2024 Worlds Preview: Mixed Relays a Mixed Bag of Competiton or Scratches

2024 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• February 11th – February 18th (pool swimming)
• Doha, Qatar
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index

In the strangest World Championships in several generations, we will do our best to pick the medalists and finalists for the 2024 World Championships. It’s going to be weird and fun, all at the same time. Let’s dive in.

While certain events will be less competitive than others due to multiple absences, relays naturally will be affected fourfold. Typically, upon preparing for these reviews, one has multitudes of selection meet data to pour over, and there are obvious choices to help to make relay predictions.

With smaller roster sizes and multiple event holes on teams, all of these predictions are based solely on information that can be gleaned from published rosters and the entry sheets. I would expect there to be at least several relay scratches over the course of the championships.

What’s at stake: The Mixed 4×100 Free Relay is not an Olympic event, so the only things at stake are the medals. On the other hand, the Mixed 4×100 Medley Relay has Olympic qualification ramifications. By virtue of their medal-winning performances in Fukuoka, China, Australia, and the United States have qualified for the Paris Games. The remaining 13 spots will be filled by the fastest relay from these and last year’s World Champs.

4x100m Medley Relay – “Peaty’s Relay Return?”

BY THE NUMBERS —  Mixed 4×100 Medley Relay

• World Record: Great Britain- 3:37.73 (2021)
• World Junior Record: USA- 3:44.84 (2019)
• Championship Record: USA – 3:38.56 (2017)
• 2023 World Champion: China- 3:38.57

China, riding on the backs of epic performances from Qin Haiyang and Zhang Yufei, held on to victory in the Mixed Medley despite the Australians’ and Americans’ anchors out-splitting the Chinese by over a second. Of the 24 swimmers used by the top three nations (all the teams used different line-ups from prelims to finals), only Shayna Jack for Australia is returning to the World Champs.

With that said, there are going to be a lot of new faces or some unusual faces swimming off events, that is, if these countries decide to field a relay.

USA

With China’s roster not as strong, especially given the key absences of the middle two legs, Team USA, should they swim, be near favorites for the gold medal. They have a solid front half of experienced men in the form of Hunter Armstrong in the back and Michael Andrew and Nic Fink on the breaststroke. The front half rolls quite nicely into the pair of Claire Curzan and Kate Douglass. Curzan could do the backstroke and Casas the fly, but getting out to a strong start may be more paramount.

Australia

Lacking a strong male butterflier, the Australian relay is relatively straightforward, going with the traditional MMFF format. Bradley Woodward and Sam Williamson take on the first half, much like they are projected to do for the men’s medley relay. The women’s side will likely see Brianna Throssell/Alexandria Perkins, and Shayna Jack bring the Australians home.

Jack has had multiple sub-52 splits but will likely need some help to overcome the American advantage on the front half, as Woodward and Williamson would be (on paper) behind by close to three seconds.

China

At the 2023 Worlds, China put a backstroker in both the men’s and women’s 100 back, yet this meet China seems to be lacking an obvious backstroker. Chen Xin is entered in the 100 back with a time of 1:01.90, ranking just barely in the top 30 of women, and the men have no entries. While there are entries in the 50 back, guessing who they will go with will be difficult. With Pan Zhanle, the #3 seed in the 100 free, it looks pretty likely that should he swim, the Chinese will eschew the MMFF format they used to win gold in Fukuoka.

Netherlands

Lacking a strong male backstroker but having medal contender Arno Kamminga in the breast, will probably lead the Dutch squad to use the same format and perhaps the same line-up that they used in Fukuoka. Nyls Korstanje will likely swim the fly leg, and Marrit Steenbergen will take on anchor duties again. Backstroke duties will come down to Maaike de Waard and Kira Toussaint with the former taking the mixed medley duties in Fukuoka and the latter the women’s medley. Toussaint has the better personal best, but de Waard finished the best of the pair in the individual 100, 59.84 vs 59.89. The math makes the Dutch a strong contender for the Gold, but in Japan, de Waard was just 1:00.05 in the final, and Kamminga swam 59.00, with the relay finishing 4th in 3:41.81.

Great Britain

With no men’s or women’s medley and an Olympic gold to defend, Team GB may be using this relay as a practice run to see what line-up works best if they swim it. They have a wealth of backstrokers in Lauren Cox, Kathleen Dawson, Medi Harris, and Luke Greenbank. With no women’s breaststroker, that role must fall to Adam Peaty or James Wilby. Both genders are deficient in the 100 fly, with only 200 swimmers entered on the roster, so the fastest candidate may be Duncan Scott, who has a PB of 52.25.

Others to Watch

Should Sweden make the final, they could assemble a strong relay if they sort out their backstroke problems. Italy, too, could make some moves but would depend upon their female legs, and a 58.85 100-fly and 54.40 100-free aren’t quite up to snuff. Italy could forgo using Niccolo Martinenghi and swap in Benedetta Pilato but would still depend upon a slow freestyler to catch up to Jack and Douglass. Canada should make the final again but lacks a strong breaststroke leg and must play catch-up over the back half.

Disclaimer: There are too many moving parts to get any grasp on who will swim this relay. Any number of teams could make the final but may have to use their best swimmers to do so. With smaller rosters, resting swimmers and hoping to get by may not work for teams outside of the top three, or like those teams similar to the US which is lacking in one gender more than the other.

4x100m Free Relay – “Will they, Won’t they”

BY THE NUMBERS —  Mixed 4×100 Free Relay

• World Record: Australia – 3:18.83 (2023)
• World Junior Record: Australia – 3:24.28 (2023)
• Championship Record: Australia – 3:18.83 (2023)
• 2023 World Champion: Australia – 3:18.83 (2023)

It was an excellent year to be an Australian sprinter. The women’s 4×100 and 4×200 free relays won gold in WR fashion, and the men won gold in the 4×100 free. Together, the group won gold in the mixed 4×100 Free in a new World record, and the Australians repeated the accolade at World Juniors a few months later. Returning two legs from Fukuoka, the Australians are the likely heavy favorites but need to find two swimmers to fill in for Kyle Chalmers and Mollie O’Callghan.

But as a non-Olympic event and the minuscule chance of the World Record being broken let alone approached, I wonder how the top end teams will approach this event.

Australia

Shanya Jack and Jack Cartwright are locks to be on the relay should the relay swim. The second male and female swimmers will most likely fall to Brianna Throssell and Kai Taylor unless they wish to give the honor to other younger swimmers, like Alexandria Perkins, or perhaps they may see what Cameron McEvoy can do in 100.

USA

The fastest two legs for the men come in the form of Matt King and Shaine Casas, but should the US swim all their relays, Casas will have a busy schedule. Two swimmers with an even busier schedule are Claire Curzan and Kate Douglass. Both could easily throw down fast splits in the 100 free, but both are entered in six individual events and could easily not swim this event, especially considering they may be needed to swim in the prelims for the relay to final.

Canada

Often, Canada’s men have lagged behind their women on the relay side of things, but in this case, the women or rather their form may be the limiting factor. Javier Acevedo and Finlay Knox return to the Worlds Champs after filling the last two legs of Canada’s 4×100 men’s free relay. Taylor Ruck has a personal best that could count (at this meet) amongst the upper echelon but anchored the women’s 4×100 free last summer in 53.99. Their fourth leg likely falls to Sarah Fournier, Canada’s only entrant in the 100 free, but Katerine Savard or Rebecca Smith could fill in.

Italy

The Italians have a strong front half in any number of their sprinters, but fastest among them are Alessandro Miressi and Lorenzo Zazzeri, both with PBs sub-48. The Italian women, on the other hand are looking for someone to fill the shoes of Federica Pellegrini. Likely taking on the back-half relay duties are Costanza Cocconcelli, who was on the relay last year, and Chiara Tarantino, who is entered in the individual 100 with a seed time of 54.40.

China

China is just as much a question mark as the United States as to whether they will field a relay. They opted not to load the relay last year and missed the final. With a weaker squad this year, especially on the women’s side, they may miss or outright scratch. Li Bingjie appears to be the second fastest swimmer on the women’s side, but only by .02, so Yu Yiting may get the call-up.

Others to Watch

Sweden and the Netherlands can certainly make the final but lack the top-end men’s talent and will have to use Sarah Sjostrom and Marrit Steenbergen to play catch-up. Brazil dropped this relay so that eliminates one potential finalist.

Disclaimer: Most of the reasonings in putting the Aussies ahead of the Americans comes down to doubts as to if the US will field the relay, the other reasonings are that even if they were to field a relay, both Curzan and Douglass are fielding a heavy schedule. If China should enter a relay and if their best swimmers swim, they could contend for the gold but that’s a lot of ifs, and past history proves they tend to shy away from this non-Olympic relay.