2021 U.S. OLYMPIC SWIMMING TRIALS
- When:
- Wave I Dates: June 4-7, 2021
- Wave II Dates: June 13-20, 2021
- Prelims: 10am CDT | Finals: 7pm CDT
- Where: CHI Health Center / Omaha, Nebraska
- 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials Qualifying Cuts
- Wave I & II Event Order
- LCM (50m)
- Prelims Live Stream (NBC Olympics)
- Finals Live Stream (Olympic Channel)
- Psych Sheets
- Wave II Live Results
As you’d expect, swimming in the United States has gotten faster as a whole in the five years since the last Olympic Trials in 2016.
Looking specifically at the entry times that earn the #3 seed in each event on the program, 18 of 26 are faster in 2021 than they were in 2016 (excluding the men’s 800 free and women’s 1500 free, which will make their Olympic debut this year).
Highlighting how much faster things have gotten in certain events even more so is the fact that seven #3 seeds coming into the 2021 Trials have an entry time faster than it took to win the 2016 Trials, with six of those coming on the women’s side.
Data provided by SwimSwam’s Barry Revzin.
| Event | 2016 Winning Time | 2021 #3 Seed |
| Men’s 100 freestyle | 47.72 | 47.61 |
| Women’s 100 freestyle | 53.28 | 53.18 |
| Women’s 100 backstroke | 59.02 | 58.43 |
| Women’s 200 backstroke | 2:06.90 | 2:06.84 |
| Women’s 200 breaststroke | 2:24.08 | 2:21.84 |
| Women’s 200 butterfly | 2:06.80 | 2:06.59 |
| Women’s 200 IM | 2:09.54 | 2:08.84 |
Out of those seven, the most stark difference between 2016 winning times and this year’s seeds come in the women’s 100 back and women’s 200 breast. The winning time from the 2016 Trials would be seeded seventh in both events.
The men’s 100 breast was also close to joining the list, with the third-seeded time of 59.24 falling just shy of the 2016-winning 59.18.
You can check all of the #3 seeds from the last three Trials below:
| Women | Men | |||||
| 2012 | 2016 | 2021 | Event | 2021 | 2016 | 2012 |
| 24.86 | 24.62 | 24.44 | 50 Free | 21.62 | 21.55 | 22.03 |
| 53.94 | 53.59 | 53.18 | 100 Free | 47.61 | 48.74 | 48.49 |
| 1:56.47 | 1:56.23 | 1:56.09 | 200 Free | 1:46.21 | 1:47.10 | 1:46.45 |
| 4:05.50 | 4:04.55 | 4:04.60 | 400 Free | 3:47.95 | 3:46.09 | 3:47.98 |
| 8:25.85 | 8:24.69 | 8:26.04 | 800 Free | 7:50.14 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | N/A | 15:55.25 | 1500 Free | 14:59.94 | 14:56.17 | 15:01.31 |
| 59.65 | 59.41 | 58.43 | 100 Back | 52.75 | 52.57 | 53.05 |
| 2:07.82 | 2:08.33 | 2:06.84 | 200 Back | 1:55.79 | 1:56.29 | 1:57.26 |
| 1:07.17 | 1:06.16 | 1:06.38 | 100 Breast | 59.24 | 59.65 | 1:00.26 |
| 2:24.62 | 2:23.69 | 2:21.84 | 200 Breast | 2:08.16 | 2:08.89 | 2:09.72 |
| 58.05 | 57.82 | 57.06 | 100 Fly | 51.21 | 51.33 | 51.69 |
| 2:06.93 | 2:07.59 | 2:06.59 | 200 Fly | 1:55.77 | 1:55.09 | 1:56.06 |
| 2:10.02 | 2:10.35 | 2:08.84 | 200 IM | 1:57.59 | 1:58.43 | 1:58.64 |
| 4:37.88 | 4:35.46 | 4:36.06 | 400 IM | 4:11.46 | 4:12.43 | 4:12.51 |
I dont think this is an anomaly. People swim more slowly at trials than fans expect. Re: recent article about wave I.
Here’s my hot take (or is it a cold take??): 3rd place in 100 back will be 59.0 at best.
If someone wants to collect data to show the #3 2016 seed vs 2012 winning time and prove me wrong, please feel free. (Im really just trying to not get too excited…. Im already so over-hyped for next week)
Under the pressure of Olympic Trials, it’s not surprising that the winning time would not be that fast. I’m sure there will be many top 2 athletes at OT that will not win their place on the Olympic Team with a best time.
It’s gonna be a great one!
The evolution of depth in men’s 100 free is insane. 1.14 seconds faster.
Women’s backstrokes, 200 breast, and 200 IM are also insane in their progressions.
It may take under 59 to make the women’s 100 back final, I wonder what it will be in 2024?? Probably sub 58
That is a take.
And by 2048 it will take sub 53!
by 2100 we will be under 40!
Always wondered about that, will there ever come a time when you can’t get faster in, say, the 50 meter freestyle for example? Like, there has to be a limit right? You can’t swim 50 meters in 10 seconds, so will there ever be a 50 meter freestyle cap?
Probably already close haha. Record hasn’t been broken in 12 years. Dressel might shave a little off but it’s not gonna get much faster than 20.9. I hope I’m wrong though.