After the record-setting year that was 2023, we’re gearing up for another exciting year over here at SwimSwam, and part of that is releasing our fourth annual Top 100 list—check out last year’s rankings here.
Similar to 2023, we’ve taken a statistically driven approach reliant primarily upon world rankings and World Championship medals. We’ve also taken into account things such as potential, Olympic medal opportunities, injuries, and versatility. Long course is weighted more than short course, though performance potential in both formats is factored in.
We’ve also moved Russian and Belarusian swimmers way down this list because of their likely absence from the Olympics or either World Championship meet. While that doesn’t preclude them from swimming fast at domestic meets (including whatever Russia comes up with to replace the Olympics), those swims just won’t mean quite as much without the international spotlight.
We’ll be breaking down the top 100 into multiple installments, so keep an eye out as they’re released.
These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.
Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Anya Pelshaw and Mark Wild contributed to this report.
Men’s Rankings:
- #100 – #91
- #90 – #81
- #80 – 71
- #70 – 61
- #60 – 51
- #50 – #41
- #40 – #31
- #30 – #21
- #20 – #11
- #10 – #1
This first group features swimmers who all have the ability to be an individual Olympic finalist. For some, it comes down to performing at the right time, and for others, it’s simply pushing through their domestic rankings and earning a spot on the Olympic team.
#100: Ilya Shymanovich, Belarus – It’s been a while since Shymanovich has swum a best time in a primary event, but he’s not far off either. Last year, he was within .12 seconds of his best in the long course 100 breast. A Belarusian, Shymanovich’s path back to international meets is probably a little easier than that of his Russian colleagues.
#99: Wang Kuan Hung (Eddie Wang), Chinese Taipei – Wang finished 8th in the 200 fly at last year’s World Championships, but his silver medal at the Asian Games in 1:54.53, within a tenth of his best time, was his top swim of the year. He seems to be almost entirely focused on that event now, eschewing his secondary races.
#98: Zalan Sarkany, Hungary – Sarkany wasn’t on Hungary’s World Championship team last year, but after a great block of training back home in the fall, he’s come out firing over the last month. First, he went 14:53 in the 1500 at a Hungarian Olympic qualification event, which was a near 11-second improvement on his previous best time and would have made the final at Worlds. Then, back at Arizona State and in training mode again, he swam 14:28.09 in the 1650-yard free, which would have won last year’s NCAA title. The combination of the two training sites is working for him.
#97: Benedek Kovacs, Hungary – Kovacs played the three rounds of the World Championships very well last year in the men’s 200 back. He was 14th in prelims in 1:58 before erupting for a new best time of 1:55.89 in the semis. He ended with a 1:55.85 showing in the final and a 5th-place finish. Without Russian participation, the men’s backstroke events are vulnerable for some surprise medalists in Paris. He was a bit too casual in prelims of the 100 back at Worlds, missing out on semis, but he’s within range of a final in that event as well.
#96: Oliver Klemet, Germany – Klemet qualified for the Olympics in open water by finishing 3rd in the 10km in Fukuoka. He suffered in the pool in the 400 free at Worlds, clocking 3:49.9 after going 3:45.3 early in the year. He also went 14:45 in April in the 1500, which ranked top 10 in the world last year but only 4th among Germans. Given that this ranking is focused on pool swimming, where he chooses to focus his energy (or if the double goes better with pool coming first in Paris) will go a long way in determining if this ranking is justified or should be higher.
#95: Josif Miladinov, Bulgaria – Miladinov, still only 20, hasn’t been a best time in the 100 fly since his breakthrough 50.93 at the 2021 European Championships, and hasn’t been a best time in the 100 free since a 48.83 in 2020 (when he was only 17). It’s a headscratcher of a progression. He did make the 100 fly Olympic final one month after his 18th birthday, however, so there’s experience on the big stage.
#94: Jacob Peters, Great Britain – Peters was 4th at Worlds last year in the 50 fly, and missed the final in the 100 fly by a narrow margin (he was 51.1 at British Trials). He’s not on GB’s roster for long course Worlds in Doha so that 50 won’t do him much good for international medals.
#93: Justin Ress, USA – Ress’ value in these rankings plummets in an Olympic year because his best event, the 50 backstroke, is not on the Olympic schedule, and he wasn’t chosen for the U.S. team for Worlds. Without that event—where he is the 2022 world champion and the 2023 silver medalist—Ress faces an uphill climb to earn a U.S. Olympic roster spot. His best bet is earning a spot on the 4×100 freestyle relay, which he’s done for the last two Worlds. But Caeleb Dressel‘s potential return to form along with new American men bursting onto the scene makes that easier said than done. He was also 3rd at U.S. Trials in the 100 back behind Ryan Murphy and Hunter Armstrong.
#92: Jake Foster, USA – Jake Foster, the older of the two Foster brothers, took a gap year before starting medical school to chase his Olympic dream. The early returns have been great—he won a Pan American Games gold medal in the 100 breaststroke and at the USA Swimming Pro Championships in July, he swam 59.64 in the 100 breast and 2:08.23 in the 200 breast. There are openings on the U.S. Olympic team in the men’s breaststrokes, and Foster is trending in the right direction in a hurry.
#91: Thomas Neill, Australia – Objectively, Neill, 21, didn’t have a great year for most of 2023. At Worlds, he was 10th in the 200 IM and 11th in the 400 IM. But in the latter half of the year, he seemed to gather some momentum, including best times in the 200 IM (1:57.41) and 400 IM (4:13.43) in December in the Queensland Championships, along with his best swim in years in the 200 free (1:45.78). It feels like he took a step backward last year to take two forward for Paris.
I think Shymanovich should be slightly higher. He went 58.41 in 100 breast in 2023, faster than Kamminga and Martinenghi. Although he has history of choking at big stages, he’s still more likely to win an individual medal at Olympics than most of swimmers in this group. He also has much higher potential at short course Worlds.
If he can compete as a neutral, which it now looks like he is, he should def be ranked higher than what it is now
He’s already cleared by WAQ to swim in Doha, so it’s almost certain he’ll swim in Paris.
Top 10
Marchand
Qin
Hafnaoui on top 3
Mcevoy
Chalmers
Pan zhanle
Kos
Murphy
Finke
Grousset
Can get in
Ceccon
Short
Milak
Popovici
Tough top 10
And if someone would be out for any to enter
Murphy grousset zhanle and kos
I’m surprised you have Short so low. I would have him above Chalmers, McEvoy, Kos, Murphy and Finke. Short has gold potential in 2, medal potential in 1, plus arguably the 4×200.
EDIT: Probably above Pan Zhanle and Grousset as well. Who else on the list has 2 gold and 3 medal potential over Short?
I think I recall Short saying he won’t be targetting the 4×2. It really doesn’t go well with the 800.
Ah yes forgot about that conflict. Still, after Marchand and Hafnaoui he’s really the only one with 3 individual medal shots (I think)
Yeah, he’s definitely underranked and McEvoy should be lower unless he can find something in the 100.
The 4×2 works well for Short at Worlds so hopefully we’ll see what he can do at Singpore 2025.
Milak if he returns also could have 3 medals
Grousset could medal 50/100 free and 100 fly
Hmmm I guess so. Neither of their PBs would have medalled in the 100 free in Tokyo. Grousset would have tied for bronze in the 50 free. I’m expecting those events to be much faster though
50 Free I have my doubts
Manadou fratus are not near prime
Dressel is a question mark
Andrew I expect nothing
We have mcevoy proud and somebody else. But yeah 50 free can be a surprise show
I considered more who I think has a higher chance of getting 1 gold medal
Using that metric, you think Finke has a higher chance of winning a gold than Short? Even though Short went GSB at worlds and Finke only SB?
I would still have Short in the top 5 using that criteria
I think there is a bigger chance of finke beating Hafnaoui on 1500 than short winning the 400 again.. but I would not be surprised at all if Hafnaoui win all 3
Fair enough. I’m curious why you think that when it’s the opposite of what actually happened
No particular reason, just gut actually
Short is a strong medal threat in 3 individual events. How is behind Kos and Finke?
I Think is easier for Kos to repeat his 200 back gold than short beating hafnaoui again
Using your logic, Kate Douglas won’t be ranked in the top 10.
My female top 10 would be (not in order)
Moc
Sjostrom
Ledecky
Mckeown
Summer
Zhang
Titmus
Ruta.
Douglas
Smith..
I would take smith or Douglas out if chikunova swims as I think they are the ones with lowest “sure” individual gold medals is this situation
The logic you are using for women’s is inconsistent with the logic you use for men’s.
Neither Douglas nor Smith has higher chance at gold in any event than Short. Especially Smith.
Yes they do in the women’s medley relay.
I think there wont be 10 women who wil won gold because we have much more who can win 2+ (zhang, moc, summer, ledecky, mckeown)
We have some who will win one (ruta and sjostrom)
Out of these, Douglas have the biggest chance without chikunova there. Then I chose who will have the biggest medal Haul without gold for top 10
Short and Kolesnikov in the top 10
Kolesnikov gonna break the 100 back WR at whatever meet the Russians have instead of Paris.
Kolesnikov won’t be in Paris tho
Since it’s an Olympic year I feel like the ranking should be heavily favored from an Olympics perspective. Taking into account medal potential and the chances of actually getting it done I’d probably select the top 10 from the group of Xu, Murphy, Ceccon, Qin, Chalmers, Pan, Richards, short, hafnaoui, and Marchand.
Richards?
I think top 4 is Qin, Marchand, Hafnaoui, Short (not necessarily in that order), and the remaining 6 spots go to Finke, Chalmers, Murphy, Ceccon (relay potential+100 back) Richards (medal chance in both 100/200 free and gold chance 4×100/4×200 relay) and McEvoy (Sjostrom situation: might only go for the 50 free, but strong favourite + WR chance in that).
Pan Zhanle is yet to prove himself on the biggest stage. Kos is the favourite in the 200 back, and his yards progress and practice times indicate he has great potential – I could see him medal in both backstrokes and the 200IM but most of that is still based on speculation. Grousset’s only chance at gold is the 100… Read more »
I wonder if there will be someone not ranked in the top 100 who will win Olympic gold?
Cameron McEvoy did it last year.
Will Dressel make the list? His times weren’t too impressive but his December times plus potential could put him on the list
Dressel’s never fast early in the season so his times at US Open were very promising imo
100% Dressel will make the list.
Dressel already showed competitive times late last year, unlike Cameron McEvoy who wasn’t swimming competitively until early 2023.
My bet is Dressel in the top 20. Or at least top 30.
Dressel should be around 50 in my opinion. Currently he’s a high ceiling low floor type of guy. The only swimmers with a possibly higher ceiling than him are Marchand/Qin/maybe Hafnoui which would put him at a top 4 ceiling. However his times from 2023 are prob around the 80s or 90s range if not out of the list completely. So somewhere in the range of 40s or 50s would probably the most appropriate for him.
anyone else thought the cover picture was carson foster and not jake? no? ok then
I thought it’s Jake, he has more angular face than Carson.
In the blip about Sarkany saying both training sites work for him. Hard to say that so soon. He was home this fall….I am assuming thru Xmas. So he comes back for a couple weeks and does an excellent 1650?! Does a couple weeks equal a good situation for him? Let’s see what happens at ncaas and Paris!
My thoughts as well… the Veszprém training group has obviously worked for him, and I don’t see why ASU wouldn’t, but hard evidence of that is yet to be seen.
Is Shymanovich going to Doha? Would be good to understand what if any Belarusian or Russian swimmers will attend next month ?
Updates on this shortly…
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