SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which barrier is most likely to be broken in the Olympic year:
Question: Which barrier has the best chance of being broken in 2024? (Men)
RESULTS
- 1500 free, 14:30 – 45.2%
- 400 free, 3:40 – 31.4%
- 200 IM, 1:54 – 16.6%
- 200 fly, 1:50 – 4.4%
- 200 free, 1:42 – 2.5%
No discipline in men’s swimming has seen the level increase over the last two years than distance freestyle, which might sound strange given that the world records in the 400 and 800 have been on the books since 2009 and the 1500 since 2012.
However, two of those marks have started to be seriously approached by the current crop of swimmers, and it stands to reason one or both of them could fall in the Olympic year.
In our latest recent poll asking SwimSwam readers which key men’s barrier is most likely to fall in 2024, 14:30 in the men’s 1500 free came out on top at 45.2%, followed by 3:40 in the 400 free at 31.4%.
In the 1500, Grant Hackett held the world record for a decade at 14:34.56, a performance he produced at the 2001 World Championships en route to winning gold by more than 24 seconds.
Sun Yang used a blistering last 50 to take down that record at the 2011 World Championships (14:34.14), and then took three more seconds off it at the 2012 Olympics in 14:31.02.
That record appeared to be out of reach for years, though the emergence of Italy’s Gregorio Paltrinieri began to lead to some belief it would eventually fall.
Paltrinieri went 14:34.04 to win the European title in 2016, 14:34.57 to win Olympic gold a few months later, and continued to progress with swims of 14:33.10 in 2020 and then winning the 2022 world title in 14:32.80.
Not including the Olympic-winning swim, the other three times ranked #2, #3 and #4 all-time behind Sun’s world record…until last year.
In an epic battle, two Tokyo Olympic champions went head-to-head in the final at the 2023 World Championships, producing the second and third-fastest swims ever.
Ahmed Hafnaoui, who won a surprise gold medal at the 2021 Games in the 400 free, edged out the reigning Olympic gold medalist in the 800 and 1500 free, Bobby Finke, as they clocked respective times of 14:31.54 and 14:31.59.
Given that Hafnaoui dropped 18 seconds from his previous best time (14:49.53 from the prelims), and Finke took off five from his PB set at the 2022 World Championships (14:36.70), it’s certainly well within reason that they could take off more than a second and a half in 2024 and break the elusive 14:30 barrier.
In addition to those two, we could also realistically see the likes of Paltrinieri, Florian Wellbrock and Daniel Wiffen challenge the world record, with Wellbrock and Wiffen having broken 14:35 for the first time in 2023.
Wiffen is also coming off obliterating Hackett’s longstanding record in the SCM 800 free, giving him a big momentum boost entering the year.
2023 World Rankings, Men’s 1500 Freestyle (LCM)
- Ahmed Hafnaoui (TUN), 14:31.54 – 2023 World Championships
- Bobby Finke (USA), 14:31.59 – 2023 World Championships
- Florian Wellbrock (GER), 14:34.89 – 2023 Berlin Swim Open
- Daniel Wiffen (IRL), 14:34.91 – 2023 Swim Open Stockholm
- Sam Short (AUS), 14:37.28 – 2023 World Championships
- Mykhailo Romanchuk (UKR), 14:40.21 – 2023 Swim Open Stockholm
- Lukas Martens (GER), 14:40.85 – 2023 Swim Open Stockholm
- Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA), 14:41.38 – 2023 Italian Nationals
- Sven Schwarz (GER), 14:43.53 – 2023 U23 European Championships
- Oliver Klemet (GER), 14:45.89 – 2023 Berlin Swim Open
In the 400 free, Paul Biedermann‘s 2009 record of 3:40.07 has gone untouched since 2009, with Ian Thorpe having set the fastest textile time ever, 3:40.08, back in 2002.
No one had gone sub-3:41 since Sun did in 2012 (3:40.14) until last year, when Australian Sam Short (3:40.68) out-touched Hafnaoui (3:40.70) for gold at the World Championships.
Only one of the 39 fastest swims ever (3:42.50 and faster) occurred between 2018 and 2021, but eight of them have occurred over the last two years. In addition to Short and Hafnaoui, Elijah Winnington (3:41.22) and Lukas Märtens (3:41.60) are also relatively within range of the 3:40 barrier, or at least going sub-3:41.
Trailing the two distance events in the poll was 1:54 in the 200 IM, 1:50 in the 200 fly and 1:42 in the 200 free.
In the 200 IM, Ryan Lochte‘s record of 1:54.00 has stood since 2011, and after he and Michael Phelps were the only swimmers sub-1:55 for years, with Phelps having first broken the marker in 2007, Wang Shun (1:54.62) and Leon Marchand (1:54.82) joined them in 2023.
In the 200 fly, 1:50 hinges entirely on Kristof Milak, who broke Phelps’ 2009 world record in 2019 (1:50.73) and then lowered it down to 1:50.34 at the 2022 World Championships.
Milak’s status entering 2024 is a big wildcard after he pulled out of the 2023 World Championships.
Biedermann’s record of 1:42.00 in the 200 free is widely regarded as one of the marks that will stand the longest, but David Popovici put some hope in everyone’s mind when he became the first swimmer in a textile suit to go sub-1:43 (and just the fourth sub-1:44), clocking 1:42.97 at the 2022 European Championships.
However, with Popovici slightly off form at the 2023 World Championships, the gold medal was won in 1:44.30.
As for the record in the men’s 800 free, Zhang Lin‘s 7:32.12 swim from the 2009 World Championships is still well outside of what anyone has been able to do. Since the final in Rome, where Ous Mellouli was the runner-up to Zhang in what remains the second-fastest swim ever in 7:35.27, Hafnaoui’s 7:37.00 winning time from Fukuoka is the next fastest.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Which barrier is most likely to fall this year?
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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
Half the readers think it’s more likely someone takes at least 0.90 seconds off an already incredible personal best in the 200 IM than the best Backstroke of all time being pushed by the second best into taking 0.34 off of her best time!?
I’m Kaylee’s biggest fan and I voted for 200IM. 200IM and 100 back are the only actual options, breast and fly aren’t happening.
Kaylee certainly has a shot at going sub 57 but her WRs last year were essentially perfect races. Her skills are so strong now that it’s hard to see where she still has much time to drop. However, Summer still has a fair bit of room to improve in the 200IM and we haven’t seen a tapered one from her since trials, and her other 2 200s have improved massively since trials.
The first three events on that list look reasonable bets to be broken but I would be shocked if the 200BF and 200FS world records were broken in 2024(and I recognize they received only received a very small proportion of the vote). In the 200BF we know that Milak is nowhere near in the shape he was when he broke the WR while Marchand and Honda who are the strongest challengers are still more than two seconds away. In the 200FS Popovici has gone 1.42.97 so he would have to improve on his PB by a full second to break the WR and given that he was only 1.44/1.45 at the World Champions, that looks very unlikely. The next fastest… Read more »
Idk Honda just got a 153 at a meet if anyone can do it, it’s him, plus marchand might not even do it. I don’t trust Popovici to do the 200 but Olympics change people man
Japanese swimmers are notable for swimming very fast in local meets
Honda swam faster at domestic meet than at World Championships in both 2022 & 2023.
I don’t think 1:54 is going anywhere this year.
I feel that no women’s barrier on the options will broken. Some swimmers will get very close.
But if one is broken, it will be a hugely momentous event and will likely be the women’s performance of the year.