2024 Olympic Previews: The Sky’s the Limit in 400 IM for Marchand, but Battle Brews for 3rd

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
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MEN’S 400 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY— BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 4:02.50 – Leon Marchand, France (2023)
• World Junior Record: 4:10.02 – Ilya Borodin, Russia (2021)
• Olympic Record: 4:03.84 – Michael Phelps, USA (2008)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Chase Kalisz, USA – 4:09.42

There won’t be much preamble in this event as so much of it was covered last summer, but as a reminder, here is a little bit of last year’s coverage.

Leon Marchand of France won his second consecutive World Championships in Fukuoka, in a new World Record time of 4:02.50. He not only broke Michael Phelp’s longest and last record of 4:03.84, but he demolished it, being the first swimmer under the 4:03 barrier.

Behind him were the US’s Carson Foster (4:06.56) and Daiya Seto (4:09.41), who won the silver and bronze medals, respectively.

Entering the Olympics, Marchand is the clear and obvious front-runner as he is entered more than four seconds clear of his nearest competition and is the only active swimmer to have been under 4:05.9. However, as the past has taught us, being the favorite on paper is no guarantee to success and Marchand’s performances this year might be a glimmer of hope to his opponents.

“Marchand On”

While atop the entry lists, which allowed entry times dating back to March 1st, 2023, this season, Marchand ranks 11th in the world and just 9th among Olympic entrants. His time of 4:10.62 from the French Elite Championships did clock in as a season-best, surpassing the 4:11.21 he swam at the San Antonio stop of the Pro Swim Series, but was nowhere near as fast or impressive as the swims put up by his rivals.

Yet those times should not be any cause for major concern. Before the World Championships in 2023, Marchand was 4:10.57 at the French Elite Championships and was 4:10.88 in the prelims in Fukuoka and then went on to break the WR. Additionally, despite it being an Olympic year, Marchand did not opt to redshirt his NCAA season. Instead, he helped lead ASU to its first title in program history.

In March, Marchand set new NCAA records in the 200 free, 500 free, and 200 breast, in addition to winning the 400 IM. He was also a part of three NCAA-winning relays, two of which set NCAA records with the Frenchmen swimming the fastest 100-breast split ever on the 4×100 Medley Relay.

Training under Phelps’ long-time coach Bob Bowman, Marchand has not only brought the 400 IM to new heights but also French Swimming. At the 2021 Olympics, France took home just one swimming medal, Florent Manaudou’s silver from the 50 free, but at the 2023 World Championships, the French walked away with six medals, four of them gold and three of those four belonging to Marchand, who also claimed the top prize in the 200 fly and 200 IM.

While Marchand has three other individual events to swim in Paris, with the 200 breast joining the aforementioned 200s, the 400 IM is the first event on his plate, and no issues of fatigue should have any factor in his attempt to win what will likely be France’s first medal of the meet.

“Pumped Up Kalisz” – Foster the Swimmer

(photo: Jack Spitser)

Unlikely to dethrone Marchand but certainly in a strong position to the podium are the American duo of Carson Foster and Chase Kalisz. Foster’s appearance in Paris will be a redemption, of sorts, after coming so close in multiple events at the 2021 US Olympic Trials. After a heartbreaking 3rd in this event three years ago, Foster left nothing to chance as he attacked the race from the get-go and ultimately finished first in a time of 4:07.64, a time that ranks him first in the world this season by a margin of over a second.

Foster, who twice at World Championships has finished behind Marchand, finds himself in a familiar spot as he sits second in the entry lists with his silver medal-winning performance from Fukuoka of 4:06.56.

The 2024 World Championships notwithstanding, and more on those later, Foster is likely the only swimmer to have a shot of usurping Marchand. He is the only other swimmer since Covid to have swum under 4:07, having done so twice.

However, Foster is not the only active swimmer to have a PB under 4:07. Compatriot and future training partner at Texas, Kalisz, has a PB of 4:05.90 and in the gap between Phelps/Ryan Lochte and today was one of the dominant swimmers in the event. He won silver in the event at the 2016 Olympics in 4:06.75 and improved one step on the podium to gold in 2021, taking the title in 4:09.42 ahead of teammate and training partner Jay Litherland‘s 4:10.28.

His success has not been limited to the Olympics, however, as he won four medals in the event at the World Championships, including gold in 2017. In fact, across the IM events, Kalisz has medaled at every international meet the US has competed in since 2013 until last year.

After claiming bronze (4:07.47) at the 2022 Worlds behind Marchand and Foster, Kalisz failed to podium in  Fukuoka. He finished 4th in the 400 in 4:10.23, almost a full second back of 3rd and just .14 ahead of 5th place.

Yet these results do not spell doom and gloom entirely for Kalisz and his prospects at a third Olympic medal. His performance at the US Trials, 4:09.39, was faster than both his prelims and finals swims in Fukuoka, which might mean he is back on track. However, just because Kalisz is better than he was last summer, it doesn’t mean he is the favorite for the bronze.

“Seto Fire to The Race”

Daiya Seto courtesy World Aquatics

While Kalisz helped fill the gap left by Phelps and Lochte, he wasn’t alone as both Kosuke Hagino and Daiya Seto were perennial medal winners in the event. While Hagino has since retired from the sport, Seto, who, like Kalisz, is 30 years old, is still swimming and poses a great threat to the American’s medal chances.

Like Kalisz, the Japanese swimmer has medaled (in either IM event) at every international championship from 2013 on, with the exception of his home Olympics, where he failed to make the final in the 400 despite entering as the top seed. He finished 9th in the prelims, .32 away from tying for 8th.

At the 2022 Worlds, Seto finished 6th in 4:11.93 but rebounded at home in 2023, taking the bronze in 4:09.41. Just this past February, Seto repeated his podium position, claiming bronze in 4:12.51.

In Fukuoka, Seto outsplit Kalisz on the last 50 by 1.25 (28.59 to 29.84) and turned what was a deficit of .43 into a margin of victory of .82. However, such heroic antics may not be enough to help the veteran Japanese swimmer win another medal as his compatriot Tomoyuki Matsushita employed a similar tactic recently coming home in a blistering 27.38.

At Japan’s Olympic Trials, Seto finished 2nd in 4:10.84 behind Matsushita, but recently overtook him in the world rankings as Seto clocked a 4:09.68 at the Sette Colli Trophy meet in Rome just a month ago and now sits 7th amongst the world this season.

Matsushita, who will turn 19 in the middle of swimming portions of the Olympics, ranks two spots behind Seto as the 9th fastest this season. The youngster, who won the 2023 Junior World Championships in a then PB of 4:10.97, dropped a 27.38 last 50 to break the meet record by nearly a second and come within a second of the Junior World Record.

The 18-year-old has since dropped that time down to 4:10.04 and sits on the precipice of the sub-4:10 club, an exclusive group of just 22 swimmers, and while he has the opportunity to he still has a long way to catch two of those club members, both of whom are in prime position to medal.

“Don’t Dream It’s Over” – Crowded House

Brendon Smith (photo: Jack Spitser)

The event is sure to be a crowded one. Despite there being just 16 entrants, with no semifinals, any swimmer besides probably Marchand and Foster needs to make sure that they put in a strong prelims swim.

On opposite sides of the 2023-2024 World Rankings but with home countries very close to one another are New Zealand’s Lewis Clareburt and Australia’s Brendon Smith. Smith, who has a PB of 4:09.27, was one of the many surprises for the Australian team in Tokyo. After posting the fastest time in prelims and setting a new Oceanian Swim Record, Smith claimed bronze in 4:10.38, claiming the nation’s first medal of the meet.

Since then has helped the Australian men in the 4×200 free relay win silver in 2022 but has failed to medal in this event, finishing 5th in both 2022 (4:11.36) and 2023 (4:10.37). However, despite sitting 10th in the World rankings and entering as the 9th seed, Smith’s time from the Australian Trials of 4:10.18 is his fourth fastest time ever and faster than both of his results from the last two World Champs he has competed in.

credit Fabio Cetti

Breaking out in 2019 with a bronze medal at the Gwangju Worlds, New Zealand’s Clareburt, like Smith, had struggled to replicate that early success until recently. After posting a national record of 4:12.07 in 2019, Clareburt lowered it again at the Olympics, swimming 4:09.49 in the prelims and sat 2nd heading into finals but fell to 7th as he stopped the clock at 4:11.22.

At the next two Worlds, Clareburt would final in both but failed to repeat that podium position. In 2022, he placed 4th behind Kalisz in 4:10.98, and in 2023, he fell to 6th with a time of 4:11.29, and 2019 may have been a one-and-done until this February when the Kiwi climbed to the top of the podium. Perhaps learning to take things a little slower, Clareburt was 5th in prelims (4:13.61) but dropped the hammer in the finals, swimming 4:09.72 to claim his first individual gold at Worlds. However, that time was enough for Clarburt as three months later, at the Sydney Open, he was the slimmest margin (.01) away from his PB and National & Oceanian record of 4:08.70 as he posted a then season leading time of 4:08.71.

The New Zealand record of 4:08.70 comes from Clareburt’s 2022 Commonwealth Games win over Smith and Duncan Scott, a field that notably did not include any English swimmers in the final.

“Dreamer” – Europe

Clareburt was not the only swimmer to take away hardware and confidence from the 2024 Worlds (I did mention that we would talk about it more and hope it is not too much scrolling back and forth).

Great Britain’s Max Litchfield, who, outside of a silver at the 2016 Short Course Worlds, has never medaled on the international level, swam his fastest time at the Doha Worlds since the prelims of the 2021 Olympics. In Doha, Litchfield swam his way to a silver medal, overtaking Foster on the last 100 to stop the clock in 4:10.40, just .20 slower than his 8th place prelims swim in Tokyo and faster than his equal 4th place finish in the final of 4:10.59. Coincidentally the same position as in 2016, where the Brit finished in 4th albeit in a slower time of 4:11.62.

Since then, the 29-year-old has only gotten better. He dropped a new personal best of 4:09.14, improving up his seven-year-old former best of 4:09.62 from the 2017 Worlds. The new mark also overtook the British national record of 4:09.18 held by Duncan Scott, launching him up the world rankings. He now sits ranked 3rd this season, with less than two weeks until the event starts and is the 15th fastest performer of all time.

Litchfield was not alone in making the final in Doha and being a threat to make the final in Paris. Italy’s Alberto Razzetti, the national record holder and 19th-fastest performer ever, tied for 5th at the 2024 Worlds, stopping the clock in 4:13.05 but had just a few months earlier broken the national record by swimming 4:09.29 at the Italian Open Championships and breaking Luca Marin‘s 16-year-old record.

While Razzetti has never medaled in this event in a World Championships he did win the silver in the 200 fly and bronze in the 200 IM in Doha. Additionally, at the 2022 European Championships in Rome, the Italian won gold in this event, improving upon his silver from 2020. Certainly, a contender to the final, Razzetti’s medal chances may line up in other events, but as the 4th fastest performer this season, he definitely has the skill and ability to repeat and even better his 8th place showing from 2021, where he finished in 4:11.32.

At the recent 2024 European Championships, three swimmers set themselves apart from the field and swam their way to the top of the World Rankings and into contention for the final. Claiming gold in a new personal best and national record was Greece’s Apostolos Papastamos, whose 4:10.83 erased his own nearly five-year-old record of 4:11.93. In 2021, the Greek placed 14th in the event, hitting the wall in 4:12.50.

Looking to follow in the footsteps of two of their nation’s greats, Laszlo Cseh and David Verrasztro, the Hungarian pair of Balazs Hollo and Gabor Zombori stopped the clocked in 4:11.51 and 4:11,70 to claim the remaining two other medals. The time was a PB for Zombori and was a strong return to form for Hollo, who was 4:10.87 in 2022, but both will likely need to be right around 4:10 to have to final.

The Verdict

Despite Marchand’s rather lackluster performance at the French Trials, nothing suggests that he was unprepared for his opportunity to shine in front of his home nation. More than likely, the Frenchman was not fully rested for the meet and, more than likely could rattle his world record in the finals. After Marchand, Foster seems to be a shoo-in for the silver after having finished in the same spot at both the 2022 and 2023 Worlds unless something drastic were to happen.

After those two, the battle for bronze will be tight. Both Kalisz and Seto have better PBs than Foster, but age may be catching up to them. Neither has broken 4:07 this decade and while Seto was 4:07.92 in April of 2023, he was just 4:09.41 at Worlds three months later. While I loathe splitting the pair, SwimSwam (mostly me) actually thinks that neither will take the bronze medal as New Zealand’s Clareburt looks poised to earn his country’s first medal at the Olympics since 1996 (unless Erika Fairweather beats him to it). His consistency this season, being under 4:10 and being just .01 off his PB, gives him a slight edge over the veteran pair.

After those five, Max Litchfield looks best positioned to make the final, having already done so both in 2016 and 2021. He could even contest with the aforementioned three for the bronze but would need to reach even greater heights to do so, while Seto and Kalisz have the experience of swimming in the 4:07 range, and with these Games likely their last they will do everything in their power to medal.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Tristan Jankovics (CAN) – The OSU swimmer and native of Canada dropped boatloads of time at the Canadian Swimming Trials in May, having first set a PB of 4:15.68 in the prelims and then dropping even more time in the finals to stop the clock in 4:11.74 clearing the 4:12.50 OQT in the process. Just .33 off the super-suited Canadian record, Jankovics, who placed 8th behind Marchand at the 2024 NCAAs, could be in line to drop even more time and make the final, being the first Canadian to do so since 2008. Regardless of if he does make the final, Jankovics, who is the 13th seed, will make some history for Canada as he is the first entrant in the event for his nation since 2012.