SwimSwam Pulse: MacNeil, Smith Most Likely To Sweep Individuals at NCAAs

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

With an absolutely stacked lineup of female swimmers set to compete at NCAAs this season, our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which one of them has the best chance of going three-for-three individually:

Question: Which swimmer has the best chance of winning three individual events at women’s NCAAs?

RESULTS

• Maggie MacNeil – 36.0%
• Regan Smith – 32.7%
• Kate Douglass – 16.6%
• Alex Walsh – 4.6%
• Gretchen Walsh – 4.0%
• Torri Huske – 4.0%
• Other – 2.1%

36 percent of the picks went to Michigan senior Maggie MacNeil, with Stanford freshman Regan Smith not far behind, picking up just under one-third of the votes.

Maggie MacNeil

MacNeil is the lone returning swimmer who won multiple individual titles last season, claiming the 100 free and 100 fly in what was an exciting three-part series with Virginia’s Kate Douglass. Douglass got the better of MacNeil in the 50 free before taking the runner-up spot in the latter two events.

MacNeil’s individual event lineup likely remains the same as last year. She’s the big favorite in the 100 fly, and has a fantastic shot at winning the 50 free and repeating in the 100 free. The Canadian Olympic gold medalist could also threaten for the crown in the 100 back, but seeing as how stacked that race will be this season, it seems unlikely she opts to go that route.

Regan Smith

Smith headlines that 100 back field as the American Record holder in the event, and she holds the same distinction in the 200 back, making her the odds-on favorite for a backstroke sweep. However, she’s got a tall task in front of her in the form of reigning 100 back champ Katharine Berkoff, defending 200 back titleholder Phoebe Bacon, and a slew of others including Alabama’s Rhyan White, Cal’s Isabelle Stadden, and UVA freshman Gretchen Walsh (100 back).

What Smith’s third event will be is up for debate, though it will likely be the 200 fly, the race in which she won Olympic silver last summer. It does conflict with the 200 back on the final day of the meet, but if she’s at her best, she’ll likely have some margin of error in both events. Her personal best time in the 200 back is 1.16 seconds faster than what Bacon went to win the national title last season, while her 200 fly PB is 1.55 seconds faster than the time done by Michigan’s Olivia Carter to claim the 2021 crown.

Kate Douglass 

Douglass was a clear third in the poll with 16.6 percent of votes, as she’s got the ability to win at least five different events at the meet but faces stiff competition in all of them.

Douglass has been the fastest woman in the 200 IM in each of her three collegiate seasons, but has yet to race the event at NCAAs. After the 2020 meet was canceled, she opted to forgo the race at the 2021 nationals, as her and Cavalier teammate Alex Walsh were a lock to go 1-2 in some order. To maximize points, Virginia used Douglass in the 50 free instead, with the chance to score 40 points instead of 37 if both were in the 200 IM. It paid off, as Douglass won the 50, but if she has to go head-to-head with MacNeil in all three of her individual events again this season, the path to three wins is extremely difficult.

One event we may see Douglass enter this season is the 200 breast, where she recently became the #2 performer in history and the fastest in the NCAA this season by over a second and a half (2:03.14).

But with the 200 IM/50 free on Thursday and the 100 free/200 breast on Saturday, Douglass will likely end up in that 100 fly on Friday, where she has to go up against the fastest woman ever in MacNeil. In this conversation, that diminishes her odds of going three-for-three, but you never know.

OTHERS

Alex Walsh, Gretchen Walsh and Stanford freshman Torri Huske picked up around four percent of votes, with all three surefire title challengers in various events but hard-pressed to produce a sweep given the talent in the meet.

Alex Walsh recently revealed that she’ll swim the 200 IM, 400 IM and 200 fly at NCAAs. She’s the defending champion in the 200 IM, leads the national rankings in the 400 IM, and sits second in the 200 fly. At this point, a sweep isn’t out of the question, with the 200 fly being the sophomore’s hardest path.

Her younger sister, Gretchen, has been on fire this season and will be in the mix for wins in the 50 free, 100 free and 100 back. All three events are so rich with talent it would take a sensational performance to pull off the sweep, however.

For Huske, she’s another swimmer with phenomenal versatility. She could swim either the 50 free or 200 IM on Thursday, the 100 fly or 200 free on Friday, and the 100 free or 200 fly on Saturday. Given what she’s been racing frequently this season, she’ll probably swim the 100 free over the 200 fly, and the 100 fly seems like a lock given that she’s finished fourth at the Olympics in the event. On Day 2 (Day 1 of individual events) she could go either way and challenge for the win, but will inevitably have to go through some top names.

Just over two percent of voters selected ‘other.’

UPenn’s Lia Thomas, a trans woman, seems as though she’ll be competing after the NCAA’s statement on Thursday indicating they won’t adopt USA Swimming’s new transgender policy for the meet. Thomas is currently the fastest swimmer in the country in the 200 and 500 free, but ranks eighth in the 1650.

Arizona State’s Emma Nordin, who wasn’t in action last season after the Sun Devils redshirted their entire roster, could be in contention to go three-for-three in the same events as Thomas (which are the same three that UVA’s Paige Madden swept last year).

Heading into conference championship season, Nordin ranks first in the nation in the 1650, second in the 500 and fourth in the 200 free.

Stanford’s Brooke Forde has won the 500 free and 400 IM in the past, but doesn’t quite have that third event where she’s projected to challenge for the victory.

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: How many swimmers will opt to be ‘PRO’ in the ISL this season, giving them a salary but restricting them from racing at certain meets?

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ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE

The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.