We, like a lot of people, were surprised by how big Auburn’s lead was over the Florida men, who seemed to be on fire, after two days of the SEC Championships. After two days, Auburn had 574 points to Florida’s 541.5, as compared to about a 4.5 point lead after two days last year.
Now, put in context that the 122.5 point lead at a conference championship meet, especially one where C finals are scored, isn’t as big as it would be at an NCAA Championship meet. However, this should still set things up for a fantastic team finish.
Given what happened on Wednesday, we thought it would be worth looking at where things shape up on Thursday, and how the teams could line up if everything breaks their way (or if nothing breaks their way).
There’s no diving on Thursday to factor in, and with Auburn generally dominating Florida there this year, that will give Florida a chance to make up some ground.
The splits for A finalists, B finalists, and C finalists:
| 400 IM – Auburn | 400 IM – Florida | 100 Fly – Auburn | 100 Fly – Florida | 200 Free – Auburn | 200 Free – Florida | |
| A Final | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| B Final | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| C Final | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Florida in total has 8 A finalists, to Auburn’s 4. Florida has 2 B finalists, with Auburn having 4. Florida has 3 C finalists, and Auburn just 2.
For those not yet acclimated to C-final scoring quite yet, reference the bottom of this page for a reference chart. In sum, A-finalists score between 22 and 32 points; B finalists score between 11 and 20 points, and C finalists score between 1 and 9 points.
So doing some quick numbers, if we consider the “average” score for an A finalists (27 points), a B finalist (15.5 points), and a C finalists (5 points), that would have Florida outscoring Auburn 262-180, conservatively, tonight.
That’s, of course, a very blunt look at it, but based on where different swimmers sit after prelims, both teams should come out about at that average when looking across the three finals. Florida has the best chance of ‘beating’ that estimate by a significant amount, because of the bonus points given for event wins, and Florida has the top seed in all three events, so call them a slight edge.
That means that a good prediction would be about a Florida +100 on the night. That means headed into the 4th of competition (out of 5), Auburn should have about a 20-point lead. Diving seeds mean even less than swimming seeds, but Auburn has the three top seeds on the men’s platform, where Florida will be fighting to get guys into the B-final. That should give Auburn a slight edge on the day overall. That should give Auburn right around a 20-30 point lead headed into Saturday where, with diving done, Florida should be able to make up the difference.
In other words, right now, we still see Florida as having a slight lead. One big DQ, however, could change that, and we’ve seen quite a few of those in this conference in the last 2 years. The men’s 100 back will be a key race for Auburn on Friday, as they’ll need to take advantage of an opportunity to extend their lead early in the Friday finals session.
C-final scoring chart.
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There seems to be an issue with the live results: On the men’s finals events from yesterday, it’s showing that 14th and 15th place receive 13 points each. Only on the men’s events, the women’s events seem to be scored correctly at a glance. It’s showing 13th is 14 points, 14th and 15th are 13 points, and 16th is 11.
Now, if the points listed there are wrong but the points being counted are correct, this is a non-issue, and I’m sure someone would have caught it and fixed it already if that weren’t the case. It’s worth pointing out, though.
Looking at last year’s schedule it looks like men’s diving took place on Thursday night, not Wednesday, which might explain the big difference in the day 2 scores. Also, just eyeballing it, it appears Auburn’s divers scored better this year and Florida’s scored worse in the 1M and 3M.
My prediction is Florida men will have a 10 – 12 point lead, certainly within 10 points. The diving the next day is tough, then 100 free and 400 free relay are comparative strengths for Auburn. Florida should win it.
Correct me if I’m wrong but for Florida’s A finalists – 4 in the 400IM, 2 in the 100Fly and 4 in the 200 Free adds up to 10 A finalists, not 8.
Florida won SECs last year by 200+ points with virtually the same personnel, and having the same issues with diving. I really don’t think it’s going to be a problem for them to win again, the margin just might not be quite as large. I think you can chalk that up to a little more parity in the conference as for instance Alabama’s men have stepped up their game.
I’m not sure what kind of diving Cal or Michigan have, but I think it’s safe to say Florida’s swimmers will not be getting any help from their divers
I don’t think Cal, Michigan, nor Florida have any divers that will affect the national championship…it is all on the swimmers this year for the men.
Does Stanford have the depth to be an NCAA player? They are also a candidate to make more points in diving. This Florida team is terrific and will be hard to beat. I’d not be too concerned about a second taper hangover…Florida trains so hard they can have the biggest rest budget without going stale on a second taper shave meet compared to most other programs.
Joel Lin, we’ll know more in a couple weeks, but it’s interesting you bring this up… Between Michigan, Cal, USC, Texas, Florida, Stanford, and Zona (pending Giles’ health) we have SEVEN teams who should score more than 300 points.
Add in Auburn, and then Georgia (medleys look good, Doug Reynolds coming around) scoring in the 200 neighborhood, plus the best Louisville team we’ve ever seen (all five relays in the top 10, three in the top 5 before this weekend), and we have the potential for some huge point dilution.
What does that mean? If these teams perform similar to last year, it would only take just over 400 points to win this year.
With each passing session, Florida looks more and more like the eventual national champ. Their top end swimmers are very good in each event. Of course, Cal and Michigan are looming as usual, but on paper, Florida looks great.
agreed – like Braden said, it is kind of confusing to see a team that is swimming lights out so far behind, but I think it will even up pretty quickly in the next 2 days. Florida just has so many top level stars that are capable of scoring at NCAAs – Cieslak, Rousseau, deBorde, Wallace, D’Arrigo, Main, Frayler, Elliott, Signorin, Solache, Omana. Kind of reminds me of Michigan last year