You are working on Staging1

What Does Vegas Think Is Going to Happen In Swimming at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?

You’ve read what we have to say about the predicted winners in swimming competition at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, but what does Vegas think is going to happen?

Odds gathered from DraftKings; they may vary slightly from site-to-site.

The Paris 2024 Olympic Games have the most-robust swimming wagering odds that the sport has ever seen. We were able to easily find odds on everything but the medley relays and 800 free relays – though current odds are only available for winners (no podium options like they have in horse racing).

How do Odds Work?

There are full descriptions (and calculators) at sites like this, but basically, the lower the number, the more likely the prediction is to happen. An odds of -110 is essentially a “50/50” chance; positive numbers are less than 50/50, and more negative numbers are more than 50/50 chances.

As those numbers change, so do the payouts. Numbers like the -900 on the Australian women’s 400 free relay odds mean that it is extremely-likely to happen. A $10 wager would return your original $10 + $1.11 in profit. In cases like that, the odds are basically saying “we think there’s some small chance of a DQ, and otherwise that’s what’s going to happen.”

Other races have no clear favorite, with any winner having a positive odds number, meaning any bet will return more than the original bet in profit.

Where Does SwimSwam and Vegas Disagree?

  • SwimSwam has less confidence in the two most recent World Record holders and top seeds Pan Zhanle and David Popovici than Vegas does.
  • Vegas thinks that the defending World Champion Ryan Murphy is going to win gold, while SwimSwam picked the World Record holder Thomas Ceccon.
  • Vegas is predicting the World Record holder Adam Peaty to win gold, while SwimSwam predicted the defending World Champion Qin Haiyang to win.
  • In the 200 fly, SwimSwam thinks that Kristof Milak will rebound from his tumultuous year to win gold, while Vegas thinks that the hometown hero Leon Marchand of France will win.

SwimSwam Predictions vs. Women’s Odds

EVENT GOLD (SS) SILVER (SS) BRONZE (SS) Favorite (DK) 2nd (DK) 3rd (DK)
50 freestyle Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) Kasia Wasick (POL) Gretchen Walsh (USA) Sarah Sjostrom -200 Kasia Wasick +500
100 freestyle Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) Siobhan Haughey (HKG) Mollie O’Callghan +120 Sarah Sjostrom +250
200 freestyle Ariarne Titmus (AUS) Mollie O’Callaghan (AUS) Siobhan Haughey (HKG) Ariarne Titmus -170 Mollie O’Callaghan +150
400 freestyle Ariarne Titmus (AUS) Katie Ledecky (USA) Summer McIntosh (CAN) Ariarne Titmus -250 Summer McIntosh +350
800 freestyle Katie Ledecky (USA) Ariarne Titmus (AUS) Lani Pallister (AUS) Katie Ledecky -400 Ariarne Titmus +300
1500 freestyle Katie Ledecky (USA) Simona Quadarella (ITA) Katie Grimes (USA) Katie Ledecky -3500 Simona Quadarella +1300
100 backstroke Regan Smith (USA) Kaylee McKeown (AUS) Katharine Berkoff (USA) Regan Smith -125 Kaylee McKeown +110
Mollie O’Callaghan +700
200 backstroke Kaylee McKeown (AUS) Regan Smith (USA) Phoebe Bacon (USA) Kaylee McKeown -185 Regan Smith +160
100 breaststroke Tang Qianting (CHN) Tatjana Smith (RSA) Lilly King (USA) Tang Qianting -225 Lilly King +350
200 breaststroke Tatjana Smith (neé Schoenmaker) (RSA) Kate Douglass (USA) Tes Schouten (NED) Tatjana Smith -145 Kate Douglass +130
100 butterfly Gretchen Walsh (USA) Torri Huske (USA) Maggie MacNeil (CAN) Gretchen Walsh -170 Torri Huske +250
200 butterfly Summer McIntosh (CAN) Regan Smith (USA) Elizabeth Dekkers (AUS) Summer McIntosh -155 Regan Smith +150
Zhang Yufei +800
200 IM Kaylee McKeown (AUS) Kate Douglass (USA) Summer McIntosh (CAN) Kaylee McKeown +200 Kate Douglass +200
Sumer McIntosh +225
400 IM Summer McIntosh (CAN) Katie Grimes (USA) Emma Weyant (USA) Summer McIntosh -1400 Freya Colbert +700
4×100 freestyle relay Australia United States China Australia -900 USA +450 China +800

SwimSwam Predictions vs. Men’s Odds

EVENT GOLD (SS) SILVER (SS) BRONZE (SS) Favorite (DK) 2nd (DK) 3rd (DK)
50 freestyle Cam McEvoy (AUS) Ben Proud (GBR) Florent Manaudou (FRA) Cam McEvoy +100 Caeleb Dressel +200 Ben Proud +400
100 freestyle Kyle Chalmers (AUS) Maxime Grousset (FRA) David Popovici (ROU) Pan Zhanle +100 David Popovici +160 Jack Alexy +600
200 freestyle David Popovici (ROU) Lukas Märtens (GER) Hwang Sun-Woo (KOR) David Popovici -250 Lukas Maertens +450
400 freestyle Sam Short (AUS) Lukas Märtens (GER) Kim Woo-min (KOR) Lukas Maertens +120 Sam Short +200
800 freestyle Sam Short (AUS) Bobby Finke (USA) Daniel Wiffen (IRL) Sam Short +160 Daniel Wiffen +225
1500 freestyle Bobby Finke (USA) Daniel Wiffen (IRL) Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) Bobby Finke +125 Daniel Wiffen +225
100 backstroke Thomas Ceccon (ITA) Ryan Murphy (USA) Hunter Armstrong (USA) Ryan Murphy +200 Thomas Ceccon +250
Apolostolos Christou +350
200 backstroke Ryan Murphy (USA) Hubert Kos (HUN) Hugo Gonzalez (ESP) Ryan Murphy +125 Hubert Kos +175
100 breaststroke Qin Haiyang (CHN) Adam Peaty (GBR) Nic Fink (USA) Adam Peaty -125 Qin Haiyang +100 Nic Fink +900
200 breaststroke Qin Haiyang (CHN) Leon Marchand (FRA) Zac Stubblety-Cook (AUS) Qin Haiyang +100 Zac Stubblety-Cook +350
100 butterfly Caeleb Dressel (USA) Josh Liendo (CAN) Noe Ponti (SUI) Caeleb Dressel +175 Josh Liendo +300
200 butterfly Kristof Milak (HUN) Leon Marchand (FRA) Ilya Kharun (CAN) Leon Marchand +100 Kristof Milak +175
200 IM Leon Marchand (FRA) Wang Shun (CHN) Duncan Scott (GBR) Leon Marchand -110 Wang Shun +150
400 IM Leon Marchand (FRA) Carson Foster (USA) Lewis Clareburt (NZL) Leon Marchand -500 Carson Foster +400
4×100 freestyle relay United States Great Britain Australia USA -700 Australia +600 China +900

In This Story

52
Leave a Reply

Subscribe
Notify of

52 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Swimz
3 months ago

100 backstroke will present 2022 champ Ceccon, 2023 Champ Murphy, 2024 Champ Armstrong..do not forgot whether you like it or not 2024 doha also was a world championships….

“Vegas thinks that the defending World Champion Ryan Murphy is going to win gold, while SwimSwam picked the World Record holder Thomas Ceccon.”…

Viking Steve
3 months ago

Finke 800 free
Kos 200 Back
Milak 200 Fly
Qin 100 Breast
Chalmers 100 Free

Best Men’s value bets

Last edited 3 months ago by Viking Steve
Viking Steve
3 months ago

I like Titmus 200free and 800 free as well as Mckeown for 100 back as well as Douglass 200 breast for value bets on women’s side

USA women’s free relay also good value bet

Last edited 3 months ago by Viking Steve
Backstrokebro
3 months ago

Value picks:

Haughey 100 free
MOC 200 free
Ledecky 800 free
Huske 100 fly
Mckeown 100 back
Chalmers/Alexy 100 free
Short 400 free
Finke 800 free
Qin 100 breast
Shun 200 IM
anybody other than the US in the men’s relay

Octavio Gupta
Reply to  Backstrokebro
3 months ago

Bovada still has Ceccon at 4-1 in the 100 back.

AAAA
Reply to  Octavio Gupta
3 months ago

He’s gone 51 mid once in his life, leading off a relay. Never been nearly that good in a championship final.

AAAA
Reply to  AAAA
3 months ago

Hunter at 15-1 is better value.

Barty’s Bakery
Reply to  AAAA
3 months ago

Ceccon broke the world record in the individual final at worlds. Not the relay.

Barty’s Bakery
3 months ago

Lol SportsBet has the Aussie women 4×2 at $1.01. So if you bet $1,000 and won you would get $10

AAAA
3 months ago

The women’s 100 breast has been such a crapshoot recently. If we can crack, we can unlock some parlays.

On FanDuel, Ruta is 12-1 and Tatianna is 11-1. If you alternate those two in some parlays, and one of them hits, you can make a lot of money. Hunter is 15-1 and I think he has a decent chance to win too. Any thoughts on other women in that 100 breast who could boost those parlay odds?

For instance, you can parlay Ari 400 free, Leon 400 IM, Sjostrom 50 free, and Pop 200 free for + 234, meaning you can make 2.34 times your money if all of those hit. I like those odds.

If you add Hunter Armstrong… Read more »

Octavio Gupta
Reply to  AAAA
3 months ago

Parlays are sucker’s bets.

AAAA
Reply to  Octavio Gupta
3 months ago

You know nothing

96Swim
3 months ago

I’m surprised the Australian women 4×200 free relay aren’t bigger favorites. Maybe that factors in the possibility of a DQ. Other surprises are American men 4×100 free relay being such a big favorite and Titmus being favored by that much over MOC in the 200 free. Given how close that was a trials that seems like it could go either way.

HuntDownHypocrite
3 months ago

Domain names in sport gambling are supposed to make out their odds out of computational work on database by modelling or machine learning or even AI at present and the odds being listed are subject to modification as competition data being fed consistently during a big event, e.g. OG now. These odds are purely data driven in comparison with the swimswam.com previews that are tampered by mankind’s preferences.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

Read More »