The Case for a Comeback: How Can Energy Standard Challenge After Day 1 Deficit

Yesterday, with the help of SwimSwam number’s guru Barry Revzin, we laid out a case that the Cali Condors, who are in the lead, will remain in the lead after day 2 of the International Swimming League’s day 2 finals.

But waking up on Sunday morning, Barry felt compelled to make another, and opposite case: that Energy Standard is not out of this competition yet.

• First, read our case for the Cali Condors here.

ISL Scores After Day 1 of the 2020 Grand Finale

1. Cali Condors – 267
2. Energy Standard – 239.5
3. London Roar – 199.5
4. LA Current – 177

If, on day 2 of the meet, we instead replace Energy Standard’s semifinals times in their projections with their season best times in their projections, and make some substitutions based on the hot hands, we get a chart like this.

As explained by Barry:

Left column is our “psych” sheet – just taking the teams’ results from the semifinals and merging them together (not including skins). Middle column is using what happened today for day 1, but using the semifinals results for day 2. You can see how relatively well Cali did today and how relatively poorly London did, and how much Energy has to catch up.Right column is: what if for every event, I take Energy’s best two times across the whole season and give them that (all else equal)? This also includes replacing some folks (Kolesnikov for Rylov in the 100 free, Sjostrom for Heemskerk in the 100 free, Manaudou for Stupin in the 100 IM – especially big because he doesn’t get jackpotted by Dressel, and Lima for Zhilkin in the 100 breast. Now that’s suddenly close. If we additionally give le Clos a 1:49.00, just enough to win the 200 fly over Shields, that makes it Cali 452 – Energy 447.5.

Braden Again:

We’ve seen teams’ momentum shift entirely from day 1 to day 2 of these meets. While Cali certainly was ‘on’ more in day 1 than was Energy Standard, if Energy Standard catches fire early with, say, a 1-2 finish in the women’s 100 free from some combination of Sarah Sjostrom, Femke Heemskerk, and Siobhan Haughey; and an upset win in the men’s 100 free from the hot-handed Kliment Kolesnikov over Caeleb Dressel, that could carry them through some lineup weaknesses later in the day.

If they’re within 10 points going into the skins, they’ve got a real shot. They got the choice in the men’s skins, where they picked the 50 breaststroke. In the absence of Emre Sakci, and with Adam Peaty looking just a little off on day 1 as compared to last week’s semi-finals, Energy’s Ilya Shymanovich at a minimum should be able to do enough to be ‘top scorer’ in that race (even if he doesn’t win the final round).

While Lilly King and Molly Hannis are the #1 and #2 favorites in the women’s skins race, both from Cali Condors, Lilly King‘s approach to the skins event, going after a win in the final round rather than maximizing points, leaves her vulnerable to Benedetta Pilato – who was just .04 seconds behind King in the opening round.

With the Energy Standard coaches appearing to have a better feel for how to maximize points in the ISL format than most teams, we might see Pilato be very aggressive in the opening round. Remember that King, in winning the 50 breast yesterday, Jackpotted 4 swimmers, for a 19-point swim. If Pilato does that today, she could outscore King in the event.

It’s still a longshot, and the Condors are able to continue to roll full-throttle, their 27.5-point lead should be enough to carry them to victory. But it’s plausible. Last season, Energy Standard trailed until they pulled ahead on the skins. They, and the league, would sure love another dramatic such finish this season.

Tracking the horse race:

To help fans keep track of what they’re seeing and if a comeback is happening, here’s an event-by-event score projection for all events up to the ‘skins’ race.

+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
|        event        |   CAC |   ENS |   LON |   LAC | margin |
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
|   W 100 Butterfly   |  10.0 |  10.0 |   4.0 |  12.0 |    0.0 |
|   M 100 Butterfly   |  30.0 |  17.0 |   8.0 |  18.0 |   13.0 |
|   W 200 Backstroke  |  48.0 |  24.0 |  17.0 |  21.0 |   24.0 |
|   M 200 Backstroke  |  53.0 |  39.0 |  26.0 |  28.0 |   14.0 |
|  W 200 Breaststroke |  73.0 |  39.0 |  39.0 |  32.0 |   34.0 |
|  M 200 Breaststroke |  83.0 |  45.0 |  52.0 |  40.0 |   38.0 |
| W 4 x 100 Freestyle |  93.0 |  77.0 |  64.0 |  60.0 |   16.0 |
|    M 50 Freestyle   | 117.0 |  84.0 |  63.0 |  66.0 |   33.0 |
|    W 50 Freestyle   | 121.0 | 101.0 |  70.0 |  75.0 |   20.0 |
|     M 200 Medley    | 126.0 | 105.0 |  83.0 |  90.0 |   21.0 |
|     W 200 Medley    | 138.0 | 111.0 |  99.0 |  93.0 |   27.0 |
|  M 50 Breaststroke  | 144.0 | 126.0 | 110.0 |  98.0 |   18.0 |
|  W 50 Breaststroke  | 168.0 | 133.0 | 116.0 |  98.0 |   35.0 |
| M 4 x 100 Freestyle | 184.0 | 159.0 | 130.0 | 116.0 |   25.0 |
|   W 50 Backstroke   | 197.0 | 169.0 | 133.0 | 127.0 |   28.0 |
|   M 50 Backstroke   | 203.0 | 174.5 | 142.5 | 142.0 |   28.5 |
|   W 400 Freestyle   | 219.0 | 184.5 | 151.5 | 143.0 |   34.5 |
|   M 400 Freestyle   | 225.0 | 195.5 | 163.5 | 151.0 |   29.5 |
|   W 4 x 100 Medley  | 249.0 | 217.5 | 181.5 | 161.0 |   31.5 |
|   M 4 x 100 Medley  | 267.0 | 239.5 | 199.5 | 177.0 |   27.5 |
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+
|   W 100 Freestyle   | 270.0 | 256.5 | 206.5 | 187.0 |   13.5 |
|   M 100 Freestyle   | 285.0 | 269.5 | 208.5 | 194.0 |   15.5 |
|   W 200 Butterfly   | 298.0 | 281.5 | 214.5 | 200.0 |   16.5 |
|   M 200 Butterfly   | 310.0 | 289.5 | 221.5 | 209.0 |   20.5 |
|   W 100 Backstroke  | 316.0 | 298.5 | 235.5 | 216.0 |   17.5 |
|   M 100 Backstroke  | 325.5 | 311.5 | 243.0 | 223.0 |   14.0 |
|     W 100 Medley    | 328.5 | 325.5 | 250.0 | 236.0 |    3.0 |
|     M 100 Medley    | 359.5 | 331.5 | 250.0 | 236.0 |   28.0 |
|   W 200 Freestyle   | 365.5 | 353.5 | 255.0 | 236.0 |   12.0 |
|   M 200 Freestyle   | 375.5 | 361.5 | 269.0 | 241.0 |   14.0 |
|    W 50 Butterfly   | 381.5 | 377.5 | 273.0 | 252.0 |    4.0 |
|    M 50 Butterfly   | 399.0 | 387.5 | 278.5 | 256.0 |   11.5 |
|  W 100 Breaststroke | 410.0 | 396.5 | 295.5 | 256.0 |   13.5 |
|  M 100 Breaststroke | 413.0 | 408.5 | 310.5 | 263.0 |    4.5 |
| X 4 x 100 Freestyle | 439.0 | 422.5 | 330.5 | 277.0 |   16.5 |
|     W 400 Medley    | 446.0 | 427.5 | 351.5 | 281.0 |   18.5 |
|     M 400 Medley    | 453.0 | 443.5 | 356.5 | 290.0 |    9.5 |
+---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+