The 32 Most Valuable Swimmers At Men’s NCAA’s, Part II

This is a two-part article.  For part one, click here

Yesterday, we ran through the first half of the 32 most valuable/important swimmers at the upcoming Men’s NCAA Championships.  Just as a reminder, here’s the gist of the rankings…

This isn’t a ranking of “which swimmer is fastest” or how a particular swimmer is going to do, it’s just how valuable/important that individual is to their respective team next week.  There are so many key athletes, and you could make a great argument to move most of these guys up or down a few spots.  We didn’t have a hard-and-fast method in choosing, and there weren’t many extreme calculations/metrics done (though some numbers were crunched) ; we wanted to move this away from being strictly a statistical measure of “worth”.  Ultimately, these were decided by a combination of a few factors:

-Estimated individual finishes/point totals.
-Relay value is critical.
-What happens to the team if that swimmer can’t compete?  Is the team completely screwed without him?  Or does the team that have a reliable/fast “replacement”?
-Slight weight towards the teams that are likely to finish higher in the rankings (hurts guys like Joao De Lucca, strengthens the argument for guys from Michigan/Cal/etc).

To recap, here’s our 32 through 17…

32. Clay Youngquist – Texas
31. Austin Surhoff – Texas
30. Seth Stubblefield – Cal
29. Anders Lie Nielsen – Michigan
28. Conor Jaeger – Michigan
27. Jonathan Boffa – NC State
26. Mitchell Freidemann – Arizona
25. Miguel Ortiz – Michigan
24. Sean Fletcher – Michigan
23. Kyle Whitaker – Michigan
22. Brad deBorde – Florida
21. Pavel Sankovich – Florida State
20. Marcin Tarczynski – Cal
19. Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or – Arizona
18. Eric Ress – Indiana
17. Sebastien Rousseau – Florida

And now for part deux:

16. Dimitri Colupaev – USC, (2 A-Finals, 4 relay swims)
15. Cristian Quintero – USC, (3 A-Finals, 2-3 relay swim)

It was tough to choose between this pair of USC Olympians.  Colupaev has more relay value for the Trojans (you’ll definitely see him on four, Quintero could be on anywhere between 2-4 for USC), but Quintero has demonstrated he’s elite across all three individual events.  While Quintero had one of the best all-around meets of the conference championship season (1:33.2/4:13.3/14:51, and dropped a sub-43 100 free leadoff), it’s clear Colupaev has yet to show what he can really do.  The German mid-distance specialist is buried in the psych sheet in his three events, only cracking the circle seeded heats in the 200 (seeded 14th), which he was runner-up in a year ago (and was winning at the final wall).  He’s also competing in the 100, where he’s capable of making the A-Final with a good swim (he’s been 42.9 individually), and the 500 (more of an unknown, but there’s always a chance he could score).

It will be interesting to see what Dave Salo does with USC’s relays this weekend.  The freestyle relays are pretty set in stone, but does Salo try to get all three of his best swimmers on one of the medleys?  Vlad Morozov has put up elite times in all four strokes (though fly is his worst), Colupaev can fake a pretty good breaststroke to go with his superb freestyle, and Quintero showed potential of a sub-42 relay split.  I’m thinking USC sticks with Luca Spinazzola and Maclin Davis to complement Morozov and Colupaev, but pushing Quintero on that relay is something to consider.

14. Sam Rairden – Tennessee
2 A-Finals, 1 B-Final, 4 relay swims

What a difference a year (and a coaching change) makes.  That goes for the entire Tennessee team.  Some quick numbers to compare last year’s Tennessee team with the one swimming in Indianapolis this week…

• 2012 Tennessee finished 22nd last year at NCAA’s, scoring just 34 points.
• Just 6 of those 34 points were scored by swimmers.  2013 Tennessee is seeded to score 113 points from swimming alone.
• Only one 2012 Volunteer relay scored (and they finished 16th).  2013 Tennessee has 3 relays seeded in the top 9.

With essentially the same roster, the Volunteer men have thrived in their first full year as part of the combined program under coach Matt Kredich.  They do have two new swimmers contributing at the NCAA-level (freshmen Sean Lehane and Aberg Ledjstrostav), but they account for just 4 of the 20 Tennessee relay swims.  Everything else has come from internal improvements, with Rairden being the most notable example.

Based on expectations versus results, you could argue Rairden had the best meet of any swimmer at SEC’s.  He went personal bests in his four flat-start races (he led off the 800 free relay) en route to a trio of top three individual finishes, and comes into NCAA’s seeded to score well in his individual events (10th in the 100 fly, 8th in the 100 back, 7th in the 100 free).  His one poor swim came in the last event of the weekend, when he split 44.31 on the 400 freestyle relay (not sure why he was that slow, considering he went 42.7 from a flat-start earlier that night).  With maybe two or three expectations, he’s fast enough to grab a spot on all five relays for every team in the country, capable of dropping a 21 low backstroke leg, or a 1:33 on the 800 freestyle relay.

A potentially big hurdle for Rairden: the NCAA schedule is much more compact than the five-day SEC lineup he had a few weeks ago.  Unless Tennessee adjusts their relay strategy, Rairden could (and–quite frankly–should) have seven swims on day two: 2x 200 medley relays, 2x 100 backstrokes, 2x 100 flys, and the 800 free relay.  Tom Shields had that schedule last year, and even he looked like he was running on empty on that last swim (his 800 free leadoff was a full second slower than in 2011).  We’ll see how Rairden handles the workload.

13. Joao De Lucca – Louisville
2 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

Led by De Lucca and the recently-graduated Carlos Almeida, Louisville was a pleasant surprise at NCAA’s last year, placing top 8 in three relays and finishing 9th overall as a team.  The Cardinals lose some important relay guys (Brendan Andrews, Tim Collins, Almeida) that will hurt them in the team race, but De Lucca is back for Louisville, and all signs point to him improving on his individual finishes (3rd in the 200, 7th in the 100) from 2012.  He smashed a pair of Louisville and overall Big East records last fall in the 100 and 200 free, achieving ‘A’ qualifying standards in the process.  Those times have him seeded 3rd and 1st, respectively, and even though the top two finishers in the 200 are returning (Dax Hill and Dimitri Colupaev), a lot people (including yours truly) are picking De Lucca to hang with the leaders and out-charge them over the final 50 for the win (he closed in 23.11 at Big Easts).  De Lucca was a bit off his season bests at Big Easts, but his individual times of 42.4 and 1:33.1 hold up really well for someone who was likely not at his peak.

In the overall context of this article, De Lucca’s value measure is lower than most of the comparable swimmers because Louisville is further down the team list.  De Lucca will keep the Cardinals in scoring contention with his four relay swims (particularly the 200 and 400 free relays), but the Cardinals were hit hard by graduation; De Lucca is the only returning member of the Cardinals’ medley relays that both placed in the top 8 a year ago.

12. Bruno Ortiz – Michigan
3 B-Finals, 4 relay swims

I’m not going to beat a dead horse and run through more year-to-year numbers of another Michigan swimmer.  Ortiz had a better meet than most of his teammates relay-wise, but he was DQed in the 100 breast after being seeded 4th in the event (note: he added over a second in the race, and wouldn’t have made it back anyway).  The sophomore had a fantastic Big Ten’s this year, winning both sprint freestyles, getting two individual ‘A’ cuts, and swimming critical legs on four title-winning relays.

As of now, he’s Michigan’s #1 sprint freestyler, and has more pure breaststroke speed for the 200 medley relay than Richard Funk (Michigan’s #1 100 and 200 breaststroker).  Individually, he is seeded to score 32 points individually this weekend.  Anything less than that from Ortiz could be a bad sign for Michigan.  They have replacements if he’s not swimming well (Funk for the 200 medley, Zach Turk on the end of the 400 medley), but those individual points are huge for the Wolverines.

11. Kevin Cordes – Arizona
2 A-Finals, 2 relay swims

Relative to his competition, Cordes might be the fastest swimmer in the entire meet.  If this were a measure of the most valuable or important single swim, he’d be at or near the top of the list.  He’s already the American record holder in the 100 and 200 breast, and his breaststroke leg on the medleys instantly gives Arizona a chance to win.  Just look at the breaststroke legs from the top 400 medleys from last year’s NCAA’s and this year’s conference meets…

Cordes gives Arizona an immediate full second advantage over the next best team.  I think Shields’ fly on the 400 medley is the only other leg that turns the tables that much.

I still remember wondering if Cordes would struggle to improve this season after having such a superb freshman campaign.  My question was answered with a swift, resounding “no” when the Wildcat sophomore smashed the American record in both breaststrokes in Austin, Texas this December at U.S. Nationals.  It’s mind-blowing to think about, but what are Cordes’ next steps on the short course level if he breaks Damir Dugonjic’s bodysuit-aided 100 breast NCAA record (50.86)?  Splitting under 23 seconds?  Challenging the 50/1:50 barriers?  Going sub-50 on the 400 medley?  Those are times you’re only supposed to go in a video game.  He should run away with a pair of titles this weekend. Cordes’ closest challenger individually is currently Indiana’s Cody Miller, but I don’t think he can duplicate his 51.5 and 1:51.0 from Big Tens.  There’s not much else to say; he’s the best there is right now.

Even with the likely 40 individual points and the massive leg up his relay swims provide, I couldn’t put him in the top ten on this list because he doesn’t have a third event, he only gives Arizona a lift (though it is substantial) on two relays, and one of the three next best breaststrokers in the country (Carl Mickelson) is on his team.  The only guy I could see him jumping is the next one on the list…

10. Giles Smith – Arizona
2 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

The four biggest reasons Giles cracks the top 10:

1) His double A-Final potential.  Giles was runner up in the 100 fly a year ago, and dropped almost a half second in the 100 free to make the B-Final.  His freestyle has vastly improved from a year ago, landing him the 6th overall seed in the 100.
2) History points to a great NCAA meet.  He had a very good NCAA’s a year ago, and he managed to post some solid times at PAC-12’s earlier this month, despite going through the meet unshaved.
3) With another year of work and the graduation of Adam Small, he’s established himself as Arizona’s #1 freestyler.
4) He’s in charge of holding off Tom Shields on a pair of relays that Arizona should win.  He just can’t chance pulling a Puninski like he did at PAC-12’s (it wasn’t called), or let this happen on the 400 medley.

9. Marcin Cieslak – Florida
3 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

Here are results of two swimmers from 2012 NCAA’s:

Swimmer #1: 2nd in the 200 IM, 3rd in the 100 fly, 3rd in the 200 fly.  Dropped at least 0.8 seconds from his seed time in each event.  One of only three swimmers to place be top 3 in three individual events.
Swimmer #2: Was slower than his conference meet relay splits in 5 out of 5 relay swims at NCAA’s.  Pulled from two of those relays in finals as a result.

I’m not quite sure how, but both of those are Marcin Cieslak.  He had an awesome meet individually last year, but he had some pretty poor swims across the board on relays.  At SEC’s last month, he was a three two event winner (he was DQ’ed in the 200 IM, but he touched first in the heat), and swam on four relays for the Gators.  Strictly on paper, it looks like he’s poised for a big NCAA meet once again, where he’ll challenge for titles in his three individuals and be a part of four Florida relays that are much improved from a year ago (four seeded in the top 8).  But relays are double the points, and in order to stay in the picture for a team trophy, Florida needs Swimmer #1 to find another gear for those swims.

8. Dax Hill – Texas
2 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

Hill is looking to finish his Longhorn career on a high note after an underwhelming summer season.   He was widely considered to be a darkhorse candidate to qualify for the 4×100 or 4×200 relay squads, but didn’t make it out of prelims in either event.  That performance doesn’t seem to have phased Hill; he’s already been under 1:34 in the 200, and has beaten his 100 free time from last season.  Dax will be the go-to sprinter on relays for the Longhorns, and he’ll also be looking to cap things off with another memorable 200 freestyle; he gave us one of the more thrilling races of last year’s meet when he came back and beat Dimitri Colupaev of USC to win the event.

Eddie Reese’s relay choices for Dax could be an important factor in his quest to repeat as 200 free champion.  Texas’ relays are quite a bit more fragile than normal, and coach Eddie Reese doesn’t have the same luxury of rotating swimmers between prelims and finals.  With Texas’ big question mark in the breaststroke and the graduation of Jimmy Feigen, Dax will be play a bigger role on the medley relays this year.  He’ll definitely anchor the 400 medley on day one, but it’s up for debate whether he’ll be on the 200 medley.  He swam a pretty quick breaststroke leg on it at Big XII’s, but it might be ill-advised to leave him on it.  If Eddie sticks with that order, Dax will have to open up the second night session with the 200 medley relay, then follow that up with a pair of 200 freestyles in the same session.  Texas might be inclined to pull him off the 200 medley in favor of Charlie Moore, who split 24.0 on an exhibition relay at their conference meet.

7. Aaron Wayne – Stanford, (2 A-Finals, 1 B-Final, 4 relay swims)

TIMEOUT.  Before you think I’m crazy for putting Wayne over Hill, consider the following:

• Wayne outscored Hill last year individually 30-29, despite only swimming in two events.
• In place of his third individual event, Wayne led off the 800 freestyle relay, and went fast enough to place 3rd in the 200 free (that was a move I still don’t totally understand).
• This comparison of their relay splits from last season:

For the past five seasons, Stanford has had one sprinter come out of the wood work, score big points, and effectively carry the sprint relay load.  In 2009 it was Alex Coville, followed by David Dunford in 2010, Jake Allen in 2011, and Aaron Wayne a year ago.  For the record, I think Andrew Saeta is that guy this year (no pressure, dude).  After establishing himself as a great relay swimmer back in 2011, Wayne put the team on his back in what was otherwise a so-so NCAA’s for the Cardinal, going beast mode on relays and making big strides in individual events.  He was top 5 in both sprint frees, and his 800 free leadoff was the fastest in the field and would have been good enough for 3rd in the 200 free.  Minus David Nolan’s 400 medley leadoff, he was the fastest swimmer for the Cardinal (relatively speaking) on all 9 of his relay swims, twice breaking 18.6 (the only guy to do that), and going under 41.8 three times (Feigen was the only one under that barrier more than once).  Stanford is really thin in the relays this year, and Wayne will probably tally up another eight relay swims to go with his [expected] six individuals.

Don’t let PAC-12 results fool you… Wayne was unshaved and at the very beginning of his rest cycle.  Expect two A-Finals in the sprints, a high B-Final in the 100 fly (he’s opting of this over the 200 free to save some energy), and some big relay swims for Stanford.

6. Cody Miller – Indiana
3 A-Finals, 3 relay swims

Cody Miller five spots ahead of Kevin Cordes?  He might not be on Cordes’ level in the breaststrokes, but Miller’s versatility, additional relay value, and surprising development of a third event are the reasons he’s all the way up at #6.  Miller claimed Swimmer of the Meet honors at his home pool in Bloomington after an impressive four day run where he tallied three individual titles, three school records, a pair of Big Ten Conference records, and a number of skeptics wondering if there were extra dolphin kicks in play (I haven’t seen any of the races from Big Ten’s, so I won’t pass judgment).  Extra dolphin kicks or not, Miller posted some absurd times, including the fastest ever 200 breast in NCAA competition (Cordes’ American record was at U.S. Nationals).

I’d argue his most surprising swims of the B1G Championships wasn’t his 200 breast, but rather his 200 IM and fly/free legs on relays.  He dropped almost 2.5 seconds from his previous best, and now he’s the top seed at NCAA’s with a time (1:41.85) that would have won the meet a year ago.  I suppose to go 1:41.8, you have to be pretty good at the other strokes, too; Miller dropped a solid 50 freestyle (19.2) and fly split (20.4) on Indiana’s 200 relays, as well.

5. Marcelo Chierighini – Auburn
2 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

Chierighini was lightning-fast at SEC’s, posting the nation’s top time in the 50 (18.85) and second-fastest in the 100 (41.60).  He was also a member of four title-winning relays that are all seeded in the top 3 this weekend at NCAA’s.

Sprint dominance and great relays seems like par for the course for Auburn, yes?  Well, it’s hard to believe, but the Tigers are actually short on sprinters this year, and Chierighini is far and away the best one they’ve got (that doesn’t include Kyle Owens).  Check out the number of sprinters Auburn has below certain thresholds…

The moral of the story: Auburn’s ability to compete for relay titles rests entirely on Chierighini’s and Kyle Owens’ shoulders.  If he’s sub-19 and sub-42 again individually, look out for the Tigers.

Why is he only 5th?  Despite flirting with the 20-second barrier in a 50 fly, he’s never been able to finish a 100, so doesn’t really have a third event.

4. David Nolan – Stanford
3 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

Again, no homer-ism here.  Even if Nolan has a meet like he did last year, he’ll still outscore Chierighini individually by around 15 points.  He could be on any of the five relays this week (that 800 needs some help), and he’s elite in all four strokes.  He led off the 400 medley at PAC-12’s, but that was primarily because Stanford’s next backstroke option Matthew Swanston just didn’t have any speed yet.  Swanston has been under 47 plenty of times, and he’s been trending towards sprint training this year.  Don’t surprised if coach Ted Knapp elects to test out different relay options in prelims and finals.

Nolan was under enough pressure at this meet last year to form diamonds, and it showed.  The then-freshman didn’t swim terribly by any stretch of the imagination (three top 3 finishes, lifetime bests in the 100 and 200 backstrokes), but he was well below everyone’s (including his own) expectations.  His freestyle looked off all weekend, and he it seemed like he was running out of gas by the end of the meet.

It’s an old cliché, but experience is the best teacher, and Nolan seems to have learned a lot.  Nolan is in a much better state physically and mentally than he was a year ago.  I picked against him in the 100 and 200 back earlier this week, but I still like him in the IM, and he has already basically matched his 50 and 100 free times from 2012.

The most important thing Stanford’s staff can do for Nolan this week: keep him off the 400 medley relay on Thursday morning.  They elected to put him on it last year for some reason (it was his third swim of the morning), and even though he didn’t max himself out, I think he paid for it the rest of the meet.  NCAA’s is won with sprinters, but the meet itself is a test of endurance that more resembles a ten-round title fight.  Every swim at NCAA’s is like taking a punch, and if you limit the number of hits you take/swims you do, it makes a world of difference in the later portion of the competition.

3. Kyle Owens – Auburn
3 A-Finals, 4 relay swims

You could see Kyle Owens’ value from his potential as three event A-Finalist, his status as one of the nation’s top backstrokers, and his surprisingly good/borderline great freestyle capabilities.  Or you can just look at the backstroke events on Auburn’s top times list.

There’s no Plan B for the Tigers; Owens is virtually irreplaceable.  Some other quick notes (this is going to be a short one):

– He hit three individual ‘A’ standards at SEC’s, and doubles as Auburn’s best sprinter not named “Marcelo”, capable of 18.8/sub-42 splits on the sprint freestyle relays.
– His calling card has been the 100 back, where he has A-Finaled the last two years, but he’s also been top 8 in the 200 IM.
– Although he just cracked 1:40 at SEC’s, he’s actually never made an A-Final in the 200 back.
– I’d argue he is the best backstroke swimmer in the country.  He’s never been a great kicker like Shields or Nolan, and you’ll likely notice he’s the first one to surface off every wall.

2. Tom Shields – Cal, (3 A-Finals, 4 relay swims, ~800 yards of underwaters)
1.  Vlad Morozov – USC, (3 A-Finals, 4 potentially absurd relay swims)

Before anybody thinks I didn’t pick Shields because he swims for Cal and I graduated from that school across the Bay, just remember: I’m picking a USC swimmer #1.  I don’t like the Trojans any better than the Bears.  For the record (and this is a bit of a cop-out), this order is contingent on Vlad being somewhere close to 100% ready for this meet (Russian World Championship Trials are in mid-April, I believe).

Without even competing next week, Shields would go down as one of the best NCAA swimmers ever.  He’s a cut above everyone else in the 100 fly, and his underwater prowess has helped him be a force in anything that doesn’t include breaststroke.  The difference between him and the competitions isn’t the dive or the first wall… it’s the last two.  Nobody in the NCAA stays under for as long or as effectively as Shields does over the final 50.  I’ve already picked him to win three events this week, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Bears won at least a pair of relays thanks to Shields.

If you couldn’t tell, I don’t like Cal, but seeing Shields do things like this or this is still pretty cool.

But…

When Vlad is Russian-cyborg-mode-Vlad like he was last winter at the World Short Course Championships in Istanbul, he makes everyone else look like they’re not moving.  Later in the meet, he left Anthony Ervin and Luca Dotto in the dust, and then absolutely laid the wood on a field that included Matt Grevers and Jimmy Feigen.  There’s only one other guy in his stratosphere in the sprints (Chierighini on a good day), and he alone puts USC in great position to win at least a pair of relays.  Shields is unquestionably the best at what he does on one relay (400 medley), and great at whichever other three he is put one. But Morozov has the opportunity to have upwards of four relays where he is competing in his best events.

With swims like he had at Short Course Worlds, there has been a lot of hype about Vlad breaking Cesar Cielo’s sprint records, and maybe cracking the 18.0/40.0 barriers on relays.  I don’t think he’ll break 18 (he’ll probably lead off their 200 free relay, and he will be coming from back in the pack in choppy water on the 200 medley relay),  but if he’s at top form, the others could be in jeopardy… That’s just insane to even think about.  The real question is whether or not he will be saving anything for Russian World Championship Trials.  From a purely selfish standpoint, I hope we get to see him leave it all in the pool this weekend.