Day 1 Start Lists, Analysis for Duel in the Pool

The Start Lists for Day 1 of the 2011 Duel in the Pool have been posted on OmegaTiming.com. The meet will kick off tonight at 7 Eastern Time on Universal Sports in the United States.

Here are all of the start lists combined into one file.

The Missy Franklin double in the 100 free and 200 backstrokes, back-to-back, won’t happen, as she’ll instead focus on being the top seed in the 200 back. Ryan Lochte, on the other hand, had no such issues with taking on an extreme back-to-back challenge in the men’s 200 back and 400 IM (and praying for commercial breaks).

I think that the American coaches are sending a message by leaving her out of the 100 free – they want a World Record to go down, live, in front of a National television audience in prime time. It’s hard to blame them, as that could be a huge boon for the sport, but luckily Franklin, even at 16, seems apt to handle that pressure. I will be curious to see if they do the same with the 100 back/200 free double on the second day of competition.

The biggest thing to notice when looking through the start lists is that from a team perspective, the Europeans are shooting themselves in the foot before they ever get off the blocks. There are several events that they have only entered two swimmers in (likely because the assembled team is overcrowded in some areas, and understaffed in others). That’s going to cost them significant points in the team standing, and should make the USA feel pretty comfortable about winning this meet.

Relays

The most exciting battles in this meet will be the relays, and on day 1 we will see the 400 medley squads show off, one-on-one, with the winner being the only to score points. In the women’s race, the Americans have a decided advantage. Strangely, Jeanette Ottesen has been chosen to swim the fly leg in this relay instead of Fran Halsall, which might give an indication of the relative rest that the swimmers are putting in.

Men

This one could be a better race than it looks like on paper. Nick Thoman is a monster in short course, so the Americans should get off to an early start. The 100 breaststroke should be fairly tight – Hansen’s never done phenomenal short course meters times, and I don’t think he will be too rested for this meet. If it comes down to the freestyle leg, my pick would be for the monster Grevers to take the edge in the 100 (Brown might give it a good battle in a 50).

Individuals

As we mentioned above, Missy Franklin’s big first-day events will be the 200 back and the 400 medley relay. In the 200 back, she’ll have good competition from Ukrainian Daryna Zevina, who is a great 200 backstroker (in both long course and short course) and also very young. Franklin will put a few days of rest into this meet, so expect the World Record to go down here.

The 400 IM will be another great race. Lochte and Conor Dwyer bookend the field out of lanes 2 and 6 (maybe this is a hint that they don’t plan to rest), with Tyler Clary in the middle for the Americans. The Europeans only have two entries, with Dinko Jukic and Laszlo Cseh forming a solid pair. Jukic is very good in short course, and Cseh seems to swim well anytime, any place.

The women’s 400 IM will also be a great battle, with Caitlin Leverenz, Julia Smit (the short course World Record holder and defending winner of this event), Elizabeth Beisel swimming as the top Americans. Europe’s Katinka Hosszu is a stud in short course, so don’t count her out in this race despite a stumble over the summer, and her Hungarian countrymate Zsu Kajabos will also be tough. The youngest swimmer in this field (hard to believe it’s not Beisel, or Leverenz) is the Czech Republic’s Barbora Zavadova at only 18. She could be in for a breakout.

In the overcrowded women’s 100 for the Europeans, Jeanette Ottesen, the defending Co-World Champion, is the odd-woman out. That doesn’t really hurt their strength, however, as Marleen Veldhuis, Aleksandra Herasimenia, Ranomi Kromowidjojo, and Fran Halsall are probably still capable of a 1-4 finish. The only swimmer who is likely to break that up is the USA’s Natalie Coughlin, as she’s a horse in short course. The Americans will also throw out Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy, and Amanda Weir. This could be the race of the meet.

The women’s 100 fly will be similarly good. Coughlin will be back again, as will Veldhuis and Vollmer. Ottesen is focusing on the butterfly events, and she’ll be in this race, with Halsall, Donahue, Breeden, and Granstroem. The Europeans could have the edge in this race as well.