and UNC in January, a time that only one swimmer, Nelson, has ever been faster than.

2023-24 NCAA Rankings, Women’s 400 IM (SCY)

  1. Alex Walsh, Virginia – 4:00.52
  2. Emma Weyant, Florida – 4:01.20
  3. Bella Sims, Florida – 4:01.47
  4. Caroline Bricker, Stanford – 4:02.32
  5. Lucy Bell, Stanford / Justina Kozan, USC – 4:03.25
  6. Zoe Dixon, Florida – 4:03.33
  7. Paige MacEachern, UCLA – 4:03.47
  8. Ella Nelson, Virginia – 4:03.61
  9. Megan Van Berkom, Minnesota – 4:04.36

In addition to her SCY prowess, Walsh swam the 400 IM in the long course pool for the first time in more than three years in 2023, qualifying for the World Championships and ultimately placing 4th in a best time of 4:34.46.

Behind Walsh, the battle for 2nd should be an exciting one, with Nelson and Emma Weyant the top candidates.

THE RUNNER-UP RACE — VETERANS

The only swimmer besides Walsh who has broken 4:00, UVA fifth-year Nelson has to be considered the favorite for 2nd despite sitting down in 8th on the psych sheets.

Nelson broke through at the 2023 ACC Championships, bringing her best time down from 4:02.11 to 3:59.33 to win the conference title for the third straight time. After going 3:59.54 to place 2nd at NCAAs, she made it a four-peat at ACCs this season in 4:03.80, coasting to the win by nearly six seconds.

Dating back to her NCAA Championship debut, Nelson has finished no lower than 3rd in the 400 IM (2022), with runner-up finishes coming in both 2021 and 2023.

Now 22, she’s proven she can perform when it matters most.

As a freshman at Virginia in 2022, Weyant—20 at the time and thus why she is regarded as this ‘veteran’ here—set a personal best time of 4:03.17 to place 4th at NCAAs, seven-tenths back of Nelson.

After transferring to Florida, Weyant lowered her PB down to 4:01.18 at the 2023 SEC Championships, but added at NCAAs and placed 3rd (4:03.50).

Last month she essentially matched her best time en route to a second straight SEC title, clocking 4:01.20 with near identical splits to her 2023 swim.

The question is whether or not she can time her taper right and drop at NCAAs, or if she’ll add a tad like she did last season. When it comes down to it, Nelson’s edge on Weyant in breaststroke is the big difference between them, and it will be on Weyant to stay close enough through the 300 to have room to run her down on free.

WEST COAST EXPRESS

The Pac-12 may be no more after this season, but in 2023-24, it is home to several of the country’s top female 400 IMers.

Swimmers from four different Pac-12 schools hold six spots inside the top 11 on the psych sheets, led by the Stanford duo of Caroline Bricker and Lucy Bell.

Bricker has been on an absolute tear during her freshman season, culminating with a personal best of 4:02.32 en route to the Pac-12 title after entering the campaign with a PB of 4:09.57. The 19-year-old has a 2:06.8 200 breast and 1:52.0 200 fly in her repertoire, and her improvement curve should give the rest of the field pause for concern.

Bell, a sophomore, set personal bests in both the prelims (4:06.05) and the final (4:05.56) at NCAAs last year to place 7th, and after accruing some international experience with a silver medal in the 400 IM at the Pan Ams in October, leveled up with a 4:03.25 swim at the Texas Invitational in November.

Similar to Bricker, Bell is elite in fly and breast, coming off a 1:52.62 PB in the 200 fly in a dual with USC in February. She then went 59-flat in the 100 breast against Cal two weeks later.

It’s worth noting Bell was well off her midseason time at Pac-12s, placing 7th with a pair of 4:09-high swims, but it’s more than likely she had little to no rest.

Following those two is USC sophomore Justina Kozan, who rebounded from a quiet freshman year with a seismic summer, sweeping the medley events at the LEN U23 European Championships in August. Her best time in the SCY 400 IM had been on the books for nearly four years when she went 4:03.25 at the Texas Invitational, tying Bell for the victory.

That swim from Kozan included a blistering closing 50 of 25.97, and if she has that in her back pocket at NCAAs, she’ll be hard to deny in any close battle.

UCLA junior Paige MacEachern has been steadily on the rise, finishing her freshman year with a PB of 4:10.19 and then clocking 4:06.17 last season at Pac-12s. She’s now coming off a big drop at the conference championships, touching in 4:03.47 to place 2nd to Bricker.

MacEachern is well-rounded and matched Bricker throughout the race, only falling shy of the victory due to Bricker’s closing speed.

Last season, MacEachern did add a few seconds from Pac-12s to NCAAs, so that’s something to note.

Other highly-seeded swimmers from the West Coast are Cal junior Lea Polonsky, who was 14th last season and has been as fast as 4:03.90 back in 2022, and UCLA sophomore Rosie Murphy, who swam to a PB of 4:06.00 at Pac-12s.

OTHER RETURNING ‘A’ FINALISTS

The two ‘A’ finalists from last season we’ve yet to mention are NC State’s Grace Sheble and Minnesota’s Megan Van Berkom.

Sheble clocked 4:04 in three consecutive swims from the ACC final to the NCAA final last season, placing 5th at nationals in 4:04.83.

She hasn’t been anywhere near that form this year, with her season-best sitting at 4:09.12 from the NC State Invite, situating her down in 24th on the psych sheets.

Van Berkom set her best time of 4:03.45 at the 2022 Big Tens, and after recording the second-fastest swim of her career at the Minnesota Invite in December (4:04.37), cruised to the conference title last month in 4:06.71.

Now a senior, she’s been consistent enough in her career that she’s a good bet to make the ‘A’ final.

YOUNG NAMES RISING

We’ve already mentioned a few of them in the Pac-12 section, but several other underclassmen have been on an upward trajectory in this event, threatening to upend the established names and make the championship final.

Florida sophomore Zoe Dixon leads the charge. As a freshman, she set a best time of 4:06.18 at SECs before going 4:06.92 in the NCAA consolation final—she would have had to been right on her PB to make the ‘A’ final.

The 19-year-old is coming off a big drop at SECs, staying with Weyant through the breaststroke leg before placing 2nd in 4:03.33.

If Dixon can hold form from SECs to NCAAs like last season, but be dialed in for the prelims, she’ll make the ‘A’ final. She’s among the best swimmers in the field on the front half with elite 200 fly (1:54.9) and 200 back (1:53.6) times.

Princeton freshmen Eleanor Sun and Dakota Tucker, Texas first-years Campbell Stoll and Angie Coe, and Cal freshman Kathryn Hazle are all in the hunt for a second swim, while sophomores Giulia Goerigk (Texas A&M) and Claire Tuggle (USC) are also seeded inside the top 16.

Among that group, the fastest this season is Sun, who set a best time of 4:06.07 at the Big Al Invite in December but fell to teammate Tucker, 4:07.32 to 4:10.27, at the Ivy League Championships.

SWIMSWAM PICKS

PLACE SWIMMER SCHOOL SEASON BEST LIFETIME BEST
1 Alex Walsh Virginia 4:00.52 3:57.24
2 Ella Nelson Virginia 4:03.61 3:59.33
3 Caroline Bricker Stanford 4:02.32 4:02.32
4 Emma Weyant Florida 4:01.20 4:01.18
5 Justina Kozan USC 4:03.25 4:03.25
6 Lucy Bell Stanford 4:03.25 4:03.25
7 Megan Van Berkom Minnesota 4:04.36 4:03.45
8 Zoe Dixon Florida 4:03.33 4:03.33

Dark Horse: Nicole Maier, Miami (OH) – Maier topped the ‘B’ final last season in a time of 4:05.84, but hasn’t been within three seconds of that in any other swims. The German senior was on fire at the Mid-American Conference Championships in the freestyle events, including hitting a PB in the 200 free (1:43.90) and nearing her lifetime best in the 500 free (4:40.30), but was only 4:09 in the 400 IM. The free events have always been her primary focus, but she’s proven to be capable of a monstrous finals-worthy swim in the medley event. Can it happen again?

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Danjohnrob
7 months ago

I don’t think the Walsh sisters get enough credit. It”s like they just sat down and Alex said, “Look, we are both awesome swimmers, but if we swim the same events we’ll have to compete against each other all the time, so I’ll take the IM’s, breast and 200 fly and you take the sprints, OK?”. Where in history do you see a precedent for 2 sisters competing in a sport and going into a national level competition ranked first in so many events? I guess the Williams sisters, but in tennis you don’t have event specialties. In swimming maybe the McKeown sisters in Australia? The Foster brothers were both successful at the NCAA’s, but not anywhere near this dominant!

aquajosh
Reply to  Danjohnrob
7 months ago

Eerily enough, two other Nashville sisters who were pretty prolific in swimming and followed each other to the same school. Amy and Tracy Caulkins. Amy was a sprinter and the elder of the two, and she went to UF and won NCAAs in the 100 free and 100 fly, and Tracy followed her to Florida and won just about everything, becoming the most decorated NCAA swimmer of all-time. When swimming in the shadow of the most prolific swimmer the world had ever seen had become too much, Amy took her talents to Water Polo and became a US National Teamer.

jeff
Reply to  aquajosh
7 months ago

The Caulkins also went to the same high school as the Walshs, Harpeth Hall School

Danjohnrob
Reply to  aquajosh
7 months ago

I did know that Tracy had a swimming sister, but I never heard that Amy had been an NCAA Champ. I love swimming trivia. Thanks!

23/51/1:52
7 months ago

I don’t think y’all seem to understand, swimming isn’t complete until Walsh and Weyant are on a podium together.

Yaboi
7 months ago

Putting 1 trillion dollars on Anna Freed from IU to smack the field

ACC fan
7 months ago

Don’t sleep on Emma!!

Aragon Son of Arathorne
7 months ago

sorry, but this is Alex’s race to lose. She also is going for that NCAA record and she is good enough to break it.

jeff
Reply to  Aragon Son of Arathorne
7 months ago

I think she can get close, Ella’s time is 1.11% faster than her 400 IM while Alex dropped like 0.65% and 0.97% in the 200 breast and fly from her PBs at ACCs. I’m predicting more of a 3:55 mid but I think could realistically be anywhere from 3:54 mid to 3:56 mid

Honest Observer
7 months ago

This article brings home what an incredible swim Eastin’s 3:54.6 was. Any sum-of-the-parts analysis would have Walsh solidly ahead of Eastin, but so far, Eastin’s PB is still over two seconds ahead. Walsh’s tremendous 200 fly and 200 breast at ACCs would certainly indicate she has a shot at the record this year, but it’s still going to take a near perfect swim.

Aragon Son of Arathorne
Reply to  Honest Observer
7 months ago

Agree, but Alex’s raw talent is just a step above Ella. Her undies, her stroke style, dps. Easton was just a beast that powered through her races. Walsh is a superstar

anonymous
Reply to  Honest Observer
7 months ago

I don’t know if I’d agree that a sum-of-the-parts analysis would put Walsh solidly ahead of Eastin. Eastin was:
1:49.51 Fly
1:48.53 Back
2:12.6 Breast (from 2014; her 1:06.5 split in her 3:54 suggests she could do much better)
1:41.0 relay split (2019 NCCAs)
+ 4:32.8 500

Her individual 200 breast (from high school) is the only thing where she seems clearly behind Walsh, but her 1:06.5 is still faster than Walsh has gone (as of yet) in a 4 IM. And alongside that, I’d argue Eastin seems solidly better in the free leg of a 4 IM, with the both of them routinely splitting 1:41-lows on relays but Eastin having 4:32 500 compared to… Read more »

Last edited 7 months ago by anonymous
aquajosh
7 months ago

Weyant’s situation last year was a little different. She had to taper fully for SECs to get her NCAA cuts because she didn’t swim the midseason meet and only started competing like two meets before conference. I think this year will be a lot different, and all the hallmarks she’s set (4:39 500 free in a dual meet, being right on her PBs in the 400 IM and 500 frees, a massive PB in the mile at conference) this season demonstrate that she’s in the shape of her life right now. She’s going to do a lot better than 4th.

Pescatarian
Reply to  aquajosh
7 months ago

Better than 4th but she gives up too much on the front half to Walsh to be competitive for the win.

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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