2023 World Champs Previews: The Stage is Set for Historic Battle in Women’s 400 Free

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Book

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 400 FREESTYLE

• World Record: Summer McIntosh, Canada – 3:56.08 (2023)
• World Junior Record: Summer McIntosh, Canada – 3:56.08 (2023)
• Championship Record: Katie Ledecky, USA – 3:58.15 (2022)
• 2022 World Champion: Katie Ledecky, USA – 3:58.15

The women’s 400 free is one of the most highly anticipated events at this summer’s World Championships in Fukuoka. The three fastest performers in history are all set to go head-to-head for the first time since Canadian teenager Summer McIntosh fully burst onto the scene.

Not only do we have three historically great swimmers out in front in this event, but the field behind them is also quite deep and the battle to make the final should be a thrilling one.

THE BIG THREE

The three fastest swimmers in history in the women’s 400 free, Summer McIntosh, Ariarne Titmus, and Katie Ledecky, lead the pack in this event. Not only is that trio the three fastest swimmers of all-time, they’re way faster than anyone else in history. Ledecky is the #3 performer all-time with her PB of 3:56.46, meanwhile the now-retired Federica Pellegrini is the 4th-fastest all-time with a 3:59.15 and is the only other swimmer outside of McIntosh, Titmus, and Ledecky to have broken 4:00 in the event.

That being said, we can reasonably expect that this final will be a race in the middle between those three, with the rest of the field duking it out behind them.

Diving deeper into our top three seeds, let’s start with the most storied of the bunch: Katie Ledecky. Formerly the World Record holder in the event, Ledecky has a personal best of 3:56.46, a time which she established at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, now seven years ago. Though her 2016 Olympics performance is the only time she’s been 3:56 in her career, Ledecky still holds more all-time top 10 performances in the event than anyone else with five.

Moreover, though all three of these swimmers have been well under the Championship Record of 3:58.15, it’s worth noting that Ledecky holds the CR. It’s also worth noting that while Ledecky was only 4:00.45 at the U.S. Trials, she has already been as fast as 3:58.84 in 2023. She clocked that time at the Atlanta Classic back in May. While that time is still only good for 3rd in the world this year, given her season best coupled with how well she swam in the 800 and 1500 free at U.S. Trials, Ledecky is in great shape heading into Fukuoka.

This race does present a very interesting Ledecky dynamic to it. The typical 400-and-up Ledecky race consists of her getting out to a lead, then either maintaining it or simply continuing to grow it through the end of the race. We absolutely could still see Ledecky get out to a lead in this race, however, at this point we can say with a quite a bit of confidence that both McIntosh and Titmus are faster 200 freestylers than Ledecky, so they may actually be able to take the 400 out faster than her now. We’ll now soon enough, but this could be a very different type of race than we’re used to seeing from Ledecky, purely from a “racing the others around her” perspective.

Next up is Australian superstar Ariarne Titmus. After becoming the first woman in years to best Ledecky in this event back at the 2019 World Championships in Gwangju, Titmus broke Ledecky’s World Record last year. She swam a 3:56.40 at the 2022 Australian Trials, taking down what was considered to be one of the tougher World Records on the books.

Titmus swam a 3:58.47 at Australian Trials this year, making her the 2nd fastest performer in the world behind McIntosh. Of course, Titmus sat out of last year’s World Championships in Budapest, so we haven’t seen her race Ledecky on this stage since the Tokyo Olympics two summers ago. That being said, we did see Titmus go head-to-head with McIntosh at the Commonwealth Games last summer in Birmingham, where she bested McIntosh and won gold in 3:58.06.

The biggest thing Titmus has going for her heading into this race is that she’s been the most consistently fast of the three in this event. What I mean by that is Titmus is the only swimmer in history who has gone 3:56 multiple times, and she’s done so three times already in her career. The first came at the 2021 Australian Olympic Trials (3:56.90), then she went on to do so again in Tokyo (3:56.69). Then, of course, she clocked her former WR of 3:56.40 last May.

That brings us to the talk of the town. Canadian 16-year-old Summer McIntosh has taken the swimming world over. The youngster comes into this event as the top seed, after having shattered the World Record at the Canadian Trials in April with a stunning 3:56.08. It was one of two World Records the teen phenom set during the Canadian Trials, with the other coming in the women’s 400 IM.

I don’t mean to spoil it, but we’ve selected McIntosh as out pick to win this event. It’s really difficult to come up with a reason not to. She has youth on her side in the best way possible. Still only 16 years old, it’s entirely possible McIntosh shatters the WR once again this week. The women’s 400 free comes on the first day of the meet, so McIntosh’s tough event schedule won’t have had a chance to catch up to her yet. On top of that, though she’s young, McIntosh is far from inexperienced. She competed at the Tokyo Olympics two summers ago, where she finished 4th in the 400 free, and she went on to win four medals, including gold in the 200 fly and 400 IM, at last summer’s World Championships. So, to recap, McIntosh is young, a proven champion, the WR holder, and the fastest swimmer in the world this year by a wide margin.

UP-AND-COMERS

Once again, the dynamic in the women’s 400 free is a little different than many other events. We have a group of swimmers who are clearly well out in front of the field, followed by a group full of young talent trying to move closer to that top trio. Part of the reason I think this is such an exciting race this year is that if we pull back the McIntosh-Titmus-Ledecky layer, there’s a ton of noteworthy things going on behind them.

Firstly, New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather may just be the breakout women’s freestyler of this World Championship. The 19-year-old has been on great improvement curve in recent years, which is highlighted by fantastic performances at the New Zealand Championships in April. At that meet, she clocked New Zealand Records in the 200 free (1:55.44) and 400 free (4:00.62).

That 4:00.62 makes her the 4th seed heading into this meet, as well as the 4th fastest swimmer in the world this year. While it’s easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees because there are three swimmers in this event who have been 3:56, 4:00.62 is still a very fast time. In fact, that time made Fairweather the #6 performer all-time in the event and #4 among active athletes. That being said, Fairweather is in a favorable position to potentially become the 5th swimmer in history to break 4:00 in the event. While it would take the race of her life to win a medal in this event this summer, Fairweather still has a chance to make history.

Next up, Australia’s Lani Pallister is a swimmer who has been knocking on the door for a little bit now. Pallister comes in as the 5th seed in the event with a 4:02.16, which also stands as her personal best in the event. She swam that time in the final at last summer’s World Championships and it was enough to earn her a 4th-place finish in Budapest. She’s already been near that time this year, having swum a 4:02.43. While Pallister has more work to do to get down to that 4:00 mark, she stands an excellent chance of advancing to the final in this event.

18-year-old Bella Sims is the second American in this event in Fukuoka. Sims is coming off a good showing at the U.S. Trials at the end of June, wherein she came in 2nd with a new personal best of 4:03.25. A very good 200 freestyler, Sims is starting to come into her own in the 400 free. Sims is the #7 seed coming into the meet, giving her a good chance of qualifying for the final.

Germany’s Isabel Gose is another swimmer who has been steadily climbing through the ranks in the women’s 400 free. A terrific junior swimmer, the now 21-year-old Gose qualified for the final in the 400 free at both the Tokyo 2020 (2021) Olympics as well as last summer’s World Championships. Last summer, she finished 5th in the final with a 4:03.47. Her personal best of 4:03.21 came from the Tokyo Olympics, though she has gone 4:03 on several occasions since then.

Of note, Gose clocked a new personal best of 8:19.65 in the 800 free at the Berlin Swim Open in April, so it’s possible some of that improvement in the 800 could carry over into the 400.

LI BINGJIE

Coming into this meet, China’s Li Bingjie is the 5th seed in the 400 free. She boasts a personal best of 4:01.08 in the event, a time which she first swam at the Tokyo Olympics two summers ago, then matched at the Chinese National Championships in May. Her performance in Tokyo earned her the bronze medal at those Olympics. Moreover, her 4:01.08 stands as the Chinese and Asian Record in the event.

Why is Bingjie in her own category? Well, she’s a little bit on the inconsistent side, especially in the 400 free. There’s no doubt that Bingjie swimming at her best could finish 4th in this event in Fukuoka, however, she’s also liable to miss the final entirely. She did that exact thing last summer in Budapest. Coming in highly seeded, she clocked a 4:08.25 in prelims last summer, finishing 10th and missing the final. She also missed the final of the 1500 free in Budapest. Bingjie advanced in the 800 free last summer, where she went on to finish 5th.

All it would take for Bingjie to make some noise in this event in Fukuoka is swimming fast enough in the heats to just grab a lane for the final. The tricky thing about that is this field of 400 freestylers is looking much more like the Tokyo Olympics field than last summer’s World Championships. The reason that matters is because it took a 4:04.07 to make the final in Tokyo, while it only took a 4:06.44 to advance in Budapest last summer. This is a very deep field, so it’s incumbent on everybody to be on top of their game, or at least very close, in prelims.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

DARK HORSE: Simona Quadarella, Italy – Though she’s primarily an 800 and 1500 freestyler these days, 24-year-old Italian distance star Simona Quadarella is still a force in the 400 free. Her personal best is a 4:03.35, which she swam back at the European Championships in 2018, however, she went 4:04.77 last summer at the European Championships and 4:05.83 at the Italian Championships in April of this year. All it would take is a good prelims swim out of Quadarella to see her earn a lane in the final.