2024 Olympic Games: Ranking Events By Podium Predictability (Men’s Edition)

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
• SwimSwam Preview Index

Swimming competition begins in Paris in just five days from now, kicking off on July 27th. There will be nine days of competition at La Défense Arena.

Like the women’s side, we’ve put together a list of the predictability of the podium in Paris. We also have more detailed previews of each event in our preview index.

BARRING UPSET, THIS IS THE PODIUM

• Men’s 200 fly: Leon Marchand, Kristof Milak, and Tomoru Honda seem to have a lock on the podium. They might get a run for their money from youngsters Thomas Heilman and Ilya Kharun but the 3 seem to be a step ahead of the field. 
• Men’s 800 free: Sam Short, Daniel Wiffen, and Bobby Finke appear to be the leaders of the event. The three are the only entries under the 7:40 mark and have a 2.5 second difference over the rest of the field. 

FOUR FIGHTING IT OUT FOR THREE MEDALS

• Men’s 400 IM: Leon Marchand is the clear favorite as the World Record holder and holds the fastest time of the field by three seconds. Behind Marchand sits Carson Foster, Chase Kalisz, and Lewis Clareburt. Clareburt had a huge swim to win gold at 2024 Worlds, may his momentum pull him to another international medal?
• Men’s 50 free: The 50 free posted a debate for the SwimSwam preview on podium picks but with the speed of the splash and dash, a tie might help figure out the “three medal” situation. A three way tie for silver (cough cough Phelps, Le Close, Cseh) or a tie for bronze. Cam McEvoy, Florent Manaudou, Caeleb Dressel, and Ben Proud seem to be the favorites all with best times in the 21-low range while the rest of the field is at least two-tenths behind. 
• Men’s 100 breast: This one is more of a 5 swimmers battling for three medals. Like the 50 free, a tie would be the solution. It happened last summer as Nic Fink, Arno Kamminga, and Nicolo Martinenghi tied for silver behind Qin Haiyang. The biggest difference is Adam Peaty joining the picture again. 
• Men’s 200 back: This event borders the first category but Keaton Jones seems to throw a curveball here adding a 4th contender. Ryan Murphy will look to win the Olympic title but will face Hubert Kos and Hugo Gonzalez as well. 
• Men’s 100 free: This one seems like a toss up. It’s got two World Record holders with David Popovici and Pan Zhanle, the 2016 Champion Kyle Chalmers, and hometown favorite Maxime Grousset. 
• Men’s 400 free: This event has greatly improved over the last Olympic cycle and Lukas Martens, Sam Short, Elijah Winnington, and Kim Woo-min seem to be the 4 leaders although Felix Auboeck could also throw his name into the mix. 
• Men’s 1500 free: Bobby Finke seems to be the favorite but Daniel Wiffen, Gregorio Paltrinieri, and Florian Wellbrock are also in the mix. 
• Men’s 800 free relay: Great Britain seems to be the favorite but the US, Australia, and South Korea also have their names in the running.
• Men’s 400 free relay: After an underwhelming 100 free at Australian Trials, the Australian’s seem to lose their advantage especially with the return of Dressel for the US. For now, it seems to look as if the US is ahead but has Australia, China, and Italy behind it.

THE WINNER IS CLEAR. THE REST?

• Men’s 200 free: David Popovici seems to be the clear favorite and could potentially break the World Record. After Popovici, it could be Luke Hobson, Lukas Martens, Hwang Sunwoo, Duncan Scott, or Matthew Richards. 
• Men’s 200 IM: Leon Marchand enters as a favorite, but a smaller favorite than the 400 IM. Behind him, it could be Carson Foster, Shaine Casas, Duncan Scott, or Wang Shun. 
• Men’s 400 medley relay: The US are the clear favorite here but after that, China, Australia, France, Great Britain also look to have solid potential.

CHAOS PENDING

• Men’s 100 back: Xu Jiayu leads the way this season but Ryan Murphy, Hunter Armstrong, Thomas Ceccon, and Apostolos Christou are right behind. 
• Men’s 200 breast: Matt Fallon posted an American Record at US Trials to lead the World this season. Leon Marchand is entered in the event with the 200 fly double for now. Qin Haiyang won the event at 2023 Worlds and is also in the field. 
• Men’s 100 fly: Caeleb Dressel is looking better everyday and enters as the World Record holder but did not swim at Worlds last year as he missed the US team after his time away from the pool. Kristof Milak also has spent time out of the pool but seems to be improving but the field also features Noe Ponti, Josh Liendo, and Maxime Grousset to name a few.