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Following up our women’s rankings from last week and with the month of January raps up this weekend, it’s time to take another look at the men’s NCAA landscape. New (or recently-returned) faces on campus in Tuscaloosa and Los Angeles have shook up the rankings and improved fortunes for a pair of top 10 teams, and rivalry meets are in full swing. Overall, some significant shifts that have left just five teams in the same spot as our last ranks.
With the conference championship season right around the corner, here’s our second-to-last regular season 2015-16 NCAA men’s power rankings, from #20 through #1:
20. Duke Blue Devils (previous rank: #19)
Gave Indiana’s and Michigan’s swimmers a run for their money across a number of events in their quad meet, but it was also an opportunity to see all of their lineup gaps. Where they’re strong in breaststroke (Peter Kropp, Dylan Payne) and sprint freestyle (James Peek), they’re lacking elsewhere.
19. North Carolina Tarheels (previous rank: #20)
Haven’t shown much in 2016 (a win over Navy has been their only competition in January), so we not ready to drop UNC out despite having few names in the top 30. We’ll reevaluate after they take on three of their biggest rivals this weekend: #5 NC State, Virginia, and #19 Duke.
18. Minnesota Golden Gophers (previous rank: n/a)
Not a complete team yet, but looking like there’s a pretty good sprint group coming together up in Minneapolis with Bowen Becker and Daryl Turner.
17. South Carolina Gamecocks (previous rank: #18)
Don’t look now, but top distance recruit Cody Bekemeyer is starting to come around; he was 4:25/9:10 in the 500/1000 free earlier this month.
16. Florida State Seminoles (previous rank: #16)
Up there with Texas for the “Toughest January Schedule” award, taking on Florida, Louisville, Auburn, and Wisconsin. Not particularly deep, but have one very talented swimmer across all four strokes, giving the Seminoles pretty good medleys.
15. Ohio State Buckeyes (previous rank: #15)
Haven’t had to show much since their fall invite (Michigan State isn’t much of a test), but they’ll have their hands full this weekend when their arch-rivals come to town.
14. Indiana Hoosiers (previous rank: #12)
Didn’t have the horses to hang with the Wolverines (then again, few teams do), but have three guys (Blake Pieroni, Anze Tavcar, Ali Khalafalla) already under 44.7 in the 100 in 2016. No other team has done that in yards.
13. Tennessee Volunteers (previous rank: #12)
Tough road to start the new year: at Alabama (narrow loss), at Georgia (slightly less narrow loss), home against Florida (this coming Saturday). Such is life with so many quality teams in the SEC. Plenty of guys rising to the occasion though, including Peter John Stevens, who’s starting to come around again (52.3 last weekend in the 100 breast).
12. Louisville Cardinals (previous rank: #11)
Took care of business against Florida State and Kentucky, and gearing up for a big meet against Indiana this weekend. Sprint free depth beyond Trevor Carroll remains a question mark, but they’re a force across the rest of the meet order.
11. Stanford Cardinal (previous rank: #10)
Unsure what to make of Stanford’s end-of-year prospects. They downed NC State in an inspiring effort in November, but haven’t been truly challenged in a meet since. That’ll change next weekend down in SoCal against USC.
10. Missouri Tigers (previous rank: #8)
Maybe got a little too comfortable prior to swimming an upstart LSU team (Mizzou got the win, but not without a tough effort from the other Tigers on deck). Fabian Schwingenschlogl continues to demonstrate how impactful he could be in March.
9. USC Trojans (previous rank: #14)
Ralf Tribuntsov, Carsten Vissering, Patrick Mulcare, and Alex Valente are officially on the roster and competed earlier this month. What’s more, Morten Klarskov (44.97 in the 100 free against Wisconsin) is turning into a pretty good freestyler for a team that’s looking to replace 3 of 4 legs in their sprint free relays.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (previous rank: #9)
Knocking on the door of the top six with the second semester addition of Laurent Bams, a 19-year-old European Junior Championship participant for the Netherlands. Bams made a big impression in his first showing against Georgia Tech, dropping teammate and NCAA champion Kristian Gkolomeev in the 100 free, 43.66 to 44.55.
7. Auburn Tigers (previous rank: #7)
Taking down Florida in a long course format meet isn’t a huge upset, but it’s still a bit of surprise and–more than anything–a testament to the talent Auburn has. Their 1-2 finish in the 200 medley relay to open the meet was a reminder of their NCAA relay prospects.
6. Georgia Bulldogs (previous rank: #5)
Dropping a dual meet to Texas wasn’t a surprise, but finishing 45 points back when the ‘Horns exhibitioned the last two events and didn’t have Joe Schooling bumps them down a notch. They’ll be fine, though, especially if Taylor Dale keeps swimming this well.
5. NC State Wolfpack (previous rank: #6)
The Wolfpack had a great showing at the Arena Pro Swim Series in Austin. Simonas Bilis was the fastest collegiate swimmer in the 50 and 100 free, Ryan Held nearly cracked 50 seconds in the 100, Anton Ipsen got a trio of second swims, and around five others were top 24 in at least one event.
4. Florida Gators (previous rank: #3)
Have to drop a spot after dropping last weekend’s long course meet to Auburn, a format much more suited for the Gators than Tigers. We’re not worried, though; no individual breaststroke threats matters less at championship meets than dual meets.
3. Michigan Wolverines (previous rank: #4)
Dusted Indiana, Duke, and Georgia Tech in their quad meet two weekends ago, recording some of the nation’s top 2016 times in the process. Paul Powers–who’s been 19.57 already in the 50 in 2016–looks primed for a big sophomore campaign. Still need to shore up the breaststroke spot on their medley, but Chris Klein has stepped into the role nicely.
2. California Golden Bears (previous rank: #2)
Maybe starting to close the gap on Texas? Swept both Arizona squads last weekend in their first short course competitions of the new year. No, really, they swept them; the Bears didn’t drop a single swimming event across either meet. Freshman Nick Norman is really looking like he’ll be a difference maker across the distance events in March.
Prior to the Arizona duals, their big guns impressed in Austin at the Arena Pro Swim Series; Ryan Murphy, Andrew Seliskar, and Josh Prenot all finished in the top three in at least one individual event
1. Texas Longhorns (previous rank: #1)
Maybe the toughest January men’s schedule in the NCAA: Auburn, Georgia, the Arena Pro Swim Series at their home pool, and finally Arizona this coming weekend. So far, they’ve handled it just fine, dispatching the Tigers and Bulldogs (both without Joe Schooling), and grinding through the Pro Swim Series meet with some solid times (notably, Townley Haas‘s 200 free).
Check back next week for our last pre-conference power rankings!
These numbers are as of February 2nd.
Texas has 4 events with three people in the top 8, Cal has 1
Texas has 3 events with two people in the top 8, Cal also has 3
Texas has 4 events with only one person in the top 8, Cal has 3
Neither team has 4+ people in the top 8 of an event.
Clearly Texas has more people at the top, but let’s consider depth.
Texas has 1 event with seven people in the top 50, Cal has 0
Texas has 2 events with six people in the top 50, Cal has 0
Texas has 3 events with five people in the top 50, Cal… Read more »
When did NCAAs start scoring to 50th place? I see the relevance of Top-8 times, but not Top-50. It could show some depth, but not if Texas has #45-50 and Cal has #9-14 (I have no idea if that is the case, but do you see my point?)
I expanded it to 50 because that’s the length of the first page on collegeswimming.com. Both Texas and Cal had some 9th places. Top 50 shows all the people with reasonable chances to jump into qualifying.
Does Harty have a chance at any A finals?
Especially IM?
I know it takes the fun out of discussions like these, but both teams are good enough that it will really come down to who shows up better in March. Cal always has great tapers. So great, that they could almost be described as Texas-like.
Interesting that Indiana beat Louisville handily right after these results came out.
Interesting that Indiana beat Louisville handily right after these rankings came out.
okay… Wisconsin has handily beaten both minnesota and florida state and dual meets? and matt hutchins is the top miler in the ncaa right now and they have relays in scoring position, how could you say that they’re unranked?
This is true, Wisconsin should be in the top 20 but still really lack depth. Auburn beat them convincingly whilst mainly swimming off events. Hutchins is a stud but that can’t carry a team in championship season.
Okay, i will concede the point to both of you.
Horns win. Cal a cloae 2nd.
Cal swim fan, Murphy wins both backstrokes, Prenot wins 3 events, and Cal wins one more individual event 3 relay victories are a real possibility. Where am I going wrong here?
even if that happens Texas will still easily win because of depth. The most victories doesn’t equal team title…
And what three events will Prenot win? Will Licon is still swimming….
And there is no way Cal wins three relays…what three are you thinking of?
Conger- 3 A finals
Schooling- 3 A finals
Haas- 3 A finals
Licon- 3 A finals
Clark Smith- 3 A finals
Do I have to go further? Now, of course we won’t know who will win the championship for sure. Some people get sick and some people don’t hit their tapers. I wouldn’t mind if Cal won.
Murphy- 3 A finals
Prenot- 3 A finals
Seliskar- 3 A finals
Gutierrez- 3 A finals
Pebley- 2 A finals
Messerschmidt- 2 A finals
Lynch- 1-2 A finals
Norman- 1-2 A finals
Williams- 1 A final
Guys like Hoppe, Green, Cobleigh, and Coan who have looked solid and can score and we’ve got a competitive meet.
A lot has to go Cal’s way but this one is not over yet. Remember, everyone thought last year’s meet was Cal’s to lose and it didn’t go that way.
Gutierrez would hope to A final in 2 events. 200 fly and one of (200 free, 100 fly) due to NCAA event line-up. Norman at 1-2 A finals is very optimistic and I don’t think that’ll happen. Anyway, I’m not trying to argue the little details. If you try to add up the number of A finals, I think Texas probably has way more. Guys like Hoppe, Green, Cobleigh, and Coan will not contribute in my opinion.
Cal has no threat in the 500 free, 1650 free and 3 diving events. Maybe i’m just a pessimist. I just want Ryan Murphy to break records in the backstrokes. Seliskar is still a bit of a mystery to me.
Anyone who thought last year’s championship was Cal’s to lose hadn’t run any numbers or looked at many times. Last year was clearly heading towards a Texas landslide. This year is even a little more in Texas’ favor. Two years ago was a different story, with Cal as the clear favorites (albeit by not as much).
This doesn’t mean that Cal can’t win… stuff happens, that is why they swim the meet.
Don’t forget about Ryan Harty in the backstroke. He has not rested or shaved yet all season. Eddie Reese said that he would have set the Texas Swimming Center pool record if he would have let him rest and shave in the 2 back during the Texas Invite (he was 1:40.4), but it was better to keep him training. At that same meet he also went 1:43.26 in the 2 IM. He definitely has significant time drops coming at NCAA adding to points and depth from last year. Texas also has Ringgold who went 42.04 at the same meet in the 100 free and has 2 others (Murray and Ellis) at 42.4 and 42.8. Other point adds (above the loss… Read more »
Results from the previous year are often times an inaccurate way to predict the following years results. There have been many teams that if they just swam what they did the year previously, their teams would have won. That being said, the odds are still heavily favored for a Texas victory.
Their swims halfway through the year at the invite were quite outstanding. Texas typically does not give the rest that other programs do during December. If you just look at the 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1650 freestyle rankings between Cal and Texas, it does not even look like a contest. The only swimmer in the top 10 for Cal in freestyle is Ryan Murphy. Who will not… Read more »
“If you just look at the 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1650 freestyle rankings between Cal and Texas, it does not even look like a contest.”
– You might be right, but I’ll point out that Tyler Messerschmidt is back in the water. He’s been top 8 in both the 50 and 100 free at NCAAs during different years. Trent Williams was a finalist in the 200 free last year as well and he was faster this year mid-season than last year. The 500 free is always a tough event for Cal, but Ryan Kao has been faster this year than all of last year and Nick Norman was 4:17.00 in high school.
“The only swimmer in the top… Read more »
Please explain how it is mathematically possible for Conger and Schooling to both win 2 events when they swim 2 events together….