Olivier Poirier-Leroy is a former National level swimmer from the beautiful west coast of BC. In feeding his passion for swimming, he has developed YourSwimBook.com: a comprehensive tool that designed for swimmers to track and analyze their results.
With 2012 Olympic bronze medalist Peter Vanderkaay hanging up the swimsuit, Matt Patton presumably retired as well, World Trials gives some of the promising young mid-distance talent a golden opportunity to make their presence felt on the national scene. The battle will most likely be between Connor and Conor, with a bunch of new blood filling up the rest of the ranks.
The Favorite…
Connor Jaeger is coming off a pair of individual NCAA titles in the 500 and 1,650 yard freestyle and also helped the Wolverines capture a 12th NCAA title. His time of 3:46.93 ranks the fastest heading into trials, and was also a full second faster than he went at trials last year. With that kind of improvement, and some rest Jaeger should be able to get into the low 3:40’s, making him the clear and away favorite. A solid swim at Trials will put himself squarely into the medal contender discussion leading into Worlds.
The Challengers…
Hot on his heels will be former Florida Gator Conor Dwyer, who at Santa Clara was just over a second behind Jaeger, and also about two seconds off the time he swam in London. With some of the front end speed that he displayed in swimming a 49.5 in the 100 at Santa Clara, expect Dwyer to take it out strong with some of that new-found speed thanks to some altitude training (and beyond) with former Michael Phelps coach Bob Bowman.
IX3 Sports’ Charlie Houchin, who swam a 3:48.32 last year at Trials, will need to be faster to qualify for Worlds in this event. In Charlotte he cranked out a 3:50.64, showing some good in-season form.
Club Wolverine’s Ryan Feeley has qualified for the World University Games in the 10km open water, added to his lack of 400m competitive swims this season (the exception being a 4:04 at Summer Juniors) suggest his focus is on the WUG. Fellow Wolverine, Michael Klueh, on the other hand has been swimming the 400 a lot in competition this season, most recently a 3:52 flat at Santa Clara. Klueh has raced this event at Charlotte, Austin, Orlando, as well, telegraphing his focus on this event.
Michael McBroom, who broke 3:50 for the first time at Olympic Trials last year, was only a second off of his best time in Charlotte, suggesting that he is due for a sizable drop. With a 15 minute 1500m, expect McBroom to be bringing it home with authority.
Matt McLean also swam solidly in Charlotte, swimming a 3:51.57 placing behind McBroom and Jaeger. He also won the 200 at that meet, with the 6’6 member of University of Virginia Aquatics swimming a solid mid-season 1:49.03. Whether McLean makes the team will depend if he can best the 3:47.11 he swam in August 2011 at Nationals.
Tyler Clary’s 400 performances this year have been slower compared to his mid-season swims of last year. He swam a pair of 3:52’s at Santa Clara, and though he had a conflict free opportunity to take a run at his best of 3:49.91, he’s opted not to swim the 400 free this season.
17 year old Liam Egan, of Crimson Aquatics, dropped a couple seconds off his 2012 best at Santa Clara. With a full rest it will be interesting to see what he can do with his best time of 3:55.67. Fellow up-and-comer Janardan Burns of the Mission Viejo Nadadores swam a 3:57.05 in Austin, and with a full rest expect him to lower his lifetime best of 3:53.26 in Indy. Distance specialist Chad La Tourette, who missed out on the Olympics last year in the 1500 is looking to capitalize on his new training surroundings at Mission Viejo to get back to his form of 2009 when he swam a 3:46.93.
Predictions
First, here is my top 8, with the times I’d guess for them.
1. Connor Jaeger 3:43.45
2. Conor Dwyer 3:46.65
3. Michael Klueh 3:47.12
4. Matt McLean 3:48.88
5. Charlie Houchin 3:49.02
6. Janardan Burns 3:49.40
7. Chad La Tourette 3:49.92
8. Liam Egan 3:51.12
9. Ryan Feeley 3:52.15
Below is the full top 8 from three members of our team, with the times indicating the athlete’s best performance from January 1, 2010, onward.
| Olivier’s Picks | Matt & Reed’s Picks | Braden’s Picks | |
| 1. | Connor Jaeger, Michigan, 3:46.93 | Conor Dwyer, NBAC/Gator Swim Club, 3:46.24 | Conor Dwyer, NBAC/Gator Swim Club, 3:46.24 |
| 2. | Conor Dwyer, NBAC/Gator Swim Club, 3:46.24 | Connor Jaeger, Michigan, 3:46.93 | Connor Jaeger, Michigan, 3:46.93 |
| 3. | Michael Klueh, Club Wolverine, 3:48.17 | Michael Klueh, Club Wolverine, 3:48.17 | Michael Klueh, Club Wolverine, 3:48.17 |
| 4. | Matt McLean, Virginia, 3:47.33 | Charlie Houchin, IX3, 3:47.98 | Michael McBroom, Texas, 3:49.89 |
| 5. | Charlie Houchin, IX3, 3:47.98 | Michael McBroom, Texas, 3:49.89 | Matt McLean, Virginia, 3:47.33 |
| 6. | Janardan Burns, Mission Viejo, 3:53.26 | Matt McLean, Virginia, 3:47.33 | Charlie Houchin, IX3, 3:47.98 |
| 7. | Chad la Tourette, Mission Viejo, 3:48.76 | Andrew Gemmell, Georgia/NCAP, 3:52.24 | Michael Weiss, Wisconsin, 3:53.62 |
| 8. | Liam Egan, Crimson Aquatics, 3:55.67 | Ryan Feeley, Michigan, 3:49.21 | Jacob Ritter, Texas, 3:53.05 |
| Darkhorse | Darkhorse | Darkhorse | |
| Adam Hinshaw, Cal, 3:53.86 | Zane Grothe, Auburn, 3:52.82 | Reed Malone, New Trier Swim Club, 3:53.35 |
A quick glance back in London 2012:
1. Sun 3:40
2. Park 3:42
3. Vanderkaay 3:44
4. Hao 3:46
Not very much fighting around. This may change in Barcelona, but only behind Sun’s back. One of those fighters, alongside Con(n)or, will definitely be Australian David McKeon who’s style seems to be quite similar to Sun Yang. Even without Agnel and Park, under 3:43 may be needed for a podium place.
Connor Jaeger ahead of Connor Dwyer. Behind Sun Yang it’s very open for the world medals. The young Australians have well swum at their trials. The other Chinese swimmer will be strong too. Jaeger has a chance for a medal if he can swim around 3.43. We’ll see what he can do next week. For Dwyer perhaps a chance too but I still believe his best race for the future is the 200 free. He takes speed with Mr Bowman and has a great training partner with Yannick Agnel. His best race to win world and olympic medals in the next years is the 200 free.
Excuse me. Not easy with all these Conor or Connor! Conor Dwyer!
And I think Park won´t swim Worlds..
Yes. He will not swim in Barcelona.
Wow, no love for McLean.
Jaeger has got to be the favorite because he’s been swimming so well this year and his confidence is unbelievably high. The reason I think he will win is because I believe Dwyer will be focusing mostly on Worlds with his sights on the 200.
This is the only major meet he will ever attend where Agnel won’t swim the 200, so I think he knows this is his best shot to ever win an individual event. With Park and Sun Yang, I don’t know if his confidence to win the 400 at Worlds is as high as in the 200. I think he will have a great 200 this summer with a good 400, and I think he will… Read more »
Mead
Remember that Yang will also swim the 200.. and he already is as fast as he was last year… so probably he will be able to go 1:44 low.. if anyone wants to beat him they will problably need a 1:44 low 1:43 high..
Sun’s PB is just under 1:45 … he could go 1:44 low, but there are a lot of other guys that’s currently in the same range as Sun. He doesn’t hold the same advantage as Agnel. Even without Park you got Lochte (who has swam faster than Sun in the event), Stravius, maybe Hagino, some young Australians. I don’t think Sun is a lock in the 200 at all.
Sun Yang still has everything to prove in the 200 free.
Agreed
And this is his best chance.. but also agree that is also every other swimmer best chance for a Gold medal..
I also believe Sun Yang’s main ambitions are in 200m. He’s not after new WRs. Probably in 800m if it comes easily but what he is really after is victories. He tries to make something unprecedented: take it all from 200m up to the 1500m, almost a straight flush.
Just my feeling.
The 400/800/1500 is a given for Him.. he may try to unify all 3 WR under his name.. and I think if he trained some front speed he will go under 1:44 on 200 free.. I would bet 4 Golds, sub 1:44, sub 3:40 7:30 and 14:35.. he will sacrifice some of his 1500 (He has a huge lead over the world so it is safe for him) endurance to grab the 400 and 800 WR (Which is actually harder to beat)
I Know some people hate BIeldermann.. but his times on that year.. I think even if they were not on suit he would be good enought for a 1:44 flat and a 3:43
Rafael,
There is no grounds for being against Biedermann. The rules were same for everyone. If you don’t like the rule, like wide tires, you should hate the rule – not the best driver. Had Biedermann not a suit on him, someone else would have done it. Some people just need someone to hate cause’ it’s difficult to hate a suit.
It’s not athletes’ fault that FINA failed to prohibit suits early enough. The beauty of swimming is that it is not technical sport and becoming that kind of sport is exactly what FINA must prevent from happening. Having said that, by the way, why swimwear is allowed to extend up to knee? After we’ve seen what improved swimwears… Read more »
Mead
Park Tae Hwan will not be going to Worlds.
If anything, the 400 should provide more chance for an American swimmer to win a minor medal. The 200 minor medals will be hard fought among so many swimmers.
I’m not talking about a minor medal, I said individual champion. I think Dwyer has a better shot in the 200 with no Agnel than he does in the 400 without Park. That’s my opinion, I never said he was the favorite or he’s going to win it, but if there’s an event he can win, I think his best chance is the 200 free. Nuff said.
Ah..individual champion… that goes without saying…
400 free is a lock for Sun Yang. And as Yang is a lot more dominant in the 400 than he is in the 200, of course the chance to win gold for everyone else is better in the 200 than in 400, no matter how small the chance is, as Sun Yang is still favorite in the 200.
Yang will get smoked again in the 200. Too many fast 100 guys who step up in the 200.
smoked? being the Silver medalist is getting smoked??
Who of the 100 guys will be able to go 1:44 for sure?
Jaeger will never leave Michigan. Its also the best distance program in the US
Liam Egan very good, he is a good distance swimmer. I think he can go 3:52.
Insane to believe McLean does not have a 3:44 or 3:45 in him now. I’d bet right now he takes it.
Liam Egan is a BEAST!