On the men’s side, there hasn’t been much mystery as of late about how the breaststroke races will shake out at the top. Arizona junior Kevin Cordes has been both dominating and consistent, and the only real question is typically what exactly his winning time will be. Obviously in the NCAA, nothing is a guarantee, but Cordes has to be considered one of the heaviest favorites in the nation right now in both his main events.
Cordes went 50.70 in December, breaking his own American record. Though the time has fallen off in droves in his 200 breast (Cordes went from 1:50.73 to 1:48.68 at NCAAs last year), time drops in the 100 have been harder to come by as Cordes’s long stroke can make short speed more difficult to come by. Still, Cordes has got to have a 50-point-low in mind, and there’s no doubt he’d love to eventually crack the 50-second barrier just as he broke 1:50 in the 200 last season.
Cordes’s 100 breaststroking partner on the U.S. National team at World Championships last summer was Georgia’s Nic Fink, and he’s probably the top contender to unseat Cordes as NCAA Champion. Fink was 51.25 to win SECs, and depending on how much he’s got left for the national championships, he could potentially make this the first NCAA race ever with two men sub-51.
Second to Fink at SECs was Alabama freshman Anton McKee. McKee also competed at those world championships for Iceland, though his event lineup actually didn’t include the 100 breast. He’s a unique combo swimmer, competing in the 500 free as well as both breaststrokes at the NCAA Championships (he swam the 400 free, 800 free and 400 IM at Worlds in addition to the 200 breast). It’ll be interesting to see if McKee has the speed to run with the top two, as he should clearly have the endurance.
One of the bigger mysteries of the field is perennial Big Ten powerhouse Cody Miller. The Indiana senior has a history of dominating at the conference level but failing to maintain that high level of swimming at NCAAs. This year, though, Miller seems to have made a conscious decision to make NCAAs his only focus – he was fast at Big Tens, but didn’t seem to be fully rested, and it cost him his championship streak. Miller was two races away from sweeping the 100 and 200 breasts all four years of his career at Big Tens, but he dropped the 100 breast this season to Michigan’s Richard Funk while failing to match his own Big Ten record from a year ago. Miller will hope that taking some focus off of conference championships will allow him to finally break through at NCAAs. He qualified for the A final last year, but was disqualified for an illegal double-dolphin kick, so that’s another storyline to keep an eye on this week.
Last year’s runner-up was Cordes’s Arizona training partner Kevin Steel, who has some of the best short speed in the nation. Steel headed up the American 50 breaststroke delegation at Worlds, taking 12th. He’s pretty much the opposite of Cordes, who seems to heat up as the race goes on. Steel can get up to top speed early and really keys on these shorter breaststroke races.
In terms of the team battle, this could be a significant event for the Michigan Wolverines in their defense of the NCAA title. Michigan has two potential A-finalists in the event, Big Ten champ Richard Funk and all-purpose sprinter Bruno Ortiz. Both have already been 51 this year. The Canadian Funk was third in this event last year, while Ortiz struggled to a 16th place finish at nationals. If both can hit the A final this year, the points swing will be great for Michigan, as Florida and Cal are each only seeded to have one point-scorer and both are lower than Funk and Ortiz.
Missouri’s Sam Tierney is a returning A-finalist, though he’s seeded way back at 22 this season. He was only 53.03 after putting up multiple 52-mids last season, so there’s a strong chance he’s saved some rest for the national championships.
Harvard-t0-Cal transfer Chuck Katis will look to put up big points for his new team. He went 52.69 chasing Cordes at Pac-12s, though he didn’t have a great NCAA meet last year.
Arizona could have a trio of high point scorers this year – sprinter Brad Tandy will try to do what USC’s Vlad Morozov did a year ago, ruling the sprint freestyles but also branching out enough to put points on the board in the 100 breast. A few more threats to make the championship heat are Purdue’s Lyam Dias who’s had a breakout year and sits 8th, Florida’s Eduardo Solaeche-Gomez, the 7-seed for a potential NCAA title contender, and Conference-USA star Fabian Schwingenschlogl, a German competing for Western Kentucky.
Top 8 picks with seed times:
1. Kevin Cordes, Arizona – 50.70
2. Nic Fink, Georgia – 51.25
3. Cody Miller, Indiana – 51.50
4. Kevin Steel, Arizona – 52.58
5. Anton McKee, Alabama – 51.70
6. Richard Funk, Michigan – 51.75
7. Sam Tierney, Missouri – 53.03
8. Bruno Ortiz, Michigan – 51.92
Darkhorse: Tom Dahlia, Louisville. The Cardinals seem to be getting better and better every year, and Joao de Lucca showed last year that this crew can do some damage on the national scale. De Lucca’s big swimming has to be a confidence booster to his teammate Dahlia, the AAC champ who should have more time to drop against stiffer competition.
I think Katis’ performance last year can be attributed to how the Ivy league teams approach their conference meet, I think swimming at Cal is a lot more geared towards NCAAs and I think he has a solid shot to get into that A final, but I’m not sure who you knock out then.
Last year, Katis qualified in December and trained through Ivy League Champs. That strategy didn’t work out – ultimately, he got sick the week of NCAAs, and barely swam at all. Under Cal’s program, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 51 out of him.
Cool how your articles are commenting stroke by stroke. Good stuff, Jared. Thanks.
Miller may have been just as tapered for conference this year as he was last year. The only difference is, is that he decided to leave the double dolphin kick at home. I attended Big Tens this year and last year, and his double dolphin kick was very, very obvious at conference last year. The IU 400 medley relay got DQ’d for it, but he somehow got away with it every other time (except for at NCAAs, when he was DQ’d for it as well). This year, he had clean pullouts which seemed to result in slower times.
I think we’ll see 3 guys under 51… and it will take a sub 52 swim to get in the A.
Would love to see Fink and Steel step up and challenge Cordes here in the shorter race. Is Steel likely to swim the 200 Meley Relay at the start of both sessions? Or will he and Cordes swim both relays, splitting the prelims/finals duties?