2023 Worlds Champs Previews: Half the All-Time Top 10 List Will Clash in Men’s 1500 Free

/2023 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 – 30, 2023 (pool swimming)
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index

By The Numbers — Men’s 1500 Freestyle

• World Record: Sun Yang, China — 14:31.02 (2012)
• World Junior Record: Franko Grgic, Croatia — 14:46.09 (2019)
• Championship Record: Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy — 14:32.88 (2022)
• 2022 World Champion: Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy — 14:32.88

Buckle up folks, this is a big one. The men’s 1500 freestyle is on par with the women’s 400 free and 200 IM in terms of the level of competition and “can’t miss this” factor.

After a few sleepy years in the post-Sun Yang 1500 free era, the event–and men’s distance swimming–is back with a vengeance. When the championship heat steps up to the blocks in Fukuoka, the win could truly come from anywhere. Half of the top 10 performers are slated to be in the field and all five of them swam their marks in the last 12 months.

Gregorio Paltrinieri: The Veteran

• #2 all-time performer (14:32.80–2022)
• European record holder
• 2022, 2017, 2015 World champion
• 2016 Olympic champion

Gregorio Paltrinieri, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

28-year-old veteran Gregorio Paltrinieri turned in one of the most memorable performances of the 2022 World Championships. He snuck into the 1500 freestyle final in 7th but once he was there, he put on a show. From lane 1, he took the race out hard from the first 100-meters and was ahead of the world record line for the majority of the race. But instead of fading like many expected him to, he continued to extend his lead.

Though he fell off the WR pace in the last 50 meters, the Italian held on for a time of 14:32.88 which is the second fastest performance of all-time, a European record, and a championship record.

In addition to its place in history, the swim showed us two things. First, Paltrinieri is not done in the pool. He’d had a disappointing Olympics, finishing off the 2020 podium in this event after winning gold in 2016. There was speculation that he’d shifted focus to open water. However, he bounced back in a big way with this performance as he not only reclaimed the top step on the podium but he also suddenly made the decade-old world record look vulnerable.

He also showed that it’s possible to beat Bobby Finke‘s race strategy. We’ll talk about Finke in-depth later, but when he shocked the world by winning double gold in Tokyo, it seemed like the veterans of the international scene had no answer for his last 50-meters. Paltrinieri handed Finke–who’d won the 800 free earlier at 2022 Worlds–his first “loss” at a major international meet.

Paltrinieri has the slowest season-best of the main competitors, sitting #11 in the world with a 14:49.02. That’s from the Italian Championships, and it’s hard to read too much into it–this is the only meet he’s swum in 2023, and his first long-course meet since the 2022 European Championships.

Expect him to use the same race strategy in Fukuoka as he did in Budapest. He’ll burst out ahead, and we’ll have to wait to see whether he can maintain the lead, or if one of the other challengers’ attacks will beat him to the wall.

Daniel Wiffen: The New Kid On The Block

• #5 all-time performer (14:34.91–2023)
• Irish record holder
• 2022 Commonwealth Games silver medalist

Daniel Wiffen, courtesy of Swim Ireland

It was Daniel Wiffen who got the ball rolling in the 1500 free this season. At the Stockholm Open, the Irishman fired off a 14:34.91, which now stands as the fifth fastest time in history. Wiffen had several big swims at the Stockholm Open, bursting through with a breakout that’s been building for a few months.

What makes Wiffen’s 1500 free swim so impressive is that it was a 16.88 second personal best, destroying his 14:51.79 from the Commonwealth Games. It’s also only the fourth sub-15:00 swim of his career.

Of the five main contenders, Wiffen has been the most open about wanting the world record. What’s helping him maintain his momentum from the Stockholm Open to Worlds is the fact that “[he] knows [he’s] not done.”

On the SwimSwam podcast, he went in-depth about his preparation, including the fact that he’s been trying to race the Worlds medalists as much as possible and that his goal times for the Stockholm Open were the 2022 Worlds bronze medalist times. Last year, he just missed out on the final by finishing 9th and he opened up about how he’s approaching prelims now that he’s coming in as a favorite. Everything he said implies that he’s approaching Fukuoka with a cool head and has done all he can to avoid being intimidated by the veterans of the 1500 championship final.

If Wiffen steps on the podium, he’ll be the first Irish swimmer to win a medal at long-course Worlds. But, he’s also clearly keeping an eye on the world record. He says that to break it, “he just needs to swim again.”

Florian Wellbrock: SCM World Record Holder

• #4 all-time performer (14:34.89–2023)
• SCM World record holder (14:06.88)
• 2019 World champion
• 2020 Olympic bronze medalist

Florian Wellbrock, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Just a week after Wiffen’s swim, Florian Wellbrock responded. At the Berlin Open, the 25-year-old German bettered Wiffen’s swim by two-hundredths, hitting 14:34.89–the fourth fastest mark all-time. He cut over a second off his personal best 14:36.15 from the 2018 European Championships.

Over half of SwimSwam readers think Wellbrock is the favorite in Fukuoka. That’s fair: he not only owns the fastest time of the season but he’s been incredibly consistent over his career. He’s been on the event podium every meet he’s raced at since 2018, and he’s tied with Paltrinieri for the most sub-14:37 swims. If there’s a “safe bet” among the five main contenders, it’s Wellbrock.

However, Wellbrock needs an answer to Finke’s last 50. He was running second in Budapest for the last 450-meters, but couldn’t match the American’s closing speed. He’s shown that he can bring that speed at the end of the race in short course meters. During his SCM world record-setting swim, Wellbrock negative split the race 7:04.33/7:02.33 and closed in 26.88.

Back in long-course, Wellbrock closed his 14:34.89 swim in 27.20, which is slower than the 26.86 he split in Budapest. It’s going to come down to the strategy that he takes in the final–is he going to try to push the pace on the front half of the race, or try to save up for a final 50 showdown? The answer to that might come down to the question that lingers for all these athletes: are they racing for a time or racing to win?

Mykhailo Romanchuk: Reigning European Champion

• #6 all-time performer (14:36.10–2022)
• Ukrainian record holder
• 2022 European champion
• 2020 Olympic silver medalist

MyKhailo Romanchuk (photo: Jack Spitser)

After fading to fifth at 2022 Worlds, Mykhailo Romanchuk rebounded two months later at the European Championships. In Rome, he blazed 14:36.10 en route to gold, upsetting Paltrinieri in front of a home nation crowd. The swim made him the #6 fastest performer and bettered his old Ukrainian record of 14:36.88, which he swam at the 2018 European Championships–the same meet where Wellbrock also swam his old PB.

Romanchuk knows a lot about swimming next to Wellbrock. When Russia invaded Ukraine Romanchuk, alongside his fellow Ukrainian swimmers, was displaced. By mid-March, he was Germany and training with Wellbrock. The two also stay close together in competition. Usually, they mark each other closely through the bulk of the race until whoever has the most left in the tank makes a move in the closing 500 meters of the race.

Romanchuk is the Tokyo silver medalist and a two time Worlds medalist, which makes him a consistent favorite for the podium. He’s never stood at the top of it at the Olympics/World level though–will that change this year?

That brings us back to strategy. Romanchuk sits at #3 in the season’s world rankings with his 14:40.21 from the Stockholm Open, faster than he was in the 2022 Worlds final. We’ve seen him, Wellbrock, and Finke stay cool as Paltrinieri jets off–but now they know that he can stay away. If someone like Wellbrock or Wiffen pushes the pace early will Romanchuk be forced to respond?

Bobby Finke: The Comeback King

• #7 all-time performer (14:36.70–2022)
• American record holder
• 2020 Olympic champion
• 2022 Worlds silver medalist

Bobby Finke (photo: Jack Spitser)

And last but certainly not least, there’s Finke. Now 23 years old, Finke is responsible for electrifying American men’s distance swimming again. At the Tokyo Olympics, he shocked the field not once but twice, coming from behind with stunning final 50 splits to get his hand on the wall first.

Though his didn’t win this race at Worlds last year, the event was hardly a disappointment for him. He walked away with a new personal best and American record of 14:36.70, which checks in at #7 on the all-time list. The swim was an almost three second drop, showing that he’s continued to progress since his performance in Tokyo.

Finke won U.S. Trials easily, setting a new U.S. Open record of 14:42.81. Like Paltrinieri, he hasn’t had much of a reason to show his cards yet this season, instead saving it for the big show. After taking second to Paltrinieri last year, Finke is sure to be eager to reclaim the top step of the podium.

Don’t expect that eagerness to change his strategy though. He’s lost the element of surprise with his closing speed but that hasn’t deterred him. Finke stuck to his Olympic gold-winning strategy and it paid off in the 800 free last year. It also pushed him ahead of Wellbrock for silver in this race. That it’s consistently worked has got to be a confidence boost for Finke heading into Fukuoka, and should keep him calm in the face of the potential chaos of this event.

Potential Upsets

Lukas Martens, Courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Can anyone touch the top five? If anyone can, the best bet is Lukas Märtens. He did beat Romanchuk last year, grabbing fourth place in 14:40.89. That was just off his personal best 14:40.22, which he’d swum earlier in the year.

Similarly to Wiffen, Märtens had a big breakout at the Stockholm Open last year, swimming head-turning times in the 400/800/1500 freestyles. A year removed from that explosion onto the international scene, Märtens has approached this season differently, clearly all-in for Worlds. He’s gotten close to his 1500 free PB though, with a 14:40.85 at the Berlin Open.

Someone else who’s had a spring breakout is Australia’s Sam Short. The 19-year-old posted a 14:46.67 personal best at 2023 Australian Trials. After the 3:42.46 400 free and 7:40.39 800 free he swam this spring, it seems like Short has some more time to drop in this event. It’s a big ask for him to drop the 10 seconds it would take to get involved in the medal fight, but he’s certainly capable of grabbing a finals lane.

Best of the Rest

Guilherme Costa (photo: Jack Spitser)

Other returning swimmers from the 2022 Worlds final are Guilherme Costa, Daniel Jervis, and Damien Joly. Costa doesn’t seem to have a recorded 1500 free time this season, capping things at 800m. However, he holds the South American record with the 14:48.53 he put up for sixth in Budapest.

Without a touch point for his form this season, it’s hard to predict how he’ll perform in Fukuoka. That’s standard though; before 2022 Worlds, he hadn’t swum the 1500 free at a meet since the Olympics.

Great Britain’s Daniel Jervis has been a consistent presence in the 1500 free final. He finished fifth at the Tokyo Olympics, and was seventh at Budapest Worlds. He’s #9 in the world this season in 14:46.95, within half a second of Short and Fei Liwei (14:46.59). That’s a solid position for him, as it’s faster than he was at Worlds last year and only four-hundredths from his personal best 14:46.91 from the 2019 British Championships.

On the other hand, Damien Joly has a bit of ground to cover. His season best is a 14:56.46 from the French Championships, well off his lifetime best 14:48.90. That best is from the Rio Olympics, and he’ll need to get much closer to it if he wants to get back into the final.

The Verdict

With five of the fastest performers in history in this event, plus some young stars looking to prove themselves, there’s plenty of ways one could argue this race going down. We’ve made our picks below, but there are good arguments to be made for virtually every finish order.

The one thing we know for sure? We’re going to be livid if the broadcast cuts to commercial in the middle of this race.

SwimSwam’s Top 8 Picks

Dark Horse: Ahmed Hafnaoui, Tunisia — Someone capable of really shaking this race up is Ahmed Hafnaoui. Of course, he’s best known for his Olympic gold in the 400 free, but Hafnaoui had a strong showing at 2021 SC Worlds in this event, hitting 14:10.94 for silver and making him the fifth-fastest performer of all time. Could he actually be more geared towards swimming longer distances than a 400 free? Hafnaoui skipped 2022 Worlds and while training at Indiana, swam 15:00.21 at the Ft. Lauderdale Pro Swim. Fully tapered, he could have a big time drop in store that lands him in the final.