With Tuesday’s release of the 2018 NCAA Women’s Swimming & Diving Championship pre-selection psych sheets, we aren’t certain yet who will be invited to the NCAA Championships, though a number of swimmers have NCAA “Automatic” qualifying times, which means there’s no doubt in their minds, barring injury or other dilemma, of participation.
One such swimmer with that extra level of certainty is Stanford sophomore Katie Ledecky. She has the #1 ranked time in the country in 4 NCAA Championship events and is the defending NCAA Champion in 3 events, leaving her with a decision to make.
In a twist she has opted to drop one of the events that she won a title in last year, the 200 free, in favor of the 400 IM. Both races are swum on day 3, or Friday, of the championship.
Last year, Ledecky won NCAA titles in the 500 free (4:24.06 – national record), the 1650 free (15:07.70 – championship record), and tied with Louisville sophomore Mallory Comerford in the 200 free (1:40.36 – pool record).
That 200 free entry at last year’s NCAA Championship meet came in spite of swimming the 400 IM at Pac-12s, where she set an American Record in 3:57.6. At this year’s Pac-12 Championships, she swam the 400 IM again, but this time her final result of 3:56.53 broke Katinka Hosszu’s all-time best swim.
Both events are extremely competitive. At last year’s NCAA Championship, the top 4 swimmers in the 200 free were all freshmen or sophomores, and even without Ledecky, 4 of the top 5 400 IMers from last season return. In both cases, Stanford also has other NCAA title contenders. In the 400 IM, that’s Ella Eastin, who is the two-time defending champion and actually broke Ledecky’s American Record at NCAAs last year. In the 200 free, that’s Simone Manuel, swimming her last NCAA meet. Though Manuel has missed much of the season with a hip injury, she returned to form at the Pac-12 Championships, and will now be the top seed in the 200 free with Ledecky not racing it.
Scared of Mal…
Ledecky would have defeated Comerford at 200. But this move allows Manuel to relax more during the race. She always fears Ledecky’s charge and tightens up just enough, especially in the NCAA final last year.
With Ledecky out, Manuel can go out somewhat slower and tailor her strategy to defeating one closer instead of two. I wouldn’t be surprised if it succeeds and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was part of Stanford’s thinking.
Yes, it ruins what would have been the most anticipated race of the event, with the three principals returning.
But there is more upside for Ledecky in the 400 IM. Last year although her times were very good she looked like a golfer with a flawed… Read more »
Strongly disagree that Ledecky “partially took advantage of a weak stretch internationally in the 200 Free.” At 2015 Worlds, she beat the event’s world record holder Pellegrini (2 Olympic medals and a total of 9 major international medals in the 200 Free LCM), Missy Franklin (6 Olympic medals and 11 World Champs gold medals), Emma McKeon (4 Olympic medals and 11 World Champs medals) and Femke Heemskerk (2 Olympic medals and 8 Freestyle relay medals at World Champs) among others. In 2016, she beat Sarah Sjostrom, Pellegrini again, and McKeon again, and she had to go through the American record holder in the event, Allison Schmitt (a three-time Olympian with 6 Olympic medals) just to make the Olympics in the… Read more »
1. You are right that Ledecky knows how to compete against Manuel but not vise versa. There was only one strategy for Manuel: to swim fast first part of the distance. But it can turn out to be costly if it’s just a little bit overdone. Remember Cate Campbell? There are more tactical options swimming against Comerford (as you described).
2. Ledecky showed no progress at all at breaststroke. Her improvement at 400IM this season by more than 1 sec came solely from backstroke.
3. 1:57.73 LCM is the second best, 0.12sec only behind the real world record, but not the assisted one. It won’t be approached by any currently active swimmers. This situation can hardly be classified… Read more »
*1:53.73
You are uncultured and frankly just wrong. Has Comerford not proven herself? She spanked Manuel at NC’s in the 200 last year and has been on more of an improvement curve than Ledecky. I don’t know why some people are blind to the fact that those other than stars like Ledecky and Manuel can be fast
After watching Ella eastin,s crazy 200 fly, I think she may have been holding back in the 400 IM in order to get the 200 fly record. I have no idea of her second best stroke after butterfly.
I think after the fly, all of Eastin’s other strokes can be considered equally dominant. She hasn’t swam any other 200s of stroke tapered in college, but she’s put up some pretty fast in season times across all strokes.
it’ll be tough for ella eastin to 4-peat…
The competition at 400IM can be significantly stronger than at 200. Neither Manuel nor Comerford have demonstrated the improvement in this event. With the high probability the winner can be still above 1:40. I don’t know of how much Ella Eastin focused on 400IM in conference meet but she improved her pb as well and she wasn’t far behind Ledecky at the finish.
If not to expect Ledecky to be at much better form in finals then with decision she made we may not see a new record at 1650. Because the race at 400IM will take more of her than it would happen should she compete at 200. She most likely will be on 400free relay that with… Read more »
I don’t understand why everyone is doubting Comerford. She was clearly exhausted at ACCs as she split 1:40 on the first night and was up to 1:42 by the third day. She’s got more to give, and she will be FAST at NCAAs.
Nobody doubts that she is exceptionally gifted. But the real story of her swimming is not even a one year old and started at the age of twenty. The improvement in one year from 54 to 52 at this age is probably unique. At the same time the bettering of her time in 200LCM is not that shocking compare to 100LCM. 200 SCY is in the middle. We just don’t have enough data to draw any reasonable predictions. She can be up to Franklin’s record or nothing can happen and she can fail against Manuel in this very tactical race.
She scurrred
Anybody else realize her 400 IM American Record and her 400m Free WR are almost the exact same?
illuminati
And they will be, for at least two more weeks.
I’m just waiting for her to throw down something crazy as an 800 Free Relay lead off