Over the next few weeks, as the Long Course season closes out, new freshman are arriving on campus, and fans everywhere ramp up for another exciting NCAA Season, we will be running a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NCAA season. Starting with the no.12 teams and finishing with the defending National Championships (Texas men and Florida women) we will work our way down the top finishers from last year’s NCAAs and will also jump into some rising teams that we expect to break into the top tier this season. Click here to see the other women’s previews, and click here to see all of the previews, Men’s and Women’s.
Key Losses: Gemma Spofforth (46 NCAA Points, 4 Relays), Melania Costa Schmid (20 NCAA Points, 1 NCAA Relay), Kara Salamone (29 NCAA Diving Points), Lindsey Rogers-Louisville Transfer (2 NCAA Relays), Stephanie Napier (1 NCAA Relay), Elizabeth Kemp (1 NCAA Relay)
Key Additions: Elizabeth Beisel (Back, IM, Fly), Alana Pazevic (Back, Fly, Sprint Free), Julia Triebel (Breaststroke), Kaiitlin Frehling (Fly), Trish Regan (Fly)
2010 Recaps: Florida made a big jump last season when it moved from 7th in 2009 to National Champions in 2010.
The big story last year for Florida was the way their divers locked down the victory at the end of the meet. In a battle between Florida and Stanford that literally was in question until the very last event, the platform diving duo of Kara Salamone and Monica Dodson gave the Gators just a comfortable enough margin in the meet’s second-to-last event where the Gators could be confident in their placing headed into the 400 free relay.
After prelims, the two divers were seeded 6th and 7th, which put them in line for 25 points. With Dodson being doomed early by a poor dive to 8th place in the final, had Salamone finished her expected 6th place, the Gators would have lost the meet by literally the slimmest of margins: half of a point. Instead, Salamone slid up to third place, which represented the difference in the meet.
This season, Florida will have quite a few significant holes to fill in their lineup.
The departure of British international superstar Gemma Spofforth doesn’t hurt as bad as it might seem like it should. Last season, she was the national champion in the 100 backstroke and runner-up in the 200 (which ended her undefeated streak in that event at NCAA Championships). She was also a key part of 4 different relays. Junior Teresa Crippen finished 3rd in the 200 backstroke, just behind Spofforth, and is the favorite coming into this season.
They will also bring in a stellar freshman backstroker (and most else-er for that matter) in Elizabeth Beisel. Beisel is already a member of the USA-Swimming National Team by virtue of having ranked in the top 6 in both of the backstrokes and IM events at USA-Swimming Nationals and Pan-Pacs. In 2010, Beisel actually ranked ahead of Spofforth in the 200 backstroke World Rankings (16th versus 18th) in a converted 1:46. Beisel’s best yards times from last season (53.9/1:53.6) put her in a great position to final in both races, especially as she turns more of her focus to short course swimming.
Obviously, Spofforth’s experience and leadership are almost irreplaceable, and losing her points will hurt, but thanks to quality depth and a superstar freshman, it won’t be the death-blow that it seems like it should be.
Florida’s second big backstroke recruit is Alana Pazevic from Washington state. She is one of the top 10 backstrokers in the class, with a textile best of 54.0. She is also very solid in the 100 fly (54.81) and the sprint freestyles.
Crippen and Beisel will match up very similarly for the Gators this season even beyond the 200 backstroke. In the 400 IM last season, which is both swimmers’ best event, Crippen was the National Runner-up (4:02.91), and Beisel’s best time (4:04.44) would have placed her fourth. In the 200 fly, Crippen placed fifth (1:53.90), and Beisel’s best of 1:56.86 would have put her 15th in finals. The biggest difference is that Beisel is a little more versatile in her ability to sprint than Crippen, who comes from a famous family of distance swimmers. For example, Beisel has a best of 1:56.8 (which would have barely missed an A-final at NCAAs) in the 200 IM, whereas Crippen didn’t break two minutes. Beisel also has much better 100 backstroke times, and is also a potential contributor in the 100 free (50.30). Beisel has a ton of potential in developing her short course times, given the awesomeness of her long course numbers, and has a ton of potential for the Gators.
The Gators will be affected just as much by the loss of Lindsay Rogers, who has transferred to Louisville, despite the fact that she didn’t score a single individual point at NCAA’s. Rogers had a season best of 1:01.2 in the 100 breaststroke, from the SEC Championships, but swam much slower at NCAA’s to miss finaling. That leaves Carly Pike, who had a season best of 1:03.24, as the fastest returning breaststroker in the lineup.
The Gators do bring in a pretty good breaststroker in Julia Treibel out of neighboring Georgia. Her senior year bests were 1:03.86 and 2:15.99 in the breaststrokes. She will develop into a very good breaststroker, eventually, but for next season at least they will be scrambling to fill those spots.
Another rising star for the Gators is junior Jemma Lowe, who is a butterfly specialist. Last season, she finished 6th at NCAA’s in the 200 fly (1:54.05), one spot behind Crippen, and 13th in the 100 fly (52.58). Even more impressive about Lowe is her value as a relay swimmer. In the 400 medley, she was the only swimmer to crack the 50-second mark by coming in at 50.97 in prelims. (Stanford’s prelims timing was glitchy, and Elaine Breeden split a 51.01 in finals, so she may have very well broken 51 as well.)
Freshmen Kaitlin Frehling and Trish Regan are the future of the butterfly program, with best times of 55.03 and 54.30, respectively. Frehling should be an NCAA scorer by her sophomore or junior season, and Regan could be there as a freshman. Frehling is also a very good sprint freestyler, with senior year bests of 23.32/50.35. Regan’s secondary events are the 200 back (1:57.6) and the 200 IM (2:00.0).
The Gators return a very good pair of sprinters in juniors Shara Stafford and Sarah Bateman. Stafford finished 6th in the 50 freestyle with a time of 22.28. This season, she will return as part of a loaded women’s 50 free field. Bateman was 10th, but with a finals time of 22.32, she will be right in the elite level as well. Stafford also took 4th in the 100 freestyle at 47.81, where she probably has a slightly better chance at pulling off a National Title, as she was in a very tight finishing group last season with Georgia’s Morgan Scroggy and Cal’s Liv Jensen for the 2nd-4th place spots.
In the longer freestyle events, Florida’s pantry is left pretty barren with the graduation of Melania Costa Schmid, who was 15th in the 200, 11th in the 500, and 7th in the mile. The best returning distance swimmer for Florida is sophomore Corinne Showalter. She showed amazing consistency last season by finishing in 20th place in the mile in 16:13.81, which was exactly her seed time, to the hundredth of a second. As a miler, she should show a ton of improvement between her freshman and sophomore years, and get into the top 16 this season.
Showalter will be supplemented by freshman Alicia Mathieu from Connecticut. Mathieu will be one of the top 5-or-6 freshman milers in the nation this season, as she already has a 16:16 mile. This time has her nipping right on Showalter’s heels, and a very reachable 6 seconds off of NCAA points.
This distance tandum has a shot at pulling off an impressive feat by scoring two swimmers at NCAA’s in the 1650. Last season, not one team managed double scorers in the mile; not even the vaunted Georgia freestyle crew.
The Free relays will be very good again this year. The medleys will not be as fast, especially due to the lack of a breaststroker. The silver lining for Florida is that past the top two or three medleys, the nation as a whole is relatively shallow in these events. Still, they are bound to drop a few points at least.
The Gators bring in three freshman divers this season after Salamone’s graduation. The best of the three is Danielle Risley, who is a 2009 USA Diving Age Group National Championships qualifier. It will likely be at least a season or two of maturation and training to impact Florida’s scoring at NCAA’s.
2011 Prognosis: This team definitely has some very good pieces. They are very good in the freestyle sprints, and very good through the middle distances. They have a freshman class that is as versatile as any in the country. It seems as though the rest of the nation has more than made up the gap this year.
Last season, everyone underestimated Florida as well. But this year, they don’t have their national champion Gemma Spofforth to lead them. They only have one big-time diver to give them a last-minute boost. They don’t have anything resembling an NCAA caliber breaststroker. I see the Gators sliding back all the way to fifth, albeit probably one of the strongest fifth place teams in history. They are still a very good team, but there is a ton of parity this year, and I don’t foresee a repeat.
We’ve gotcha covered. We’re going to do a 1-15 for men’s and women’s. Andy’s putting the finishing touches on his. Look for the women’s to be posted sometime tomorrow, and the men’s to drop over the weekend.
now that you have done a recap of each team from last year and what they have this year, how about a prediction of men and women 1-5 for this year?