2011 TSC Men's Power Rankings: Little Shakeup at Top of Mid-Season Update

The second round of our NCAA men’s power rankings in the 2011 season were quite a challenge. I had a much more difficult time putting these together than I did the women’s, and the opinions I got in various discussions saw a huge range of variance.

Ultimately, I couldn’t find justification to change the top 5 in terms of order – but the biggest change came in what isn’t represented in the ranking. In my opinion, this top 5 has tightened up significantly. I still think Texas will win, but I’m not sure they will be as dominant as previously expected. Arizona has made a huge move on Stanford, and probably on the basis of just swimming alone they’re at least number two. USC has also pulled to nearly a dead-heat with Cal, with the edge going to Tom Shields and his versatility, as well as the Golden Bears’ depth.

The reason Texas and Stanford stayed numbers 1 and 2 (and for a lot of interesting rankings like Arizona State’s and Texas A&M’s) are divers. In Olympic years, top divers have a huge propensity for taking redshirts – much more than swimmers do. This year, specifically, there are going to be big-time scoring opportunities for teams that have chosen to invest in their diving programs. After a lot of senior graduations, and three of the top 6 in the country from last year (Boudia, McCrory, and Harrison) not diving this year for one reason or another, attrition alone turns a top-25 diver into a scorer.

Remember that these rankings are what we think will happen at NCAA’s, though they are obviously influenced by what the teams have done in season.

1. Texas Longhorns – Surprise Swimmer: Kerrington Hill (previously #1)

The Texas Longhorns didn’t do anything at their home Hall of Fame Invitational to lose the #1 spot in the power rankings, though on what appeared to be only a slight rest, they didn’t do much to lose it either. Jimmy Feigen lost to Vlad Morozov in both sprints, but Dax Hill reaffirmed that Texas has the best 1-2 sprint punch in the country with a 42.99 in the 100 free. Jackson Wilcox had a great mile swim, and as their best candidate in the 500 free, that increases great excitement of a Texas freestyle sweep at NCAA’s.

2. Stanford Cardinal – Suprise Swimmer: Aaron Wayne (previously #2)

Make no mistake – Stanford’s super-freshman class is performing extremely well. Several of them could very well make B-Finals at NCAA’s. But this season, we’re seeing the pitfalls of relying too much on a top freshman class – in men’s swimming, they just can’t impact, as a whole, like they can in women’s swimming. Individuals can (David Nolan), and though Nolan has been superb and will be a multiple-medal winner at NCAA’s, he’s just one. When you start going through events matching up one-to-one, you realize that Arizona and Texas seem to come out ahead more often than not. There have been some very promising signs, though, that this class could be dominant down the line. Stanford’s sprinters haven’t had much in the way of dropoff (they’re, at the least, still very deep), and David Mosko’s comeback seems to be going well. Diving should keep them at #2, but the gap has closed considerably.

3. Arizona Wildcats – Surprise Swimmer: Kelley Wyman (previously #3)

I struggled more with the 2-3 flip-flop than any other ranking in this top-20, and while the Wildcats showed a lot at the Texas Hall of Fame Invitational, Stanford holds on to #2 based on their elite diver. The Wildcats’ biggest advantage over Stanford is experience – they’re a hugely veteran team. They’ve got huge options for their medleys, and the advent of the freshman Cordes makes both of them front-runners for national titles. Rick Demont continues to work wonders on the sprint group – they have 4 swimmers who have flat-started sub-20 50 frees, another (Nick Popov) who relay-split a 19.00, and Adam Small yet to compete for the Wildcats this season. Wyman is seriously getting it done in Small’s absence, though, with huge sprint freestyle times. Hansen has now shown that he can get these guys to the right times; his next challenge will be showing that he can get them to the right times at the right meet – NCAA’s.

4. Cal Golden Bears – Surprise Swimmer: Nick Trowbridge (previously #4)

The Cal men, like their women, have been sort of scattered this year. The Cal relays aren’t that highly ranked because Tom Shields missed the first part of the Georgia Invitational, and then their closing 400 free relay was DQ’ed. Still, the young Cal freestylers have been stronger than the sum of their parts on relays, which is a big relief as that’s where so many of their NCAA points came from last year. A nice surprise is how well the Cal middle-to-distance group, that Dave Durden has been working so hard on, is coming together.

5. USC Trojans  – Surprise Swimmer: Alex Lendrum (previously #5)

With Jeff Daniels showing his older brother Josh’s same propensity for strong relay swims, the USC free relays are coming together very well. With Alex Lendrum swimming with a purpose, especially in the 100 where he’s already crushed his time from NCAA’s, the USC medley relays are coming together very well. It was tempting to bump them ahead of Cal after the Hall of Fame Invite, but it seems to me as though the Trojans will be without the depth of individual scoring to make that jump, especially without a diver.

6. Michigan Wolverines – Surprise Swimmer: John Wojciechowski (previously #7)

Most of the college swimming action is in the Southern and Western United States, but don’t sleep on the Big Ten squads either, as their huge sophomore class is making a rise. Michigan’s swimmers seemed to be at various stages of rest at the Hawkeye Invitational. Connor Jaeger had to have been pretty tapered to post a 4:15 in the 500 free, but Dan Madwed and Kyle Whitaker seemed more “rested” than “tapered”. Keep in mind that the Wolverines DQ’ed their A 400 medley relay in Iowa if you’re checking out rankings. They were also without All-American Sean Fletcher at the Invite, and he should be on 4 out of their 5 relays, so this ranking is predicated on a boost from his return. In his absence, Wojciechowski has stepped up to the tune of a 46.61 in the 100 fly. Not bad for a guy who didn’t make NCAA’s last year.

7. Auburn Tigers – Surprise Swimmer: James Disney-May (previously #6)

This Auburn team has not yet been mind-blowing, but they’ve been solid across a lot of different events. At the end of the day though, things come back to the sprint freestyles for them. Drew Modrov is having a great early season, and Marcelo Chierighini has already been sub-43 in the 100 free. The assumption is that Chierighini, the Brazilian, was not rested for the Georgia Invitational as the first leg of Brazilian Olympic Trials qualifying comes up this weekend. The Tigers have still been unable to find an elite breaststroker, and are still having to fill in with their best sprint freestyler (Chierighini) as a butterflier, just like they did last year. Their distance swimmer Zane Grothe has been very good, though.

8. Georgia Bulldogs – Surprise Swimmer: Nicolas Fink (previously #9)

Sans their two individual National Champions from last year, I can’t believe that I’m ticking Georgia up the rankings again, but here I am, doing it anyways. The reason is their relays. With Jared Markham and Nicolas Fink on board and swimming well, the Georgia relays will take a huge leap forward (Fink has shown great freestyle abilities to go with his known breaststrokes). Remember that last year, they scored only 20 relay points on only two making top-16. This group should have much better than that in them this season. Jameson Hill again was very fast in the first semester, but this year his times were across-the-board stronger (he’s leaning shorter so far this year – replacing the mile with the 100) and he should be better prepared to repeat that speed at NCAA’s.

9. Florida Gators – Surprise Swimmer: Bradley Deborde (previously #8)

We all know the story with the Gators – we haven’t seen anywhere close to their best yet. They lost enormous points to graduation, but their freshmen are fitting in very well. From a team scoring perspective, their challenge will continue to be that they have big concentrations in certain areas (IM’ers, breaststrokers) and not enough in others (sprinters), which will tip the balance against their favor. With a focus on those sprinters, Deborde has been solid this year (20.18 in the 50), and Matt Norton is coming back from an injury season with a bang, but the Gators only have two swimmers under 21 seconds in the 50, and only three who are under 46 seconds in the 100. Watch for Matt Curby around taper-time. He hasn’t been the Gators’ biggest name so far, but he could be the most valuable of the group at NCAA’s.

10. Texas A&M Aggies – Surprise Swimmer: N/A (previously #10)

This, like Florida, is another pick where you have to put “faith in the system,” so to speak, as they don’t do any sort of a mid-season rest or taper. Still, the Aggie sprinters are across-the-board faster than they were at the same time last year, and as one member of the team put it they were “unusually fast” at the Texas Invite to the point that even they were surprised. A&M is racing a whole lot more this year than they normally do (which will make for a smoother SEC transition). Having Boris Loncaric back (sans any fallout from his doping suspension) is already helping the Aggies straighten out their medley relays, as having to force those last year cost them huge points at NCAA’s. Grant Nel is the favorite in all three diving events, with Cam McLean looking at about 20 points as well. Having a 75-point head start never hurts.

11. Ohio State Buckeyes – Surprise Swimmer: Alex Miller (previously #11)

Much like Georgia, the Buckeyes lost some huge pieces off of last year’s squad, and still appear to have come back in a better position than they were last year. The veterans Jason Schnur and Lincoln Fahrbach have held down the sprint group while Tim Phillips redshirts, and freshman  Tyler Stevenson is currently ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in the 100 breaststroke, taking over for the graduated Elliott Keefer. Sophomore Alex Miller has also been very strong in the distance freestyles. The two mentioned above, along with Andrew Elliott, give this team just enough experience to continue their forward momentum.

12. Virginia Cavaliers – Surprise Swimmer: Bradley Phillips (previously #12)

Virginia is recovering very well from an early-season debacle against Navy, and they are being led individually by their sophomore class of Jon Daniec, Bradley Phillips, and Taylor Grey. There’s more depth in this team than is easily picked out just by name recognition, and even their 800 free relay (despite the massive graduations) has looked like it will be very good again this year.

13. Tennessee Volunteers – Surprise Swimmer: (previously #13)

Tennessee is another team that doesn’t do a big midseason rest, but they’ve still looked pretty good this year in their relays, especially the 800 where they were 12th at NCAA’s last year (and should be top-8 this season). That realy has already been a 6:36 (ranked 14th in the country) without Ryan Harrison, their best 200 freestyler, in the group. Vols should get some diving points from Ryan Helms, though not huge points.

14. Louisville Cardinals – Surprise Swimmer: Joao de Lucca (previously #16)

The Cardinals were on fire at the Tennessee Invitational in November, especially Brazilian Joao de Lucca, who ranks 7th and 8th, respectively, in the 100 and 200 freestyles in the country this season. This Louisville team is much more complete than they were last year – their backstroker (Brendon Andrews) is swimming very well, they’ve got a load of breaststrokers including Carlos Almeida (who hasn’t shown us his true abilities yet), and even their sprint freestyle relays look very good, which is not what most people think of when they think Louisville. We’ll learn a lot about how rested de Lucca was in Tennessee when he swims at the firsst leg of the Brazilian Olympic qualifying this week in Rio (so far so good).

15. Indiana Hoosiers – Surprise Swimmer: James Wells (previously #14)

The three relays that Eric Ress swam on at NCAA’s last year, the 800 free relay and the two medleys, are swimming very well this year without him, and a big reason for that is sophomore James Wells stepping up strongly in the sprint backstrokes, just as Ress said he would when we interviewed him a few weeks ago. This has been complimented by freshman Steve Schmul sliding very nicely into the butterfly spot. The 800 relay has looked very strong as well, and even better – these relays are dominated by underclassmen. They still need badly to find some more sprinters, though. 

16. UNLV Rebels – Surprise Swimmer: Ballant Batka (previously #18)

The Rebels have the talent to finish higher than 16th at NCAA’s, especially based on how they swam at the Texas Hall of Fame Invitational. Cody Roberts is again leading the way (posting a 46.0 in the 100 fly), but this year he has a much stronger supporting cast. Charles Tapp and Steven Nelms have formed a formidable sprint duo that matches UNLV’s great medley relays has been very fast in the sprints. Freshman Allen Coleman, the star of the class, has had a great season as well (47.6 in the 100 fly). In fact, the whole UNLV freshman class has been fast. But if we think back to last year’s NCAA meet, this squad didn’t taper very well (aside from their distance group). If they hit the taper better this season, they could move as high as #14.

17. North Carolina – Surprise Swimmer: Evan Reed (previously #15)

It’s been tough this year to get a good grasp on the Tar Heels. Luchsinger looks ready to roll again this season, as does sprinter Steve Cebertowicz. Freshman Domonick Glavich is living up to the high hopes that Tar Heel fans had on him when he came to campus. After those three, however, UNC is searching for a few step-ups. They’ll still do well in a largely-weak ACC, but NCAA’s could be tough this season.

18. Arizona State Sun Devils – Surprise Swimmer: Hayden Thomas (previously #17)

The Sun Devil divers have had a great start to the season. Canadian Riley McCormick finished 9th on the platform at World’s, which is a huge improvement off of his 20th-place finish last season. Blaha doesn’t compete platform at the NCAA level, but on the springboards he will be jockeying with Texas A&M’s Grant Nel and Texas’ Drew Livingston for the medal positions with McCrory and Boudia both sitting out. McCormick figures to have three A-Finals in him, and a top three finish on platform as well. Cameron Bradshaw should sneak in for points too.  As for the swimmers, they have some good freshman talent (Nolan Brown, Zac Dalby), but are still unlikely to have any NCAA qualifiers this year.

20. UCSB Guachos – Surprise Swimmer: N/A (previously unranked)

This is a veteran team with a huge senior-finale having been in the pipeline for the past few years, especially for seniors Chris Peterson, Garrett Thompson, and Kevin Ferguson.

Not Quite Top 20, But Swimming Well: Clemson Tigers – Surprise Swimmer: N/A

The Clemson men are gearing-up to go out with a huge bang. Last year, they caught everyone off-guard at ACC’s and again at NCAA’s, but this year, the quartet of Eric Bruck, Chris Reinke, Seth Broster, and Chris Dart have already started building off of last year’s success. For how well they swam at NCAA’s last year, they only came away with 16.5 points. I think they’ll do better than that this year, but it will take another 30-40 points to crack the top 20.

Not Quite Top 20, But Swimming Well: Iowa Hawkeyes – Surprise Swimmer: Manuel Belzer

Ryan Phelan and Paul Gordon are both swimming extremely well this season. The problem is that to match up relays, of their two best swimmers Phelan has to stretch up from the 50 (he’s the definition of a pure sprinter), and Gordon has to stretch down from the 200. They’ll put together two very good relays (the 200 and 400 free), and should nab a few B-Finals from their seniors as well.

Not Quite Top 20, But Swimming Well: Penn State Nittany Lions

Without Graham Risley coming back this season, the Penn State medleys that were so good at NCAA’s last year took a small step backwards, but freshman Nate Savoy has swum very well as a replacement.

Not Quite Top 20, But Swimming Well: Missouri Tigers

Sophomore diver David Bonuchi will have a huge impact on the Tigers’ year-end performance, and their swimmers continue to take things to new highs. The biggest concern with the swimmers is, however, that they’ve perhaps rested for too many meets early in the season (they were suited against Missouri State, for example).