Ending the Drought: Countries That Might Win Historic Medals at Paris 2024 Olympic Games

It’s almost guaranteed that every Olympics, the biggest countries in the sport (like the United States and Australia) are going to win a healthy bundle of medals. Many countries– especially the smaller ones without as deep of an athlete selection pool– will achieve great success through the likes of a big-name swimmer or two and win a medal for the duration of that swimmer’s career, they’ll retire, and the country will have to wait until the next big name arises to continue the on/off medal winning cycle. Other nations have yet to see their first Olympic podium. 

With the recent release of the Paris Olympic swimming entries, I decided to look through this spreadsheet and see which countries had a shot at winning their first medal in a long time, hopefully ending their medal droughts. For a country to appear on this list, their most recent Olympic medal must have been won in Rio 2016 or earlier, in open water swimming or in the pool. The following fifteen countries are the ones that I believe have the best chance at ending their medal droughts and seeing their national flag raised on a podium in Paris. 

AUSTRIA (last medaled in Beijing 2008)

Austrian middle-distance specialist Felix Auboeck will be competing in the 200, 400, and 800 freestyles in Paris. Auboeck’s best chance to medal lies in the 400 freestyle, in which he’s seeded seventh. The entries list provided by World Aquatics does not account for his recent national record-breaking 400 win at the 2024 European Championships in a time of 3:43.24. His updated time would place him sixth in this event, slightly ahead of Brazil’s Guilherme Costa. He is seeded 18th in the 200 distance and 29th in the 800. 

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (never medaled)

18-year-old Lana Pudar has been a consistent name in the women’s butterfly events for the past few years, most recently with a bronze medal in the 200 butterfly at the Doha World Championships and a second place finish in the same event at this year’s European championships. Pudar, ranked 6th in the 200 butterfly and 10th in the 100, stands a chance to take home the Balkan nation’s first ever Olympic medal. 

CZECH REPUBLIC (never medaled)

Barbora Seemanova, having achieved the Olympic Qualifying Time in four events (100/200 freestyle, 100 butterfly, 200 IM) is the Czech Republic’s best chance at their first-ever medal in the pool. While she is seeded fifth in the 200 freestyle, she has an uphill battle behind big names in current world record holder Ariarne Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan, and Siobhan Haughey. Her current personal best of 1:55.12 places her just over a second behind Haughey, the current third seed. 

GREECE (last medaled in Rio 2016)

While Greece has only medaled in open water swimming (Spyridon Gianniotis, silver in the 10km) since the conclusion of the first Olympics in 1896, three swimmers (coincidentally all with the first name Apostolos) look to earn the country’s first pool swimming medals in over a century. Apostolos Christou, seeded fourth in a tight 100 backstroke field, stands just 0.19 seconds away from the top seed, Ryan Murphy. Christou is also competing in the 200 backstroke, seeded 18th alongside fellow countryman Apostolos Siskos, who is seeded seventh. Apostolos Papastamos, seeded tenth in the 400 IM, has a longer road to the podium than his backstroke teammates, with a 4:10.83, placing him almost three seconds off of current third seed, Daiya Seto. 

IRELAND (last medaled in Atlanta 1996)

Ireland appears to be in a strong position to take home their first medal since Michelle Smith’s controversial performance at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta, with Mona McSharry in the women’s breaststroke and Daniel Wiffen in the distance freestyle events. McSharry is seeded sixth in the 200 breaststroke and seventh in the 100 distance, a well-timed personal best could place her on the podium. Wiffen is in great position as the second seed in the 1500 and the third in the 800. Wiffen looks to challenge reigning double-gold medalist Bobby Finke for the titles this year, and their competition  should provide some exciting races. 

ISRAEL (never medaled)

Anastasia Gorbenko is competing in four events this summer (as of the initial entry list), the 100 breaststroke, 200 backstroke, and 200 and 400 IM. Her best chance at winning a medal for her home country of Israel comes in the 400 IM, where she is seeded fifth. Gorbenko is also seeded seventh in the stacked field of the 200 IM. She’s entered in some of the most highly anticipated events for this year’s games and she’d need some stellar swims in her events to earn a spot on the podium. If the 20-year-old can pull it off, she’d be Israel’s first Olympic swimming medalist.

LITHUANIA (last medaled in London 2012)

Lithuania’s best chance at medals this summer come from national record holder Danas Rapsys and world record holder Ruta Meilutyte. Meilutyte also happens to be Lithuania’s most recent swimming medalist, with her 100 breaststroke gold in 2012. Due to some whereabouts failures, she spent some time away from the sport but came back in full force at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships, winning three gold medals and breaking the 50 breaststroke world record in 2023. She is seeded second in the 100 breaststroke at this year’s Olympics, and remains one of the favorites for the podium. Danas Rapsys is competing in the 100, 200, and 400 freestyles, and his best chance at a medal lies in the 200 freestyle, where he is seeded eighth amongst a tightly packed crowd of swimmers going 1:44s. 

NEW ZEALAND (last medaled in Atlanta 1996)

The duo of Erika Fairweather and Lewis Clareburt look to bring home New Zealand’s first swimming medals since Danyon Loader’s standout performance at the 1996 games. Fairweather became New Zealand’s first ever world champion, winning the 400 freestyle in Doha at the 2024 competition. She’ll attempt to find success in the same event, seeded fourth in the 400 amongst a highly competitive field including Ariarne Titmus, Katie Ledecky, and Summer McIntosh. Lewis Clareburt appears to be something of a dark horse in the men’s 400 IM, where he is seeded seventh. He holds the Oceanian record in the event, and could be a serious contender for third place behind Leon Marchand and Carson Foster in his main discipline. Fairweather is also competing in the 200 and 800 freestyles, where she is seeded eighth in both. Clareburt is seeded 12th in the 200 IM and 24th in the 200 butterfly.

POLAND (last medaled in Athens 2004)

Poland’s most recent medals come from Otylia Jedrzejczak in 2004, with a gold in the 200 butterfly and two silvers in the 100 butterfly and 400 freestyle. Krzysztof Chmielewski looks to bring another medal home for the Poles in the 200 butterfly, seeded fourth behind Leon Marchand, Kristof Milak, and Tomoru Honda. His twin brother Michal Chmielewski is seeded 15th in the same event. Katia Wasick, a sprint specialist, is seeded second behind longtime sprint veteran Sarah Sjostrom in the 50 freestyle. Both Krzysztof Chmielewski and Wasick have earned World Championship medals in their best events. 

PORTUGAL (never medaled)

Diogo Ribeiro, the world junior record holder in the 50 meter butterfly and reigning world champion in both the 50 and 100 butterfly events, has a chance to become Portugal’s first ever medalist in the sport. Despite his seemingly-low 15th seed in the 100 butterfly, Ribeiro has proven his competitive drive at the past few World Championships as a multi-time finalist. The young star is still relatively new in his international career, but looks to make some big waves in Paris at his first Olympics. He is also entered in the 50 (26th) and 100 freestyle (17th).

 ROMANIA (last medaled in Athens 2004)

The name on everyone’s mind in both the 100 and 200 freestyles is none other than former 100 freestyle world record holder David Popovici. After a blistering 46.88 (just 0.08 seconds off of Zhanle Pan’s new record) and a 1:43.13 in the 100 and 200 freestyles at the European Championships in June, Popovici looks poised to make some serious waves in Paris. The 19-year-old is seeded first in the 200 and second in the 100. If he wins a medal in either event, he will earn Romania’s first swimming medal in 20 years.

SOUTH KOREA (last medaled in London 2012)

A trio of fourth seeds in Woomin Kim (400 freestyle, 3:42.42), Sunwoo Hwang (200 freestyle, 1:44.40), and South Korea’s Men’s 4×200 freestyle relay team (7:01.94) set up South Korea nicely for a chance at their first medal since Park Tae-Hwan’s pair of silver medals in London in 2012. Sunwoo Hwang is only a tenth of a second from 200 freestyle third seed Matt Richards, and Woomin Kim stands just over a second off of 400 freestyle third seed Elijah Winnington. Both men should contribute significantly to their country’s 800 freestyle relay, which placed fourth behind Great Britain, the United States, and China at the 2023 World Championships. 

SPAIN (last medaled in Rio 2016)

Spain’s Hugo Gonzalez is entered in three events this summer, seeded within the top nine swimmers in all three events. Gonzalez, a standout IM/backstroker, is entered in the 200 backstroke (seeded 3rd), 100 backstroke (6th), and 200 IM (9th). The Cal swimmer is one of three from the university to be seeded within the top four in the 200 backstroke, behind veteran Ryan Murphy and Olympic newcomer Keaton Jones. If the three swimmers can upset the top seed, Hungary’s Hubert Kos, we could see a podium made entirely of Golden Bears. 

TAIWAN (never medaled)

Kuan-Hung (Eddie) Wang, one of the best Taiwanese swimmers in the country’s history, is seeded ninth in the 200 butterfly for this year’s Olympics with a time of 1:54.53. Wang, a finalist in the 200 butterfly at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka, is slightly over two seconds off of Leon Marchand’s top time of 1:52.43 and around a second and a half from the third-seeded swimmer, Tomoru Honda. In the event that Eddie Wang throws down a monster swim in Paris, he has the chance to win Taiwan’s first ever medal in the pool. 

TURKEY (never medaled)

Young star Kuzey Tuncelli recently came crashing into the men’s distance scene with a whopping 12-second personal best in the 1500 at European Juniors, breaking the world junior record by over four seconds in a time of 14:41.89. While he isn’t ranked highly in the entries lists, Tuncelli will be a force to be reckoned with in both the 800 and the 1500 this summer, establishing himself as a 16-year-old with a lot to show amongst a sea of veterans.