It’s time to set up the last finals session of the 2012 Men’s NCAA Swimming Championship. First, here’s the data you’ll need:
Day 3 prelims recap.
Day 3 up/downs.
Top 14, as they stand coming into the final day:
1. Cal Berkeley 379.5
2. Texas 343.5
3. Arizona 283
4. Stanford 277
5. Michigan 199
6. Auburn 178.5
7. Florida 125
8. USC 119
9. Louisville 110
10. Indiana 102
11. Ohio St 92
12. Texas A&M 69
13. Georgia 62.5
14. Penn St 56
5 Big Questions
1. What would Texas have to do to come back? – Aside from a Cal DQ, this title is still within reach, though pretty far off, for the Longhorns. For starters, the Longhorns would need to huge performances from their divers on the platform – both in at least the top 4 – which is certainly possible. That would put them in a position where they’d just have to beat Cal in swimming points on the day to make up the 36-point deficit. Feigen winning the 100 free is a necessity. Caskey upsetting Shields in the 200 fly would go a long way too, as that would be a 6-point swing. The 200 back B-Final will be a huge swing, as Texas has three swimmers, but Cal will have the top seed. If all three of Texas’ can bump off Marcin Tarcznyski in that B-Final, it’s big points as well. And then Nick D’Innocenzo will have to find himself and defend his 200 breaststroke title from last year. That’s a lot of if’s, and even then Cal would have to have some poor swims. But this isn’t a lock (like the Cal women basically had on the final day). The mile could be a big equalizer too. Texas has at least four very good shots for individual National Championships on this last day, and they need to take three of those.
2. Who’s going to come off the last wall best in the 200 back? – Chitwood versus Nolan in this 200 back is going to be an outstanding race. They both have phenomenal walls on the last 50 of this 200 back (picture Shields, but there’s two of them). This race should be close going into the last two turns, and then look for a heavy-weight underwater battle, with at least 26 (out of a possible 30) yards of underwater swimming on the last 50.
3. Can Feigen Catch Morozov in the 100 free? – Momentum is going to play a huge role in this 100 free. If Feigen, sitting as the 6th seed, can get an emotional boost from Michael McBroom in the mile and Eric Friedland in the 200 breast before him, he might have enough. But he’s going to have to really rev his engine for the final – he was better leading off the 400 free relay in 42.66, but even that won’t be close to good enough to catch Morozov.
4. Does Shields have enough to get the NCAA Record in the 200 fly? – Not a single NCAA Record has gone down in this meet, but the best chance comes in this 200 fly tonight. The record of 1:40.31 already belongs to Shields. With how well he’s been swimming, one has to believe that he’s got a shot at it. The question is how much gas he has left. Compare it to a baseball pitcher – the total number of pitches thrown in a game is not as significant as having one or two innings where he has to throw 30 pitches. Similarly, Shields doesn’t have any more swims in this meet than many do, but the 2nd day where he had 7 races clearly took something out of him. He will try to muster one more burst of energy for this 200 fly – it will have to become obvious early in the race – to get there. I think the Cal coaches will tell him to go after it. By the time his other swim of the day, the 400 free relay, the team battle could be far enough out of contention that they won’t need Shields splitting the 42-low he’s capable of.
5. Will anybody defend a national title today? – There are three incumbent NCAA Championships racing today – Michael McBroom in the mile, Eric Friedland in the 200 breast, and Cory Chitwood in the 200 back. In the other two individual races, the defending runner-ups (after the winners graduated) are also racing – Feigen in the 100 free and Bobby Bollier in the 200 fly.
And none of them are the top seed going into tonight’s final, and it’s very possible that none of them will win. I don’t think Bollier is going to beat Shields, I don’t think McBroom is going to be able to stop Chad La Tourette. Friedland is the 8th seed and hasn’t swum his best in the meet thus far. If anyone is going to defend their incumbency, I think it’s going to be Chitwood.
Updated Projections
And just for good measure, let’s update the top 10 projections based on what we saw this morning:
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Arizona
5. Auburn
6. Michigan
7. USC
8. Florida
9. Louisville (will be within a few points of Florida)
10. Indiana (because of huge diving points).
Bon chance to all this evening. Tune in early to catch the men’s mile at 10 eastern, 7 pacific, as it should be one heck of a race – likely the best of the night.