2023 World Champs Previews: Young Stars Take Center Stage In Men’s 200 Free

2023 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 – 30, 2023 (pool swimming)
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Book

BY THE NUMBERS — MEN’S 200 Freestyle

• World Record: Paul Biedermann, Germany — 1:42.00 (2009)
• World Junior Record: David Popovici, Romania — 1:42.97 (2022)
• Championship Record: Paul Biedermann, Germany — 1:42.00 (2009)
• 2022 World Champion: David Popovici, Romania — 1:43.21

Young Guns

As the only swimmer in this field who’s broken 1:43, it’s David Popovici who’s the favorite here. The 18-year-old is lurking at #7 in the world rankings with a 1:45.49 from Sette Colli, but there was no reason for him to burn any matches in the early part of the season.

Hwang Sunwoo, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

His record from last summer speaks for itself. Setting aside his feats in the 100 freestyle, last season Popovici won this race every time he swam it. He lowered the world junior record twice at 2022 Worlds en route to gold (1:43.21), then lowered it again at the European Championships. It was in Rome where he blasted his 1:42.97, becoming the first swimmer to crack the 1:43 barrier in a textile suit and moving to third-fastest in history.

So, even if Popovici has shifted focus to Paris, he said at Sette Colli that “where there’s a race to be done, [he’s] always happy to be there,” so expect him to right back at the center of the 200 free final.

“1:44s may not be enough for the podium,” opined Hwang Sunwoo earlier this season. He may turn out to be right, but he’s also one of the swimmers most likely to be on the podium in Fukuoka. Now 20 years old, the South Korean freestyle ace really turned a corner in 2022. He won the silver medal behind Popovici in Budapest, swimming 1:44.47 for a new national record.

Then, at SC Worlds in Melbourne, Hwang struck gold, scorching a 1:39.72 to put up the first sub-1:40 SC 200m free since Frenchman Yannick Agnel‘s 1:39.70 a decade ago. In 2021 we named him (along with Popovici and Matt Richards) as one of the “stealthy six” set to disrupt at Paris 2024. But Hwang, like Popovici and Richards, is no longer stealthy–he is one of the main contenders in this race. He holds the world’s fastest time this season (1:44.61), which sets him up well not only for another podium but another time drop.

We’ll get to Richards in a minute, because there’s another teenager we need to talk about first. China’s Pan Zhanle broke the 100 free Asian record this spring and also swam a lifetime best 1:44.65. That’s a serious time for an 18-year-old, and shows that Pan is a contender in the 200 free as well as the 100. He didn’t even race this event at 2022 Worlds, but he’s launched himself to the top of the field with his early season results.

Matthew Richards and Tom Dean (photo: Jack Spitser)

We mentioned this in the 100 free preview, but even though he’s got youth on his side (and that’s not a unique factor in this field), it’s hard to predict if he’ll continue to improve at Worlds. Chinese swimmers have a history of being faster at Nationals than at international meets, and with the Asian Games in October, China may be looking past Worlds. However, Pan’s anticipated Worlds schedule shows that he’s not on the mixed freestyle relay, implying a focus on his individual performances in Fukuoka.

He was a part of Great Britain’s gold medal winning 4×200 free relay at the Tokyo Olympics, but Richards has really begun to come into his own this season. At British Championships, the 20-year-old completed a trio of historic freestyle times. Among those swims was a personal best of 1:44.83 in the 200 free, which puts him #3 in the world this season.

The Brits have significant depth in the 200 freestyle, and the fact that Richards beat the likes of Tom Dean and Duncan Scott for this individual spot at Worlds shows that he’s worth taking seriously.

2022 Worlds Finalists Check In

Dean, the 2020 Olympic champion, grabbed Great Britain’s second individual slot for this event with a 1:44.93. That’s faster than the 1:45.73 he swam at 2022 British Trials and the 1:44.98 he swam in last year’s Worlds final. He came away from that final with bronze, edging out Drew Kibler by a hundredth.

Like many British athletes, Dean had an incredibly busy 2022 as he competed at Worlds, Commonwealth Games, and European Championships. With just one major meet on the schedule, it will be interesting to see how his strategy changes. The reduced schedule could lead to him improving both his time and his place in the standings, though it will certainly by an uphill battle against the four youngsters. Dean holds a lifetime best of 1:44.22, which before Popovici dove in last summer, was the fastest time in a textile suit since 2012.

Neither Kibler nor Elijah Winnington are entered in the 200 freestyle this year, which means our three remaining swimmers from the 2022 final are Felix Auboeck, Kieran Smith, and Lukas Märtens.

Of the three, it’s Smith who sits highest in the world rankings this season, with his 1:45.63 from U.S. Trials. Like his 400 freestyle, Smith hit his peak in this event at the Tokyo Games. There, he swam his lifetime best of 1:44.74 leading off the American 4×200 free relay. He hasn’t been back under 1:45 since that swim, and if we’re following Hwang’s thought process that 1:44 won’t make the podium, Smith will need to swim a lifetime best to be a major factor in the final.

Lukas Martens courtesy of Gian Mattia D’Alberto LaPresse

Meanwhile, the 200 free will see Märtens at the lower end of his range. The German is a rangy freestyler who’s capable of contending for a medal from the 200 all the way to the 1500 free. He holds a lifetime best of 1:45.44, which he swam during his breakout meet, the 2022 Stockholm Open. He’s already approached that time this season, with a 1:45.79 from April.

Märtens didn’t quite match expectations after his breakout last spring–he added time in most of his events at Worlds, though he did get silver in the 400 freestyle. However, he seems to have approached his season very differently this year. The 200 free might not be where that comes through the most, but he could be back in the final again.

Auboeck swam a lifetime best 1:45.11 — a new Austrian record — en route to fourth at 2022 Worlds. He’s holding a season-best of 1:46.22, suggesting that he’s also keeping his cards close to his chest. The 200 freestyle is after the 400 free in the Worlds schedule, which means that by the time this event rolls around, we’ll have a better sense of many of these swimmer’s forms.

As we’re expecting a faster final than last year, Auboeck — like Smith and Märtens — will have to be at his best to make the final and be a factor. But, for all three of them, their experience in moving through the rounds could be a deciding factor, especially if one of the younger stars makes a mistake.

But Wait, There’s More

Fernando Scheffer (photo: Jack Spitser)

Two other names that you don’t want to forget are Fernando Scheffer and Katsuhiro Matsumoto. Scheffer is the 202o Olympic bronze medalist in this event. He won that medal out-touching Popovici with a 1:44.66 — a South American record. Like many of the Brazilian swimmers, Scheffer has been quiet so far this season, holding a season-best 1:46.28.

Now 25 years old, Scheffer missed out on the 2022 Worlds final by five-hundredths and finished 9th. It will be tough to get back into the final, but Scheffer is sure to be eager to have a chance to win his first long-course Worlds medal.

At 26, Matsumoto is one of the veterans of the group. He’s the 2019 silver medalist in this event, and like Scheffer, he also missed out on the final last year. However, he’s already surpassed his 2022 Worlds time this season. At the 2023 Japan Swim, he crushed a 1:44.98, nearing his Japanese record of 1:44.65. The time puts him #5 in the world this year. At the same meet, he also broke the five year old Japanese 100 free record, breaking 48 seconds for the first time. He’s shown that he’s back on form–now, he just needs to replicate on the Worlds stage.

The Verdict

This is going to be a tough event to make the final in, much less medal. No matter which way you slice it, there’s going to be at least one big name sitting in the stands when the championship heat dives in. Popovici is a clear favorite, and it’s hard to not like Hwang for silver, but there’s going to be an intense battle for bronze. So, going to come down to who’s managed their energy best through the rounds and who can come up with that last push to get their hand on the wall first.

SwimSwam’s Top 8 Picks

Dark Horse: Luke Hobson, United States — At U.S. Trials, Hobson upset Smith for the win in the 200 freestyle. He dropped over a second from his personal best, hitting a 1:45.12 for the win. The Longhorn had a breakout year in yards, winning the 200/500-yard free at NCAAs. Those gains clearly translated to the big pool in Indianapolis, the question now is what does he have left in store? It may take better than 1:44 to podium, but that time would safely land a swimmer in the final. For reference, the only 1:44 in the 2022 semis was Popovici.