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Scoring Out The Olympics With The NCAA Format: U.S. Leads Through Day 3

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

From a macro perspective, medals are the be-all and end-all in quantifying success at the Olympic Games, but we all know an athlete or nation can flourish even if it means they don’t ultimately make it onto the podium.

Thanks to Michael White, the head coach and CEO of Storm Aquatics in Wisconsin, we’re able to see how the standings in the 2024 Olympic pool swimming competition would look if we used the same scoring format we see at several domestic meets, including the NCAA Championships.

Scoring Format

  • 16-place scoring system: 20-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
  • Relays are worth double points
  • 9th through 16th-place finishers come from semi-finals
  • If semi-finalist who missed final was faster than someone in the final, that was corrected

WOMEN’S RANKINGS

Rank Country Points
1 United States 167.5
2 Australia 148
3 China 105
4 Canada 102
5 Great Britain 65
6 Italy 46.5
7 Japan 45
8 Sweden 43
9 France 37
10 Germany 32
11 Ireland 29
11 Brazil 29
13 South Africa 28
14 Netherlands 27
14 New Zealand 27
16 Hungary 24
17 Hong Kong 20
18 Czech Republic 19
19 Belgium 16
20 Denmark 12

MEN’S RANKINGS

Rank Country Points
1 United States 136.5
2 Great Britain 112.5
3 Germany 111.5
4 Italy 102
5 Australia 99
6 China 83
7 France 46
8 Hungary 44
9 Japan 40
10 Spain 31
11 South Korea 30
12 Canada 28
12 Greece 28
12 Brazil 28
15 Netherlands 24
16 Lithuania 20.5
17 Romania 20
18 South Africa 14
19 New Zealand 13
20 Poland 12.5

COMBINED RANKINGS

Rank Country Points
1 United States 304
2 Australia 247
3 China 188
4 Great Britain 177.5
5 Italy 148.5
6 Germany 143.5
7 Canada 130
8 Japan 85
9 France 83
10 Hungary 68
11 Brazil 57
12 Netherlands 51
13 Sweden 47
14 South Africa 42
15 New Zealand 40
16 Spain 36
17 South Korea 30
18 Ireland 29
19 Greece 28
20 Lithuania 27.5

Observations

  • Despite Australia holding the slight edge atop the medal table thus far with three gold medals, the U.S. has 11 total podium appearances and that depth is on display with the Americans leading the points standings for women, men and combined.
  • The U.S. has notably won a medal in five of six men’s events, while the women have had two events with double medalists in the 100 fly (Torri Huske and Gretchen Walsh) and the 400 IM (Katie Grimes and Emma Weyant).
  • Australia is a clear 2nd on the women’s side thanks to the relay victory, the 1-2 from Mollie O’Callaghan and Ariarne Titmus in the 200 free, and Titmus’ win in the 400 free.
  • The British men hold down the 2nd spot for the men despite only two silver medals, with 4th-place finishes from Max Litchfield (400 IM), Duncan Scott (200 free) and a 5th in the 400 free relay boosting their tally.
  • Germany is a somewhat surprise to sit 3rd for the men, thanks in large part to Lukas Märtens winning the 400 free, placing 5th in the 200 free, and the 400 free relay also taking 5th. Melvin Imoudu and Lucas Matzerath were also surprises to finish 4-5 in the 100 breast.
  • China and Canada are jockeying for 3rd on the women’s side, which is no surprise, while the Italians sit 4th for the men, ahead of Australia, which not many would’ve predicted coming in.
  • In the combined standings, the U.S. is well clear of Australia, Australia is 59 points ahead of China, and then there’s a massive drop-off after Canada in 7th. Among the top seven countries (USA, AUS, CHN, GBR, ITA, GER, CAN), Germany would have to be considered the biggest surprise. In addition the performances from their men, Angelina Köhler (4th in 100 fly) and Isabel Gose (5th in 400 free) have top-five finishes.

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NOT the frontman of Metallica
3 months ago

Sounds like coping mechanism to me

H1H2
3 months ago

I think that this is interesting, but clearly favours larger nations (such as the US or China) where there is capacity for greater depth. It does not necessarily reflect the quality of a nation’s swimming performance programs.

The traditional medal scoring is a better indicator of this (i.e. Australia, despite having less depth in its athletes due to pop size, can be seen to have really good quality of athletes despite pop – this is also true for some of the smaller Euros etc.). This is also largely overcome by the sporting depth of a US, but it does even the table a little to give countries like Aus a sporting chance!

Michael White
Reply to  H1H2
3 months ago

I’ve been working on sorting countries into division based on population. Under 10M, 10-99M, and 100M+. It changes the perspective greatly when you factor in a country’s population into performance.

Dodgerdog1988
3 months ago

Still nothing to hang our hats on. Team USA has floundered. Very disappointing…

Willswim
3 months ago

I prefer either this or total golds as a way to measure who’s winning. Counting total medals with each of them weighted equally is silly.

Nance
3 months ago

Interesting perspective on this meet of meets. Thanks for the number crunching, Michael!

Jimbo
3 months ago

Wait till you add in the Chinese diving scores…

Kevin
Reply to  Jimbo
3 months ago

It’s what the NCAA does so it’s fair and for an analysis like this they should be included. I still hate it.

Perhaps because the requirements for the depth of the pool to hold diving changed just before my freshman year in high school. Our pool was no longer deep enough (as were about 35% of all pools that high schools used in WI) so we had no where for divers to practice and hence no divers. The majority of our meets were on the road. Any time we swam a dual against a team with divers we just spotted them 11 points, which lost us at least 3 meets. Sometimes the other coach was cool and just entered… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Kevin
Andrew
Reply to  Jimbo
3 months ago

Indiana Diving and swimming

Bubba
3 months ago

Very fun way to look at the meet.

Tencor
3 months ago

This is the best way to measure depth, but the medal table is the most traditional way to measure who’s “winning” a meet.

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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