2024 W. NCAA Previews: Breakout Stars Abby McCulloh and Aurora Roghair Lead Packed Mile Field

2024 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 20-23, 2024
• Gabrielsen Natatorium, Athens, Georgia
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
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WOMEN’S 1650 FREE

• U.S. Open Record: 15:01.41 – Katie Ledecky, Gator Swim Club (2017)
• American Record: 15:01.41 – Katie Ledecky, Gator Swim Club (2017)
• NCAA Record: 15:03.31 – Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• 2023 NCAA Champion: Kensey McMahon, Alabama – 15:43.84

Last year’s mile was a great race featuring a relatively young field. Alabama’s Kensey McMahon used her 5th year of eligibility last season and it paid off, as she won the NCAA title in 15:43.84. Tennessee’s Kristen Stege came in 4th with a 15:50.24 and was the only podium finisher other than McMahon who doesn’t return this season.

Indiana’s Ching Gan, then a sophomore, had a huge swim for 2nd, clocking her career best of 15:46.28. Wisconsin’s Paige McKenna, also a sophomore last season, was 3rd with a 15:48.71. Texas’ Erica Sullivan (5th), Indiana’s Mariah Denigan (7th), and Georgia’s Rachel Stege (8th) were all sophomores as well last season.

INDIANA’S DUO

Mariah Denigan (photo: Jack Spitser)

The Hoosiers have a great distance duo in juniors Ching Gan and Mariah Denigan. Gan, of course, came in 2nd in the event last year, making her the fastest returner from last year, since McMahon has since graduated. Meanwhile, Denigan is the 5th-fastest returner from last year’s NCAAs.

Gan has been excellent this year, having clocked a season-high 15:48.70 at the Big Ten Championships last month. That time is good for 3rd in the NCAA this season and comes in about 2 seconds off her career best of 15:46.28, which she swam at last year’s NCAAs. Gan has the experience and she’s swum very well at NCAAs in the past, which puts her in a great place heading into this meet.

Denigan, on the other hand, has had a bit of an odd season. It was announced back in the fall that Denigan would be taking a break from competing for Indiana while she focused on training for the World Championships in Doha, where she was vying for a spot on the US Open Water Olympic roster. She succeeded, earning her way onto this summer’s Olympic team. After spending months preparing for open water racing, Denigan then came back and went to Big Tens, where she swam pretty well. Her best race at Big Tens was probably the mile, where she clocked a 15:59.56. Her career best of 15:52.18 was set at NCAAs last season.

GEORGIA’S TRIO

While Indiana has a great distance duo, Georgia has a great distance trio this year and, coincidentally, they’re all juniors as well. They’re led by Abby McCulloh, who holds the top time in the NCAA this season with the 15:40.96 she swam at the SEC Championships last month. She’s been nothing short of exceptional this season. Last year, she took 12th in the mile at NCAAs with a 15:57.34. One year later, she leads the NCAA by nearly six seconds. McCulloh will be in the middle lane of the fastest heat on Saturday, so she’ll be in a great position.

Georgia has fellow junior Rachel Stege in the mix as well. Stege is their fastest returner from last year, having taken 8th at last year’s NCAAs with a 15:54.55, which is her career best in the event. This season, she’s been as fast as 15:58.57. It’s worth noting that while she’s only been 4 seconds off her career best in the mile this season, she’s still ahead of her pace from last year, where she entered NCAAs with a season-best of 16:00.96. If she’s able to show up big at NCAAs again this season and drop a handful of seconds from her seed time, Stege will have no issue landing on the podium once again.

Yet another junior, Dune Coetzee, looks like she’s primed to score as well. Coetzee enters the meet with a season-best of 15:59.18, which puts her at the 13th seed. Her 15:59.18 also stands as her career best in the event. She came in 20th in the mile at last year’s NCAAs with a 16:05.42. While it would take a huge swim for Coetzee to work her way onto the podium, she stands a great chance of finishing in the top 16, as long as she can be right on her time from SECs.

WISCONSIN DISTANCE

Wisconsin features junior Paige McKenna, who came in 3rd last year with a 15:48.71, however, they quietly have what is unquestionably one of the best distance groups in the NCAA behind her. In fact, Wisconsin has 5 women entered in the 1650 this week, none of which are swimming it as a bonus event. All 5 of Wisconsin’s milers are in the top 25 seeds.

Paige McKenna (photo: Jack Spitser)

McKenna enters the meet as the #8 seed with her season best of 15:54.95, which she swam at Big Tens. While that isn’t all that close to her best, McKenna is highly experienced. In addition to her 3rd-place finish at last year’s meet, McKenna won the mile at the 2022 NCAAs with a 15:40.84, which is her career best in the event. As the 8th seed, McKenna will be in an outside lane in the fastest heat on Saturday, which could be very good for her.

Wisconsin also has freshman Maddie Waggoner in the mix. Of course, we don’t have historical NCAAs performances to point to with Waggoner, however, she’s coming in as the #10 seed with her season best of 15:57.36, which is her career-best as well. That time came from Big Tens last month, so now all we’re waiting for is to see if she has more in the tank for NCAAs. She’ll be in the middle of the 2nd-fastest heat and is in very good position to score at the very least.

While they aren’t seeded to score, Wisconsin has three more swimmers just outside the top 16 in Alivia Lindorfer (18th, 16:04.88), Blair Stoneburg (22nd, 16:07.46), and Elle Braun (25th, 16:08.59). All three of those times are career bests for these swimmers.

THE REST

Texas junior Erica Sullivan is always a wildcard in the mile. The Olympic Silver medalist in the 1500 free in Tokyo, Sullivan holds, by far, the fastest career best in this field with a 15:23.81. She put up that time back in December of 2019, almost 4.5 years ago. While that was a long time ago, it still happened and we can’t dismiss it. Her season-best this year is the 15:52.90 she swam at the Big 12 Championships last month, which has earned her the 4th seed for this week. Sullivan has every chance to contend for this title on Saturday.

Stanford’s Aurora Roghair, a junior, posted her career best of 15:46.35 at the Pac-12 Championships a few weeks ago, which puts her at the #2 seed for this meet. Roghair finished just outside of scoring at last year’s NCAAs, taking 17th with a 16:03.15. She’s been nothing short of exceptional this season, as she entered the season with a career-best of 16:01.55, which she swam at the 2022 Pac-12 Championships when she was a freshman. As long as she can be right around her time from Pac-12s, Roghair will have no problem landing on the podium, maybe even on the top.

Arizona State sophomore Deniz Ertan has begun to enter the conversation as well. After spending her freshman year at Georgia Tech, Ertan transferred to ASU and she’s been swimming extremely well since then. Ertan scored in the event last year while she was at Georgia Tech, finishing 15th with a 16:02.75. This season, Ertan has posted her career best of 15:53.23, which is good for the 5th seed at this meet. She’ll need to be at least that fast on Saturday, but as long as she is, Ertan should be on the podium.

Penn 5th year Anna Kalandadze comes in as the 6th seed with her season best of 15:54.53, which comes in just off her career best of 15:53.88. Kalandadze came in 10th in the mile at NCAAs last year with a 15:55.60.

Ohio State has a nice duo in senior Maya Geringer and junior Gwen Woodbury. Geringer comes in as the #9 seed with a 15:56.28, while Woodbury is 11th with a 15:58.37. Interestingly, both of their season bests came at the Ohio State Invite back in November, meaning both were slower at Big Tens. Still, these Buckeyes will be in the 2nd-fastest heat together on Saturday, and they stand a chance of landing on the podium.

We also can’t forget about Florida junior Emma Weyant. Coming in as the 7th seed with her season best of 15:54.62, Weyant will be on the outside of the fastest heat on Saturday. While Weyant is probably a hair better in the 500 free and 400 IM than she is in the mile, her 15:54.62 from SECs last month is her career best and that time is right around what it should take to make the top 8 at this meet. Of course, Florida has also become a distance powerhouse under Anthony Nesty, so Weyant also has that going for her.

THE VERDICT

The mile is so challenging to predict unless you have someone who is unquestionably ahead of the field like Katie Ledecky in it. It’s a bit of a tricky event to get right from a rest perspective, especially when you’re trying to rest for conference meets and NCAAs within about a month.

This should be a great race, particularly in the fastest heat that will swim with finals. It would appear Abby McCulloh has the most momentum coming into the meet. She’s been on fire this season, holding the fastest time in the NCAA by over 5 seconds. Couple that with Georgia’s history of swimming well at NCAAs, and she looks to be in a very good place heading into the race. The same goes for her teammate, Rachel Stege, who was on the podium last year.

Aurora Roghair probably has the next-most momentum behind McCulloh heading into the meet. She’s also been on fire this season and as long as she can be right around her time from Pac-12s, she’ll be right near the top of the podium.

SWIMSWAM PICKS

Dark Horse: Liberty Williams, Senior (Alabama): After spending her first three seasons at Louisville, Liberty Williams is now a member of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Williams came in 9th at last year’s NCAAs with a 15:55.29. She has a career-best of 15:43.21, which she swam at the 2022 ACC Championships. Since that 15:43, Williams has been pretty up-and-down in the event. She went on from that swim to go 16:04.15 at the 2022 NCAAs. This season, she’s been as fast as 16:06.49, which has her as the 20th seed. Her season best is well off her career best, however, at her best, Williams would be in contention to win this event.