Late on Monday evening, the 2014 men’s pre-selection entry sheets were sent out, and while these don’t show officially where the cutoff lines will fall in individual races, it’s safe to presume that the top 16 are “locks” for NCAA Championship invites (we’ll do the math on where the number is expected to fall today).
See the pre-selection lists here.
We’ve gone ahead and scored the meet out based on where it would fall if the top 16 seeds fell exactly where they sit right now. While it’s far from a precise measurement, it does give fans a good idea of what their team needs to do, as compared to their seeds, to move up and win a title, a top 10 spot, etc.
One of the biggest limitations to this ranking is the lack of diving. That is being shored up this week, and even then seeds are fairly unreliable in diving, but we’ve denoted those teams that will be expecting a significant impact from their divers at NCAA’s with a (d).
Once again, for the second straight year, Florida and Michigan are seeded as the top two teams by points. Last year, Michigan was #1, and that carried them to an NCAA title. This year, it will be a much tighter battle. Anybody who wants to challenge those two teams is going to have to make some major moves; even Texas, with a potential of four or more scoring divers, will need their swimmers to outdo seed by several spots each in order to contend for the title.
A few rankings people might not have expected coming into the year:
- Alabama sits 10th. They went big at SEC’s, and while there’s some skepticism about if they’ll be able to carry that taper to NCAA’s, it almost doesn’t matter in a ‘big picture’ sense. That program has turned a corner.
- NC State comes in with the 3rd-most seeded points. Florida State has the 11th-most and a very good diving program. 2014 ACC Champion Virginia Tech is tied with in-state foes Virginia with 27 seeded points, and both hoping for diving contributions. Interesting twists in the ACC continue. NC State men this year remind you a little of the Tennessee women last year headed into NCAA’s, but without the divers.
- Stanford is only seeded 17th and to have 43 swimming points. Led by Kristian Ipsen, they’ll cash in huge in diving and have a good chance at moving into the top 10, but that swimming depth just isn’t there like it used to be.
- Cal, the Pac-12 Champions, are seeded only 4th going into NCAA’s. It would be a safe bet to peg them to out score their 252 seeded points, but can they make up the 140 to catch up to Michigan and Florida? Without diving it will be tough, but they’ve got more wiggle room in their relays, which can close that gap in a hurry if they’re able to leapfrog Michigan or Florida in any of them.
| Team | Seeded Points | |
| 1. | Florida | 391 |
| 2. | Michigan | 376 |
| 3. | NC State | 259 |
| 4. | Cal | 252 |
| 5. | Auburn | 234 (d) |
| 6. | Arizona | 230 (d) |
| 7. | Georgia | 204 |
| 8. | Texas | 165 (d+) |
| 9. | USC | 157 |
| 10. | Alabama | 140 |
| 11. | Florida St. | 133 (d) |
| 12. | Indiana | 130 (d+) |
| 13. | Tennessee | 127 (d) |
| 14. | Ohio State | 107 (d) |
| 15. | Louisville | 102 |
| 16. | Penn State | 87 |
| 17. | Stanford | 43 (d+) |
| 18. | Wisconsin | 39 |
| 19. | Minnesota | 37 (d) |
| 20. | Notre Dame | 35 |
| 21. | Texas A&M | 32 |
| 22. | UNLV | 30 |
| 23. | Virginia | 27 (d) |
| 24. | Virginia Tech | 27 (d) |
| 25. | Purdue | 25 (d) |
| 26. | West Virginia | 23 |
| 27. | Brown | 16 |
| 28. | Utah | 16 (d) |
| 29. | Northwestern | 16 |
| 30. | W. Kentucky | 14 |
| 31. | CSUB | 12 |
| 32. | UNC | 12 |
| 33. | Navy | 10 |
| 34. | Hawaii | 9 |
| 35. | Dartmouth | 9 |
| 36. | Yale | 7 |
| 37. | Penn | 6 |
| 38. | Wyoming | 5 |
| 39. | Arizona St. | 5 (d) |
| 40. | Missouri | 4 (d) |
| 41. | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 42. | Denver | 3 |
| 43. | Harvard | 3 (d) |
| 44. | South Carolina | 2 |
Here are my team predictions. I’ve been pretty accurate with these over the past 7 years. My methodology is very manual, so the only teams I evaluated are these 8, meaning that I wouldn’t be surprised if some upstarts like NC State or Louisvile move into the last 2 slots.
1. Florida, 420
2. Michigan, 384
3. Cal, 367
4. Texas, 356
5. Zona, 315
6. Auburn, 293
7. Stanford, 233
8. USC, 222
This meet among the top 4 wil be much tighter than last year. Of these teams, Texas has the most upside based on the number of bodies (16 swimmers and 4 divers), and the fact that they likely had the most guys not rested at conference.
You guys are underestimating Texas. They may not win it, but they’ll be in the mix. My full team predictions may come later tonight.
I love how this comedic thing is repeated annually.
Every year, there’s ALWAYS the same claim that in their conference meets, college A was shaved, college B was rested but not shaved, College C was rested but not tapered, etc etc
i wonder if anyone has ever entered the 500, 100 fly and 200 back at NCAAs like conger, let alone been top 8 worthy in all. Three events that are pretty much unrelated, shows how versatile he is
Along a similar note, I wonder who has won the greatest number of different individual events at NCAA’s? Has anyone ever won four or five different events over the course of their NCAA career?
Ryan Lochte got pretty close. He won the 200 IM, 400 IM, and 200 back. Was 2nd in the 100 back as a junior, then as a senior broke the NCAA record leading off a relay. He also finished 8th in the 1,650 and 9th in the 200 fly. Natalie Coughlin jumps out as someone else who could have done it, but Cal’s archives weren’t as easy to search through.
You could swim up to 5 individual events at NCAAs back then, but over three years (1982, 1983, 1984), Florida’s Tracy Caulkins won the 100/200 fly, 100 breast, 100/200/400 IM at NCAAs. She was also part of 400 MR, 400 FR and 800 FR relays that won NCAA titles during that time.
WAIT, I have the answers!!! Cal was shaved and tapered for conferences, Michigan was semi-tapered and shaved, Texas was neither, and Florida tapered and shaved the left half of their bodies. Therefore, Auburn will win the NCAA title. this is 100% true.
I see nothing objectionable with this. Congrats to Auburn!
For sure some of Michigan’s top swimmers were not tapered at big10’s…
All this analysis not only excludes relays but also diving. The top 8/16’s show CAL/MI/FL clear favorites.
I think Cal has the most left in the tank. Of Michigan, Cal, and UF, I am pretty sure Michigan and UF was completely shaved. Cal had a good sized group not shaved. Not really a Cal fan. I do also believe, there is a reason they have NCAA’s, so we can see who has the best teams the last weekend in March!
This is what people said last year too. And Michigan swam lights out.
And why would Florida, who arguably has the most big guns who need less rest to get into the meet, do that?
I think Florida, Cal, Michigan, Texas, and Stanford and Arizona all have a lot more in the tank.
I definitely agree that Cal has the most room to move up, and knowing their recent NCAA history, they should probably be the favorites. With that said, I don’t see Michigan losing, I think they have a few people who rested differently/less than last year for conference (Ortiz, Nielson, Jaeger).
I think most of the team will swim a little bit faster, and these 3 will drop some big time in Austin. I don’t feel like Florida has what it takes to get it done, but if they can show up and win those few tight races (200 IM) to get some team momentum, watch out. I see it going
1. Michigan
2. Cal
3. Florida
4.… Read more »