SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers to pick the top recruit in the current class of high school juniors:
RESULTS
Question: Who should be the #1 recruit in the boys class of 2021?
- Anthony Grimm (45.6/20.8 back, 19.6 free, 52.5 breast) – 64.4%
- Aiden Hayes (46.0/1:41.3 fly, 19.5 free, 46.3 back) – 35.6%
About two thirds of voters diverged from SwimSwam’s ranks, putting Anthony Grimm at the #1 spot among recruits in the boys junior class.
Grimm certainly has the edge in name value. He became a darling of the SwimSwam comment section last spring with an eye-popping 50 back – a 20.8 that would have been among the best splits at NCAAs that year.
Aiden Hayes had the better junior year, though, dropping from 1:47 to 1:41 in the 200 fly, 46.6 to 46.0 in the 100 fly, 47.2 to 46.3 in the 100 back and from 19.7 to 19.5 in the 50 free, while Grimm didn’t register drops in any of his top four events as a junior.
The contrast is a good example of several of the factors we have to juggle when projecting athletes for our recruit rankings. There’s current production – the athlete’s portfolio of times and how they compare to the rest of the class, as well as the usual makeup of the NCAA’s scoring ranks. There’s also improvement curves – how fast an athlete is improving or plateauing. Then there’s relay value – how the athlete’s best events can contribute on the double-scoring NCAA relays – and versatility, not to mention other factors like height, or long course ability.
The difference between the poll and our official rankings (where we put Hayes as the #1 prospect) highlights a key difference we run across most years: we tend to base our ranks more off of actual production, trying to capture a ‘snapshot in time’, while commenters are usually more impressed by potential and future projection.
In terms of pure times, it’s hard to put Grimm at #1, when Hayes has superior times in most common events (50 free, 100 free, 100 fly) and a best event (200 fly) that would rank higher in NCAA finish (12th in 2019) than Grimm’s (100 back, 21st).
On the other hand, commenters were much more forgiving to Grimm with projections. Grimm did battle injuries during his senior year of high school, and that put a damper on his performances at Virginia’s high school state meet. Grimm typically hit some big times at NCSAs later in the spring, but that meet was canceled this year.
Hayes, out of Oklahoma, was able to swim a taper meet in December, hitting a bunch of personal-bests at Winter Juniors. Would Grimm’s times have been better at NCSAs than Hayes’ were at Winter Juniors? Hard to say. But that’s the main split between our official ranks and the poll results.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters if the Olympic postponement will cause even more swimmers to skip NCAA season than did last year in the presumed leadup to Tokyo:
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ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE
The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner
The article is identifying these boys as Seniors. Aren’t they only Juniors in high school?