The 2012 Big 12 Championships will have a bit of an uncomfortable feeling:half of the programs participating in this meet will not be back next year. That includes the hosts and their sparkling Mizzou Aquatics Center.
But the departing programs are looking to go out with a bang. Missouri is taking steps forward under coach Greg Rhodenbaugh, as his Arizona credentials seem to really be taking hold at his new program. The women have two bona-fide stars in Shara Stafford and Dominique Bouchard, and their aura is leading to big improvements for those around them – like junior Cassie Cunningham, who has already been sub-53 in the 100 back this year.
Bouchard herself has made big improvements to increase her versatility this season. She’s no longer just one of the top 200 backstrokers in the country, but she’s added a killer 100 as well. Last year, her only score at NCAA’s was a second-place finish in the 200 back. Expect much more from her this season.
The men haven’t been quite as successful (including a tough dual loss to Kentucky), but some good swims have kept them in the top 25 this season – and as high as #14. There’s some fear that this Missouri team has used up one-too-many bullets in-season, but we’ll have to wait and see for sure.
Their star is freshman Neil O’Halloran, who is the #2-ranked 100 butterflier in the conference this year with a 47.58. Another freshman, Eegan Groome, has been very good in the distance freestyles, with season-bests of 4:21/15:13. With a few more years of maturing, this Missouri squad could have a big impact on the SEC (though the depth still isn’t there to really compete).
The Texas Longhorns are the defending champions of both the men’s and women’s meets. The men repeating their crown is inevitable, but the women should have another great battle with Texas A&M (the two have had some barn-burnerconference meets over the last decade).
The Longhorn men are led by the usual string of stars. They’re too numerous to name in entirety here (that’s why the Longhorns are among the favorites for the national title), but include Olympic hopeful Jimmy Feigen, who is taking an Olympic waiver to his class schedule this semester in preparation for June’s trials. One of the key swimmers for Texas this season has been senior Neil Caskey. He’s always had an important role on the Texas relays, but this year has had to really step up in the butterfly position after the transfer of Woody Joye. Thus far, he’s done so masterfully.
The big watch for the Longhorn men is who is going to emerge as that one piece that can push the Longhorns over the edge. They always cart out a few at Big 12’s who surprise everyone outside of the walls of the Jamail Swim Center with a big swim – last year, it was Hayes Johnson. This year’s candidates include maybe senior Matt Hoyland (the Longhorns could really use an elite sprint breaststroker), freshman sprinter Ben Anderson, or younger Hill brother Kerrington Hill.
The Texas women have a much more interesting team race ahead of them. Karlee Bispo has been a monster for the Lady Longhorns this season, and is the focal point for this team. The Longhorns have had some good freestylers step up around her, however, including swimmers like Bethany Adams who is building off of a great NCAA Championship meet.
Breaststroker Laura Sogar hasn’t put up times early this season that she has in past years, and frankly that’s terrifying (for everyone else). She’s seemed on the verge of a major breakthrough since arriving in Austin, and if all is well in Longhorn camp, this year could be the year.
A swimmer that Texas needs to swim well this year is Leah Gingrich. She’s been way off this year (too far to assume it’s just a different training theory of some sort), and head coach Kim Brackin made some interesting comments early in the season about Gingrich being happy. She will serve as a good barometer for this team’s top-end potential this season.
The A&M men have had some meets where performances were slightly above expectations and some that were slightly below expectations this season. But with the way they train (no mid-season rest, big emphasis on weights) the team always puts a bigger focus on “racing” in season than times.
Look for A&M to swim some very good relays at this meet. The Aggies don’t have many concerns about their sprinters – including top guys John Dalton (who should have a breakout month between now and March) and Kyle Troskot – getting relays into NCAA’s.
They’ve lost their best swimmer Balazs Makany, but have returned an equally-good one in Boris Loncaric. He is going to be the key to A&M getting their medleys safely in without having to force pieces this season. Expect A&M to be motivated for good times in the medleys at this year’s meet.
The flaw in this A&M men’s team is that their lineup is a bit fragile. They have some good swimmers, but in most positions (aside from sprint frees) they’re only one-swimmer deep. That doesn’t hurt you much in overall scoring in a conference setup like the Big 12, but it doesn’t give coach Jay Holmes much flexibility in setting his lineups. They need everyone to be hitting at this meet for expectations of a top-10 finish to come through at the next meet – Nationals.
As for the A&M women, they are one of the top teams in the country…in everything but freestyle. They are painfully without sprinters, which was obvious in their dual meet with Texas early this season. The gruesome bicycle injury to Lily Ibanez early in the year was about the one piece that the team couldn’t afford to lose, and Sarah Henry’s recurrent ACL injury, they need someone to step up in a big way.
Breeja Larson is poised to do something absolutely incredible in the breaststrokes. But this year, she’s among the options that A&M has experimented with to fill sprint freestyle holes. They also badly need freshman Kelli Benjamin.
The buzz will be all about Cammile Adams, however. She posted a long course 200 fly at the Austin Grand Prix that made jaws drop around the world. We’ve seen one yards 200 fly from her since then, where she went a 1:57. But needless to say, she’s got the potential to wow the crowd again at Big 12’s and/or NCAA’s.
And even without an anchor, A&M has top-5 worthy medley relays. They should have the lead on both headed into the final leg. Things will get interesting there, though.
Kansas is actually having a pretty good season, though not good enough to challenge for a top-3 team spot. Abigail Anderson, if she goes after the 100 fly/100 back double, should be an A-Finalist in both.
Iowa State has a few names that are pushing the school’s all-time ranking lists. Sprinter Amanda Paulson is undefeated in the Cyclones’ 8 dual meets in the 50 free this season with a top time of 23.0. They also have a great breaststroking group that includes sophomores Emily Witsie and Imelda Wistey, as well as junior 200 yard specialist Marley Suckow.
Races to Watch
Women’s 200 Breaststroke
In terms of breaststroke depth in the conference, there isn’t much. But boy, are the top two incredible. Breeja Larson and Laura Sogar have both been under 2:10 this year, and could both be as fast as under 2:08 in the 200 in this meet. Larson is the favorite in the race, but Sogar should be well within reach. Expect the pair to be about even in the first, second, and fourth 50’s, but if Sogar wants to pull off the upset, it will have to be done on the 3rd leg. That’s where Larson is so strong, and where Sogar has fallen off the pace in the past.
This pair had some great races at last year’s Big 12 Championship meet (before Larson blew up), and it’s exciting to think about the same again this season.
Men’s 500 Free
With the Longhorn men having an eye towards the National title, good swims in this 500 free are going to be a key benchmark. As we’ve been hyping all season, the Longhorns could go for a sweep of the freestyle events in March, and the 500 is where the biggest question mark lies. If McBroom is going to be the one to fill that hole at Nationals, look for a “tired” 4:18. If it’s going to be Wilcox, look for him to be a bit slower than he was at last year’s Big 12 meet – also around a 4:18.
Women’s 100 free
This race is going to be massive in the team competition. Depending how the entries fall out, the Longhorns could score as many as 80 points before the Aggies have a single swimmer touch.
If they both swim it, the win will come down to a two swimmer battle between Karlee Bispo and Shara Stafford of Missouri. Stafford is the newcomer to the conference, but as a former star for the Florida Gators, she won’t back down one bit.
A&M coach Steve Bultman will have an interesting decision to make. Will he load swimmers into this race to mitigate the damage in the single event (you can do that in the thin Big 12), or save the roster spots for other races?
Men’s 100 fly
This is one of the few battles on the men’s side where Texas won’t totally dominate, especially without Woody Joye.
Neil Caskey is the top seed, but close behind him is Missouri freshman Neil O’Halloran and A&M’s Boris Loncaric. Recall that prior to missing last season, Loncaric shared Big 12 Swimmer of the Year honors with Feigen and Dave Walters; and in 2010 he was the runner-up in this race.
Cole Cragin, a national favorite for the 100 back, will also use his huge underwaters to make himself a big player in this race as well.
Men’s 400 Free Relay
This race left sort of an uneasy feeling for the Longhorns at the end of last year’s meet. Though Texas still won the meet easily, A&M won their only swimming event in the final race of the entire meet. The Aggies gave freshman Kyle Troskot a one-second lead to work with, and though Dax Hill had an unbelievable anchor leg of 41.8, they couldn’t run down their rivals. Of course, there was no Jimmy Feigen on that relay, as they tried him out on an 800 free “B” relay instead.
Not that it made much impact on the team scoring, but with National Championship on their minds this season, the Longhorns would probably prefer to end this year’s meet with a clean sweep of the competition.
Women’s 1-Meter Diving
I’ve held out on diving until now, but in this conference, the diving will have a huge effect on the team battle. This year, the situation has flipped. Whereas A&M was without their best diver last season Jaele Patrick last season, this year Texas has lost their best Maren Taylor to injury.
In a conference like the Big 12, where ever swimmer from the top teams is expected to score big points, having big-scoring divers (who get special treatment under roster rules – you can use two to fill a single roster spot) can make a big swing in scoring.
The competition itself should be awesome between Patrick, Missouri’s young star Loren Figueroa, and A&M’s Janie Potvin on this 1-meter. Texas still has some good divers, despite being without Taylor. Diana Wilcox, Shelby Cullinan, and some talented newcomers need to perform well for the Longhorns to keep A&M from taking an early lead in the team scoring on the first day of competition.
Predictions – Men
There’s not a whole lot to talk about here. Texas is going to win. The A&M-Missouri battle has been close in the past, but without a 4th, 5th, and 6th team to play “spoiler,” it’s hard for the Tigers to make up much ground on their 110 point deficit from last year (this meet is as much about event selection as anything else).
1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Missouri
Predictions – Women
The women’s battle is much more interesting than the men’s. A fitting end would see another A&M-Texas battle coming down to the final day again, which it surely will. The key to Texas is dominating the sprints like they did in the dual meet. The key to A&M is dominating diving, and winning enough other events to offset the 50/100 depth issues.
If it comes down to the final day, Texas will excel in two events (platform diving, which Patrick doesn’t do, and the 100 free), whereas A&M will do well in the 200 breaststroke, 200 fly, and mile, with the 200 back as basically a toss-up. The Longhorns will win the meet-ending relay, and should dominate the 100 free moreso than A&M will dominate the scoring in any of their three events. Give the closing kick to the Aggies, if they’re close enough.
Missouri is comfortably in 3rd. Kansas versus Iowa State for 4th is another battle-within-the-battle. The Cyclones won the dual meet, but Kansas has more scorers who can move high into the Big 12 rankings, which is more significant to team finishes here than in just about any other conference. Jayhawks take it to position themselves as the conference’s #2 team while awaiting the addition of TCU and West Virginia.
1. Texas A&M
2. Texas
3. Missouri
4. Kansas
5. Iowa State
Putting Texas in the Mountain West wouldn’t even be fair to the teams currently there. No one from any of those schools would ever get to enjoy winning a team championship, or even have a shot at one. Rarely would any of those teams have an individual champion, let alone win it as a team. No conference will want Texas to “join in” in their meet.
Shoutout to my boy Griffin Peavey swimming for the Missouri Tigers! Kick some butt in the breaststroke baby!
clay youngquist 500 free, no hype for him i see
Does anyone know what Texas will do next year for a “Conference” meet? Will they swim in another conference or just forgo the entire process?
Simon – West Virginia and TCU both have men’s teams, so there will still be 3 in the conference. At that point, the conference championship meet will become even less interesting than it is now, though. There’s gotta be a solution that would make this a better competition on the men’s side, like we’ve seen from the women…
Thanks Braden, forgot about WVU joining the Big XII. Just doesn’t seem like a natural fit like the others and always slips my mind. Yeah and your right, that will be a brutal conference meet to watch if they are the only 3. Maybe they could join with the Mountain West for a meet….who knows.