2013 Men’s NCAA Top-25 Prediction: 211 Points

We still have a few more events to run through, but we wanted to run through our picks for the top 25 finishing teams at this meet.

211. That’s the magic number this year. Michigan has a 211 point advantage on everyone else in the field based on seed. Even if you’re someone who doesn’t believe in scoring psych sheets, and thinks that psych sheet scoring is totally irrelevant to the meet, it’s gotta be hard to ignore a 211 point advantage.

Break that down into more comprehensible numbers, though. If Michigan finishes exactly on seed, Cal has to make up approximately 11.7 points per event according to seed. Another way to look at it is Cal has to be 70 points closer, per day, than seeded to Michigan.

In bite-size pieces, it doesn’t seem so illogical, especially when you look more closely at the psych sheet.  Will Hamilton was 9th at NCAA’s last year in the 500. He’s not seeded to score this year. If he repeats his place, that’s already a +9, without making any huge leaps. In the 200 IM, Cal is seeded to score 18. With just guys they return from last year’s squad (Hinshaw and Tarczynski), again repeating places from last year they’d be at 25.5 already. Throw in Prenot, who could score as the 12th seed, and you might get to 28.5.

The meet-opening 200 free relay. Cal seeded 7th, for 24 points. They’re the defending champs in that relay, losing only one piece. Is it unreasonable to think that they’ll take 2nd place, get 34 points, and go +10? Surely it isn’t. Then again, Michigan could also jump up and take the win, which is +6 as compared to seed.

The Wolverines, though, control their own destiny, so-to-speak, at this meet. If they can hold their lofty seed-spots, they’ll win this meet. Can’t see anybody else getting to 511 points this year. Cal and Stanford (think: four diving qualifiers), meanwhile, the only other two teams that I can see having the numbers to make this a race, will need some help.

There’s plenty of teams that can play spoiler at this meet. Teams like USC, who if they win a relay means that neither Cal nor Michigan can get those big bonus points. Teams like Texas in the 800 free relay, or Arizona and Auburn in the medleys (where Michigan is seeded first).

Head-to-head, between Cal, Stanford, and Michigan, the races to watch for big swings: 200 IM, 50 free, and the 200 fly. Michigan and Stanford will also have a huge advantage over Cal in the distance freestyles, and there’s not a ton the Golden Bears can do about it (though, I have an inkling that Adam Hinshaw and Jeremy Bagshaw might still score in that race, despite being below the “Invite” line).

Cal has to have their perfect meet (they have in the past), and Michigan has to have a bad NCAA meet (they have in the past) for this to go anywhere but to the Wolverines. We made this mistake last year, and got a “shoutout” in the Golden Bears’ year-end scrapbook for it, but we’re doing it again. We’ll take Michigan for the win, but not by 211 points.

It will be close. So close, that if Tyler Messerschmidt and Sam Metz were swimming for Cal this season, we might pick it the other way around. (Calling it close gives us an ‘out’ when we’re wrong, right?)

Here’s our top 25 picks, with a quick explanation of what needs to go right for each team to move up.

1. Michigan Wolverines (Seeded Points: 510) – The Wolverine relays need to show up; they’re not fighting just Cal, they’re fighting some stiff challenges from the teams that will finish in the 4-8 range as a team. Dylan Bosch needs to score somewhere high; maybe not even as high as his crazy-good seeds. Just somewhere high. The Wolverines are on the high-end of a few ranges that see only a few tenths to slide many spots in either direction. The pressure is on them: they have a lot further to go down than they do to go up.

2. Cal Golden Bears (Seeded Points: 290) – For Cal to make up the ground and take the points, they need the guys who didn’t score at NCAA’s last year to do damage: Josh Prenot needs to score in three events, for example. They need to pick Michigan off in key events, like the 200 breaststroke where Josh Prenot and Trevor Hoyt are seeded just behind Michigan’s Richard Funk. Even that might not be enough. A lot of the difference between “seeded points” and “needed points” for Cal will have to be in the relays, and without Tyler Messerschmidt they’re down four vital swims out of the 20 they need to shift and shimy around to make the relays work.

3. Stanford Cardinal (Seeded Points: 183) – Stanford is the only team of these top five who will have any diving points coming at NCAA’s. That’s because they have qualified more divers (4) than any other team in the country for the meet except Indiana (who also has 4).

Now, nobody is pretending that four qualifiers will turn into 12 scores. Kristian Ipsen should be good for 50 points himself (remember that last year, when he was 10th on the platform, he dove conservatively to avoid injury prior to the Olympic Trials). If the other three guys combined can muster up another 20 combined the Cardinal will be happy. Beyond that, Stanford didn’t look nearly as rested at Pac-12’s as they have in the past. Aaron Wayne missed the A-Final at that meet in the 50 free, and he should be in the top 8 at NCAA’s. This Stanford roster continues to be one that has more depth than you realize until you start counting scorers. Their relays average seeds between 7th and 8th – that will be a key for the upward mobility of Stanford.

4. Texas Longhorns (Seeded Points: 151) – The Longhorns have two divers qualified for this meet: Will Chandler, who red-shirted last season, and Cory Bowesrsox, a freshman who was 7th on the 1-meter at the USA Diving National Championships in 2011. That will help in a year where the Longhorns’ swimming teams aren’t quite as they good for the last 5 years (where they never placed lower than 2nd). Dax Hill needs to have good relay swims for this team, and some of these sprinters like Charlie Moore and Tripp Cooper need to do something to get some points and become supporting stars for Hill. It looks like Clay Youngquist is back on freshman form, so he could be north of 40 individual points.

5. Florida Gators (Seeded Points: 299) – This Florida team, thanks to the return of Sebastien Rousseau and the addition of one of the country’s best freshmen Pavel Werner, doesn’t have a whole lot of holes left in its lineup. We won’t see a lot of points from them in the 100 back. The pressure is on deBorde to sneak a few out of the 100 (he’ll be great in the 50). But they make up for that in races like the 400 IM or the 200 fly, where 3+ A-finalists are easily a possibility. This is also a much more experienced team than last year. The Gators and Texas for 4-5 could flip-flop either way.

6. USC Trojans (Seeded Points: 259) – The USC relays are outstanding, and Vlad will score big individual points. They need Alex Lendrum, a senior, to help boost them in the individual scoring, though. Between Cristian Quintero and Chad Bobrosky, USC’s distance group should be their highest scoring behind their “Vlad” group.

7. Arizona (Seeded Points: 223) – Arizona graduated a lot of points from last year, but fortunately their relays stayed quite in-tact. Nick Popov is the key to their medleys on the anchor leg if the Wildcats want to repeat in the 200 and get the big points that go along with it.

 8. Auburn Tigers (Seeded Points: 269) – With mid-year addition Arthur Mendes swimming well, and Kyle Owens looking like one of the best dual-event backstrokers in the country, things are coming together nicely for the Tigers. John Santeiu should give them diving points this year as the SEC platform champion, despite him not making top 16 on any of the three disciplines next year.

9. Indiana Hoosiers (Seeded Points: 205) – The Hoosiers match Stanford with 4 divers in this meet, and should get about the same total scoring output. Eric Ress should finish way higher than seeded in the backstrokes, if NCAA’s two years ago is any indication (he’s only seeded to score 27 points between three events – including 10th in the 100). If Daniel Kanorr stays hot, it’s easy to see this team going as high as 7th.

10. Ohio State Buckeyes (Seeded Points: 101) – The Buckeyes were 12th at last year’s meet, graduated only 12 individual points, and brought back Tim Phillips who will be at least that good. If we assume their season plan was similar this year to what it was last year, then it will be tough to say this team places any lower than 12th again this year. Big relay points potential, so we’ll pick them two spots higher at 10th. Their diver Shane Miszkiel only scored 11 points at NCAA’s last year, but should be good for twice that this year.

11. Georgia Bulldogs (Seeded Points: 129) – Georgia has a lot of individual scorers, but they need their relays to place better than seeded. Freshman Chase Kalisz is swimming his first NCAA Championship meet, but he’s an Olympic Trials finalist who trained with Michael Phelps, so he’ll handle the pressure just fine. 12. Tennessee Volunteers (Seeded Points: 114) – Matt Kredich has the Volunteer men swimming well. Expect them to be easily as high as their seeding scores them to be, no matter how much of a jump it seems from their 22nd-place last season; their women were on fire, after all. Tennessee has one diving qualifier.

13. Florida State Seminoles (Seeded Points: 135) – The Seminoles relays were very fast mid-season, and very-fast again at ACC’s. They’ll have to do it a third time to push for the top 10. Pavel Sankovich’s addition seriously amps-up their individual scoring potential. The Seminoles have a diving qualifier to add as well.

14. Virginia Tech Hokies (Seeded Points: 51) – The Hokies got three divers into this meet, and all of them are capable of A-finals in at least one discipline. Diving could nearly equal their swimming points; the Virginia Tech relays should place well also. They’ve got some solid pieces that feel like they belong high in the B-Final in the medleys.

15. Louisville Cardinals (Seeded Points: 59) – The Cardinals have to do better than 59 individual points, especially with Joao de Lucca clearly not tapering for Big Easts. This team isn’t as good as the one that made the top-10 last year, but they still do have a lot of key pieces in their breaststroking and freestyle groups.

16. North Carolina State (Seeded Points: 95) – The Wolfpack swam lights-out at the ACC Championships, their unfortunate relay DQ not-withstanding. Expect them to come back down to earth a little bit at NCAA’s, though a team like them with 5-relay scoring potential can’t slide too far.

17. Wisconsin Badgers (Seeded Points: 56) – Michael Weiss, who is the bulk of  Wisconsin’s scoring, has some high seeds to live up to in the 400 IM and the 500 free. Counter-balance that, though, with the fact that he should score in his third event (the 200 breaststroke) which he’s seeded only 29th.

18. Missouri Tigers (Seeded Points: 32) – An unfortunate inner-ear injury at SEC’s to David Bonucchi hasn’t kept him from being lights-out in diving. Added to great breaststroke and distance groups, and Missouri has a lot of scoring potential this year.

19. Penn State Nittany Lions (Seeded Points: 55) – The Nittany Lions are without freshman Shane Ryan, which is too bad because his sprinting abilities were sort of a key piece to this Penn State team. They still have good medleys, and Sean Grier + Nate Savoy are solid individual scorers (Grier is seeded 3rd in the 100 back).

20. Arizona State Sun Devils (Seeded Points: 3) – Exit two All-American divers, and enter two more. Riley McCormick and former USC Trojan Harrison Jones gives this Sun Devil team a lot of potential on the boards. Add in butterflier Alex Coci, who scored 18 individual points at NCAA’s, and this Arizona State team could repeat their top-20 finish from last year.

21. Harvard (Seeded Points: 46) – Chuck Katis was swimming through Ivy’s, and should score a bunch individually. Harvard has a deep sprint group that should be scoring points both individually and as a relay.

22. North Carolina (Seeded Points: 23) – Have to ride the hot hand. After the way their women moved up race-after-race last weekend, we presume that the men will be able to at least improve upon their seeded points (which have them 25th coming in).

23. Texas A&M (Seeded Points: 40) –  The Aggies only have free relays at this year’s meet, and they’re missing the diving element that they’ve had a lot of other years. They do have John Dalton, though, who as a senior has a shot at a few A-finals.

24. Minnesota (Seeded Points: 35) – No Kyler Fan Swol hurts this team’s standings this year, but Derek Toomey leading the sprint group is maybe the surprise of the year in college swimming. Their two divers should be good for a handful, though maybe not a mitful, of points.

25. Purdue (Seeded Points: 21) – Purdue diving is back, with two qualifiers, but for a change that’s not the story here. Led by individual scorers Lyam Dias and Danny Tucker, who held up well in a thick Big Ten meet, Purdue has the best swimming program we’ve seen from them in years.

Teams that could just as easily take those last 5 spots, but I couldn’t figure out who to leave off: Virginia, Brown, Notre Dame, LSU