Caeleb Dressel concerned me a little on the run-up to U.S. International Team Trials in Greensboro. I know the season was short, but he wasn’t swimming that fast. Still, I predicted solid swims, assuming the 7-time Olympic gold medalist knew what he was doing.
My predictions ahead of U.S Trials:
- 100 fly Prediction – 50.2 – (Dressel final results 50.20)
- 50 free Prediction – 21.3 – (Dressel final results 21.29)
- 100 free Prediction – 47.62 – (Dressel final results 47.79)
- 200 free Prediction – 1:45.8 – (Dressel final results – 0, push, a no-show, breaking my heart!)
- *50 fly? I didn’t make a prediction, but most commenters said 22.6-8. (Dressel final results 22.84.)
At Trials I sat with the Dressel family for a few sessions. They’re fun. Mom cheers like it’s a football game. While I was a little nervous for Caeleb, they were completely chill. It seems they knew he would deliver in Greensboro. That experience makes me a little more bullish about World Champs.
See my Caeleb Dressel 2022 World Championship Predictions:
- 50 free – 21.09 – gold
- 100 free – 47.11 – gold
- 100 fly – 49.44 – for a new world record and the gold
- 50 fly – 22.3 – gold
Relays?
- 4×100 free – gold
- 4×100 medley – gold
- 4×100 mixed medley – gold (for some redemption)
- 4×100 mixed free – silver
- 4×200 free? Nope. I’ve lost all hope for Dressel swimming this.
So, I’m saying 7 gold medals. But who cares what I think. It’s all about what you think. Drop your comments below.
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I feel like making specific predictions for events never works out so I’m going more ‘holistic’.
Individual events: 50 fly, 100 fly, 50 free, 100 free. Dressel is arguably the favourite in all 4, with some having more competition than others. I predict he will win 3 out 4 events. I’m not sure which one he will lose, but basically all but the 50 free have a realistic upsetter.
Relays: 100 free and men’s medley are guaranteed. MMR and MFR are toss ups, but I don’t necessarily see USA being unbeatable in either. I predict he’ll win 1 of those 2, so probably 3 relay medals.
OK so 3 individual gold and 3 relay gold. If not for Chalmers missing… Read more »
Americans cheering for Americans —- always optimistic. I am sure we will see some upsets.
I cheer for Team USA…bc I was Team USA….but I do get this weird sense of excitement when I see any nation top the podium over the US. I love the drama and the endless narrative of loss and redemption. When Team USA didn’t podium in 2020 on the mixed medley, that was just a pin-drop in history for the future. I expect Team USA to respond to that giant goose-egg at Worlds. BUT…if we’re being honest, the ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM is the US’s massive population we are drawing from compared to smaller nations. Smaller nations are always fighting on an uneven battle field. You can’t help but respect what smaller nations do to innovate and compete. If I… Read more »
Speaking of which, predict the lineup for the 4 x 100 meter mixed medley relay.
All Hungarians are GOATED with the SAUCE
For the 3rd most populated country in the world USA supporters put an awful lot on 1 swimmer.!
…we do like our stars, and this is the Dressel era. He’s earned the attention and respect.
Screw it times predictions:
50 free 20.9x, he barely misses the world record though but I have a feeling that this event is why his stroke has changed.
100 free: 47.1x barely holding off a charging Popovici
50 fly: 22.3x
100 fly: 49.5x in a thrilling showdown between him and Milak. I can’t commit to who comes out on top
…everyone is wondering in the back of their heads if Milak will charge on that last 20m for the win. I’ve wondered, but I also don’t think Milak is 100% this year. That’s my calculus
U guys are sleeping on Milak…be careful. I think Caleb will win between 5 and 7 golds. I don’t see them winning the 4MixedMedley.
Also, I think a Milak upset is possible at this point. Don’t forget that worlds are in Hungary (Milaks home). I m a Caleb fan but I also wouldn’t mind a Milak upset in the 100B because it could trigger Dressel like Malchow did to Phelps in 2002, to achieve even greater things.
Be careful with Popovic in the 100Fr
Milak doesn’t look good this year. The training switch was a mistake. He’s washed up.
With no Peaty, the only team that could give the US a run is China if Yan Zibei is on form. Even they don’t match up that well with Regan being +5 on Xu Jiayu, and Yang Zufei being +6 on Dressel
Seriously?
You are going to ask Regan Smith to swim the semifinals of the women’s 50 meter backstroke, the semifinals of the women’s 200 meter butterfly, and the final of the 4 x 100 meter mixed medley relay in the same evening session?
https://www.fina.org/news/2510322/fina-announces-the-competition-schedule-for-the-fina-world-championships-budapest-2022
I think the mixed relays aren’t as valuable so I would very much support giving White an extra shot at a medal to lighten the load on Smith and Curzan. I don’t think the coaches view the mixed relays the same way I do though.
If it’s purely about assembling the fastest relay possible in that final I do think Smith-Fink-Dressel-Huske is the way to go. Even on the tail end of a triple. She did them all season in college, I don’t think the 50 backstroke takes much out of her, and it took 2:09.0 to make the Olympic final which Regan could do on cruise control.
I prefer four fresh swimmers for the 4 x 100 meter mixed medley relay:
MMFF
Armstrong/Murphy
Fink/Andrew
Huske
Curzan
https://www.fina.org/news/2510322/fina-announces-the-competition-schedule-for-the-fina-world-championships-budapest-2022
…see my comment above, re: Milak. But….I did not give full weight to the hometown crowd and the power it can deliver to an elite. If Milak is “on” at Worlds, that’s absolutely a concern for Dressel.
He just swam a 1.53 in Barcelona. The guy is gonna be on, but I know Dressel is gonna be on too. I hope they push each other and we are able to witness another WR
Milak seemed more speedy in season last year.
Has Milak been under 50.0 in the 100 fly either before of after the swims at Tokyo in 2021? I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. Would have to be a very “off” Dressel to go over 50.0 at a major world meet. [Edited because I had left out the word “think,” LOL.]
Dressel hasn’t been under 50 since Tokyo so why would Milak have been?
Am only predicting results, not times or putative WRs
4 individual golds (50/100free; 50/100fly)
Barring a break or missing the bus to the pool; USA wins 4X100 & 4XMED. Hard to debate that 6 golds is fairly “bankable”.
MFR will hinge on whether AUS actually take this one seriously (ie employ Chalmers/MOC) or not as, even minus McKeon/C1, AUS still shades USA on women’s side. If they “pass” on this one then here’s a 7th gold
On paper, USA really should win this one 9.5 times out of 10 but, for whatever reasons, they haven’t managed to get the line-up right over the past 4 years. GBR & AUS do look weaker than Tokyo which should help. Hardest to predict.… Read more »
The question is whether Dressel will swim mixed medley.
US could go with WMMW or MMWW. Any other choices will be dumb as hell.
Regan Smith will have women’s 200 fly semi right before the relay, so I’m leaning towards MMWW, which means Dressel won’t swim.
Agree that MMR is a perpetual condundrum for USA and, to a somewhat lesser degree, AUS with regards to the “do we/don’t we” re utilisation of peak swimmers. Hence this is the trickiest call for me and why I currently lean 7 rather than 8.
Dressel really is a difference maker but the 200 fly really ruins it.
52.20 58.37 56.28 53.58 = 3:40.43 Hunter Fink Huske, Curzan
58.39 58.37 49.50 53.35 = 3:39.61 Curzan Fink Dressel Huske
57.76 58.37 49.50 53.35 = 3:38.98 Smith Fink Dressel Huske
All trials times except Dressel.
If there is a 200 fly, it surely also affects China a lot right?
Dang no free wr!
8 golds at worlds 2022 and 8 golds at worlds 2023.
16 golds in almost one year….
Long live mixed relays…. 🙄
Hi Bobo Gigi, Always love your honest assessments.
You now have tge French version of Michael Phelps in Marchand. Good kid, happy for you and France.